I'm not aware of any model that is available to us that shows charts from now right up until the end of February? 

The furthest ahead that any model runs that I know of go is mid-December, and that's not even a third of the way through the winter.

GLOSEA does, and of course CFS. Not that I'd put much faith in the latter!

Here's the chart for the 1st March next year:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/39/5576/cfs_0_2112swm3.png 

There are numerous models which go this far ahead. Copernicus is the best site to check them.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/ 

Also, the ECMWF sub-seasonal model goes out 46 days and GEFS 35 days. So GEFS reaches into January.

Thanks for correcting me Brian, and Darren too. 👍

What I would say in response to The Dun Version's post is that none of us can be anywhere near sure at this time, that this winter overall be the mildest/warmest on record even if the models, or most of them, are currently indicating that. No-one here needs me to tell them that long-term forecasting is still far from an exact science as there are so many variables involved and I have been following the model output for more than long enough now (since 2005) to know that the model output is often as fickle as the weather itself is in this country.

All we can say for sure at the moment is that based on current output, the first half of December looks rather unsettled and mild. Beyond that, we can only really speculate at this time.

I agree David and don’t worry the poster to which you refer never (and I mean never) posts anything other than one liners with no analysis and quietly slips away when things go in a different direction.

As you say the outlook has gone from looking generally average a few days ago to looking a bit milder than average and generally unsettled for the next couple of weeks. Milder conditions would have to be favoured bsed on the output for the reliable time period but I find it’s best to take it one or two days at a time and look for trends. There are a few tantalising charts in the ensembles but they are very much in the minority currently and should be viewed in that light.

As for the extended charts (beyond the next couple of weeks or even before then), the standard deviations tell you all you need to know about the uncertainty. Based on precedent, climate and recent history saying it will be mild for the rest of the winter takes little forecasting skill, just a probability-based guess. On the other hand to predict the “warmest winter ever” is a very brave call given the current limitations in long range or seasonal forecasting from even the world’s experts.

In short mildish and unsettled for the reliable, after that maybe more of the same, maybe not.

Yes probably mostly this winter but despite  this and those wretched heights to the south the NE of our region has been interesting...wonder if this winter will be maybe a " one hit wonder "...1987 was I'd take that...

I think it's worth noting there has also been an increase in blocking areas of high pressure over the near continent in recent decades during the summer months. 

That is frightening really - roughly 4c above average throughout. 

FAX: depressions being generated off Newfoundland and running to wards Britain where they dump rain, fill and move on to make way for the next (969mb off W Ireland Fri 5th, 972mb S of Iceland Sun 7th, 969mb approaching Biscay Mon 8th. Winds mostly S/SW-ly but with occasional recurving E/SE-lies for N Scotland.

GFS Op: as FAX; the last LP in that sequence runs N-wards up the W coast Tue 9th, and replaced by 970mb SW Ireland Fri 12th, also running N-wards. Then a brief local storm off NW Scotland 955mb Mon 15th before the LP track shifts towards Iceland, and there's a modest rise of pressure over S Britain (not as much as shown yesterday; 1035mb N France Fri 19th)

ECM: similar to GFS but after 15th a week of strong SW-lies between LP Iceland and HP France without major developments in either of those.

AIFS: London maxima rising to 13C Tue 9th, then slowly dropping back to 10C, small amounts of rain from time to time. Edinburgh, similar timing but 12C on the 9th and dropping back to 5C. Rain mostly in the first week, drier after 15th.

GEFS: mean temp 2 or 3C above norm in S, occasionally more marked peaks in first week. close to norm in the N,  modest amounts of rain on many days, perhaps drier after 15th, but always likely to be heavy on the SW/W coasts. At T+180, only P12 offers any relief from the SW-ly pattern, and that only  a weak NE-ly for N Scotland.

Nor is it much different to how it's been for most of the year.

The accumulated rainfall on both the GFS and ECM accompanied with near consistantly mild temperatures in the low double digits is a pretty depressing thing to see (albeit short-term depressing considering how early in the season we are!). 

I tend to study the jet stream more than anything else and its long tongue is persistantly licking the south of the country, which is all i need to know for now. 

Hoping for better output in the coming days. 

My previous optimism has waned and this set-up historically takes a fair bit to get out of. Odds on now for an unsettled, mild period lasting well into December. 

I recommend the video to which I provided a link in the Environment thread if you would like to understand better just how frightening things look.

Yes, that’s as much of a concern, since this isn’t an unusual blip but part of a clear pattern.

I've noticed that there's a lot of cyclogenesis off the north-west US/Canada, far more than usual. The lows are actually penetrating far inland - with the remnants getting right across the country to emerge off the east coast - and beefing up the cyclogenesis around Baffin/Labrador. I'd imagine that BC/Washington/Oregon/even California are having wetter-than-usual weather.

There's also still a persistent tendency for high pressure over the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean, and a recurring high pressure over the GIN Sea.

We're just stuck under persistent low pressure.

But the overall pattern doesn't look 'normal' to me. And I can't shake the sense that we're only a few moves away from something good (but the final pieces seem jammed in place!)

Possibly, but I'm not really sure I agree. Look at the anomaly on the latest GEFS update.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Model-output-breakout-thread 

Run after run being fairly consistent.  Its going to be one of those years again isnt it  😃