Agreed, the there is definitely something in the air, quite a change from only a few days ago. Nice to have something to focus on again. 

FAX: LPs somewhere between mid-Atlantic and W Scotland all week, 960-980mb, and fronts crossing Britain all the while (no less than 4 separate frontal systems on Wednesday!)

GFS Op; similar to FAX (though a breakaway LP 985mb runs SE-wards past Cornwall on Thu) The procession of LPs continues to Thu 11th when the last LP in sequence crosses Scotland to join a Scandinavian LP, and in its wake a ridge of HP arises over Britain Fri 12th. That lasts until Tue 16th when it gets squeezed out between LPs 1005mb Baltic and a dartboard LP 945mb mid-Atlantic (a moot point whether the NE-lies from the former or S-lies from the latter win out).

ECM: Very much like GFS

AIFS: London, maxima mostly 10C, milder days around  Mon 8th and Sat 13th, rain in small amounts in most days. Edinburgh, similar trends in maxima but 8C rather than 10C, perhaps drier interludes Wed 3rd and Thu 11th. 

GEFS: mean temps near norm to Wed 17th, rain in most ens members on most days, in the S & W, less rain in the east, and possibly dry for a time this week in the far NE,  The spectacularly cold Op run noted yesterday is till there from Sat 13th but scaled back, though now accompanied by a couple of other ens members - and contradicted by a very mild control run.

The interest seems to focus on the week of Sun 14th: will the NE-lies prevail (Op run) or the SW-lies (control run)?

Going just on IMBY stats I need Dec to come in at 6 or lower for my annual figure to be lower than last year. IMO the mid to long term has trended milder over the last day or two, from mostly average to above, so as you say re the CET generally, I'm going with a decent chance that I'll be warmer than last year.

Looking into deep FI on the GEFS there's obviously a very weak signal for blocking to set up somewhere favourable to colder weather for the UK, albeit most of the ens either stay unsettled or have HP in unfavourable positions and mild or very mild as a result.  ECM ens suggest something similar. 

I'm firmly in mild first half of December camp/mode at present, whether the little hints of cold after mid month strengthen TBC but gut feel says no this year. No idea why I'm lacking in optimism atm, just seems like the weather is in more of a zonal mood, versus last year where HP came back much sooner than the models initially showed. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1669105-Model-output-breakout-thread 

Not sure which period and location you're referring too, but the TWO London ECM ENS plot is above the average for much of the period.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t23883-Media-Thread-15th-January-2024-onwards 

Yes - the GFS FI eye candy was a mirage - of many over the years - the teasing straws of a cold incursion - like a Jacob Marley ghost of Christmases past. 

And sadly many allow themselves to get suckered because they want to believe it.  I guess that's why scammers and snake oil politicians are so successful.  We should be thankful that climate change for us is rather benign compared to what is happening in Asia, Africa and elsewhere. 

Or, in other words, normal service has been resumed. It's not too much of a surprise though as mentioned a few days ago, neither of the previous two November displacement SSWs led to much of note for us in the following weeks. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512010000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512150000 

FAX: Current LP 986mb NW Scotland replaced on Thu by another and then on Fri by yet another 969mb off W Ireland - and yet another winding up off Newfoundland on Sat, all pushing fronts and troughs across Britain from the SW.

GFS Op: As Fax, and continues the procession of LPs: that from Newfoundland pushes a small disturbance ahead 970mb W Scotland Sun 7th before the main LP arrives 965mb Rockall Wed 10th. This splits with one part off to Norway and the other crossing England 980mb Fri 12th. The next LP stalls off Ireland as pressure rises over the N Sea Sun 14th and strengthens 1045mb S Norway Thu 18th while the LP slides S-wards to Spain generating E/SE-ly winds for England.

ECM: Like GFS but does not split on Wed 10th, instead rather more of a smeared out are of LP stretching from Scotland to N Spain. Rather than moving S to Spain this area drifts E-wards and pressure over Britain rises from the S rather than the east Wed 17th.

AIFS: London, maxima 9-10C but milder (13C) Mon 8th and Tue 16th, rain at frequent intervals, perhaps drier later. Edinburgh, maxima about 7C with brief milder periods as for London (Tue 16th, 13C !), rain mostly w/b Thu 4th, dry-ish later

GEFS: mean temp slightly below norm at first, then a degree or two above with quite good ens agreement (the remarkably cold outliers shown during the last couple of days have disappeared). Rain in many runs on many days, heaviest in the west.

The repetitive unsettled theme is much in evidence today, with less support for E/NE-lies from Scandinavia than shown previously - yes it's  still there in the GFS Op but ECM and the majority of ens members aren't co-operating. Back to the drawing board!

Blocking with a very small 'b' IMO; only P15 takes advantage of a decline in the advance of Atlantic LPs to produce anything of a serious easterly influence

Well it's blocking, I guess. But on the Op at least, it's not at all well-positioned, and it's not a cold feed.

I'm getting pretty disheartened now. Run after run across all models is showing a lot of blocking over the Arctic - but not in the specific place we want it to be. Meanwhile, high pressure over the continent is also largely aligned wrong for us (oh look, cold air reaching Greece...😒), leaving most MO showing a spell of weather for the first half of December that's dominated by low pressure stuck over us (hemmed in on all sides).

Given how wet it has been recently and looks likely to be over the coming week or so, I think many people will be hoping the suggestions of a drier spell as is being suggested in some model runs will come to pass even if it isn't especially cold. We could certainly do with a drier spell here for one thing.

I no longer have much optimism about decent winter weather. However, I wouldn't worry too much about the current output, at least not yet. There's a decent signal for blocking. However, any blocking shown is 12 to 14 days away. So not only could the blocking be swept away before then, if it does arrive, there's plenty time for the details to change. When it's a conveyor belt of Atlantic weather, there's not much room for subtlety or variation. But relatively small changes to circulation can make big changes to temperature in a more blocked set up. As I say, I've lost most of my winter optimism but I wouldn't write things off yet.

If the 12z is to be believed, we are nailed on, not only for a record warm December, but a record warm CET year too. Some crazy temperatures being predicted for mid month, possibly 15-17c. Unbelievable.