To get any cold you have to go to Northern Scandinavia in mountains.

Looks like the ski season will suffer as well +123z:

The synoptics in the latter half of the 12z ECM op run are interesting, At a glance the picture looks the same as before (milder than average and unsettled) however the progression is interesting when you look at it from a N hemisphere perspective.

Can I ask - How is that interesting? Looks like another cold plunge into the NE states and more milder weather and cyclogenesis for the UK

Patterns are just increasingly warm! Would say we are living during a tipping point in the climate where frost might even disappear for lengthy periods. Euro highs look like they are extra stubborn now

You posted a single chart at day 15? I guess you didn’t understand my comment. It’s not the synoptics at one time point, it is the progression and I was referring to the second half of the 0-240 hr time period not the extended part that was not available at the time I wrote the post. If you look at the northern hemisphere view and the transition from day 5 or 6 to day 10 you will see what I mean. An isolated chart at day 15 rather misses the point I was making.

i agree the single chart you posted isn’t overly interesting from a wintry point of view, but I never said it was.

Yes the general consensus currently is a mild and unsettled picture.

PS: Just looked at the ensemble, the OP is very much an outlier with the wind speed for that day. 

Frightening? Encouraging. 

Hi Gandalf, I cannot find this link - having searched the threads under weather and Science & Nature. Can you post in this thread - it is after all relevant to interpretation of the model anomalies. Not that want to be frightened - as I get enough of that every time I listen to the news on the economy or the bunkum politicians spout!! LOL, but we need to know the inconvenient truth. Thank you.

Yes, climate change is generally good for the UK  but a disaster for other parts of the world as we have already seen in Asia recent weeks, which will fuel climate refugees forced flee to western countries which someone like you will hate

So its not encouraging. It is a disaster for us all

Indeed, Brian. If December plays out as the output currently suggests then there might be a chance of this December being the mildest on record. As you say though, November started with near-exceptional mildness with some discussion then of last month possibly being the mildest November on record, and yet look at how quickly we went from that to a rather colder spell for a while. At the moment, it's too early to be sure and we shall just have to wait and see how things play out over the remaining three-and-a-half weeks of this month.

GFS Op omits the LP Tue 9th but continues to produce LP in mid Atlantic; 985mb Fri 12th, filling and forming a trough over Ireland with direct S-lies for the rest of Britain Sun 14th; 960mb  Rockall Wed 17th with strong SW-lies back again; 960mb N Ireland Fri 19th, this one crossing Britain and followed by W-lies. Strong jet stream mostly running near S Britain with only a brief break around Sat 13th.

ECM does have the small LP Tue 9th, but over N Ireland; then LP as above mid Atlantic but remaining active near the Faeroes with colder W-lies by Mon 15th, moving to mid-Norway by Fri 19th with a cold N-ly behind it. Less chance of a date record with this model.

AIFS: London, maximum Wed 10th 14C, dipping before returning to 10-12C Mon 15th, rain at intervals, perhaps briefly drier around Fri 12th. Edinburgh, maxima mostly 8-9C but down and up in the second week. Rain as for London

GEFS: at T+180 most perturbations have LP near NW Britain and S/SW-lies for Britain itself. Very mild to Thu 11th (brief dry spell at that date) then mean near norm, rain heavy at first and then in smaller amounts later, more persistent in W.

I could have saved  myself a lot of typing by just putting "Unsettled and mild"!

The ECM +72 really sums up winter model watching during the past decade. Such potential up north but absolutely no chance of it being realised due to those pesky southern heights. 

* Sorry guys, but cannot fathom how to attach supporting evidence! I did click on what appears to be an image icon, but it didn't work as planned

Welcome to TWO. 😊👍

I've just moved your follow up post to the breakout thread which more suited to OT discussion. See here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1669752-Model-output-breakout-thread 

Id say it was the beginning of a new trend, but actually, Im just hoping its the end of the current trend.

The 0z GFS is one run that does try to break the cycle, by showing the blocking over the Arctic ridging southwards in thr 6-8 day period. But it's too far west to really impact us, and quickly gets pushed back north by the next bout of raging cyclogenesis over Baffin/Labrador.

Overall though there's generally very little to get excited about cold wise on any of the main models. Other than taking a model watching break, for me it's a case of chasing transient cold sectors bringing snow to the Scottish mountains and whether any of the LPs deepens enough to bring any strong winds. The latter more interesting in theory than practice if it ended up windy enough to cause damage! 

Silver linings to the current set up being most areas will see fairly significant rainfall, so deprived areas have a chance to replenish stocks and it's keeping heating bills down. (Appreciate some areas don't need any more wet weather though).

Windy IMBY:-

Wintry for some (it's deep FI and won't look like this next run obviously!):-

A wet 10 days ahead for most places, following a wet first few days of December:-

Slim pickings I guess but being odd I do enjoy proper rainfall, at least it means the weather's doing something and not just drizzly and mild. 

Probably just crumbs, but seems interesting:

https://www.wxcharts.com/api/contentwithoverlay/gfs_op/EUR_NA/850temp/2025-12-05T06:00:00Z/2025-12-11T18:00:00Z