MetO rainfall charts show bands of showery rain moving west to east this week, esp Wed & Thu, and then heavier and persistent rain from the south at the weekend affecting as far north as C England, rotating round a centre off Cornwall. FAX generally agrees, though the LP responsible for the weekend rain is still out on the Atlantic on the final chart, and likely to move in rapidly.

GFS Op 00z; in accordance with above at first, LP covering Britain this week, centred ca 980mb close to N Scotland with W/NW-lies. This model then differs, with an LP developing near Newfoundland, crossing the Atlantic very quickly, but heading for N Scotland (NOT S England) 980mb Mon 15th with SW-lies generally and fairly settled in S England. This LP then slows down over Scandinavia with a ridge of HP over Britain Thu 18th, lasting a few days while LPs run NE-ly between Scotland and Iceland. Finally one of these slows down enough to visit Scotland 985mb Thu 25th.

ECM; starts out like GFS and also send LP to Scotland Mon 15th but then no rise in pressure, instead new LP from SW deepens and reaches Irish Sea 975mb Thu 18th, looking stormy but moving on quickly

GEM; again starts like GFS but holds the LP over Scotland from Mon 15th to Thu 18th, then switches its allegiance to ECM and shows LP about to come in across Ireland.

AIFS; London, maxima high teens to Sat 20th then cooler, rain from time to time, heaviest Mon 15th and Sat 20th. Edinburgh, maxima 13-15C throughout, rain at any time but heaviest as for London

GEFS; in the S, temps a couple of degrees below norm for the next week (one warmer day Sun 14th), but no ens agreement after Wed 17th. Rain likely to be heavy Sun 14th, then most runs forecasting dry. In the N, also cool to 17th, then less of a spread so 'mean near norm' more realistic, rain around Thu 11th as well as 14th, and quite frequent after that esp in NW.

Place your bets on the MetO versus the rest; where is the weekend LP from the Atlantic going to end up?

ECM has a nasty storm for the South on Wed 17th.   Yuk

ECM and GEM similar to GFS

AIFS; London, maxima 15-17C, rain at intervals, esp Thu 18th with a cooler day then). Edinburgh, maxima 13-15C, also rain at intervals, heaviest Sat 20th.

GEFS; mean temp a couple of degrees below norm for the next week, one warm day Sun 14th; big spread of ens members after Wed 17th, most keeping below norm but mean dragged higher by some hot outliers up to 10C above. Rain at intervals for the first week gradually drying up in the S

Models in much better agreement when a a mobile westerly pattern is  established

Models appears to be coming together with the idea of widespread strong wind and persistent rain across the bulk of the UK nearer to the time - this Sunday. Even though the past couple or so days has actually been pretty pleasant with Summer-like conditions here at my end of Kent, Autumn does seem quite keen to get started early this year. 

It's looking like a very unsettled and fairly cool month now. This is certainly not the 'modern era' extension of Summer September that a lot of people go on about.

Yes, an 80s style September! Except there dont seem to be any Daddy long legs or conkers around this year!  Lets hope we get an 80s style winter to follow

Daddy Long Legs larvae would have needed lush grass roots to chew on, in short supply this year.

But I've seen lots of conkers around here, even if they seem smaller than usual.

Plenty of both up here, in this part of the rural, East Midlands.

FAX keeps a deep LP somewhere between N Scotland and Iceland 975-985mb to Sat 13th with troughs and fronts crossing Britain (the NW especially wet). A new LP arrives from the Atlantic 978 mb off W Ireland Sun 14th with an active set of fronts moving from SW to NE through the day, and some hangback  in the east even after it has moved into the northern N Sea on Monday 15th.

GFS Op 00z; Agrees with Fax above. Then a couple more LPs pass close to N Scotland during the week to Sat 20th while HP increasingly affects the SE, and on Tue 23rd a new HP cell 1025mb covers Britain, lasting a couple of days before LP pushes in from the Atlantic. By Sat 27th this LP is centred near Iceland and, interestingly, has an ex-hurricane caught up in its circulation heading for N Britain.

ECM; like GFS/FAX  but more of a hangback, the last of the LP not departing the UK until Wed 17th.

AIFS; London, maxima in high teens throughout, significant rain for Mon 15th (not Sun) & bits and pieces at other times. Edinburgh, maxima near 15C, rain at intervals throughout

GEFS; in the S mean mostly below norm to Wed 17th with good ens agreement, then a spread of temps with the majority of runs close to norm but a few very warm outliers (op especially at 10C above). Heavy rain Sun 13th, Tue 15th and Fri 18th, not entirely dry later. In the N, mean temps stay close to or a little below norm with less of a spread of ens members, rain spread across most days with no defined peaks. In both N & S  always heavier in the west, far NE dry to start and finish with

Not 100% sure we're done with very warm weather this year. 

FAX shows weather dominated by LP. Today and tomorrow 986mb Iceland pushing troughs across Britain; then Sun/Mon 14th/15th from the Atlantic 982mb crossing S Scotland, some strong winds in S England as it departs (MetO warning); then Tue 16th 975mb heading for SW Ireland. MetO rainfall shows a band of heavy rain Sun/Mon for all moving NE-wards with some hanging back in the SW; the system Tue/Wed delivers more to Wales and the NW.

GFS Op 0z; the above systems also show up in GFS, the last of them getting to the N Sea 990mb Wed 17th. Pressure then rises and warm air arrives from the south Sat/Sun 20th/21st as the next LP stalls off S Ireland 990 mb, but eventually moves in as a broad trough early the following week. The excitement then comes as an ex-hurricane but still a potent storm arrives 990mb Bristol Channel Thu 20th and deepens as it runs N-wards to Scotland, only slowly filling by Sun 27th.

ECM; like GFS to Wed 17th but then a small LP crosses S Scotland Fri 19th which delays the development of HP until after the weekend 1030mb covering the whole country on Mon 22nd

GEM; more like ECM, but that LP is deeper and a day later N Scotland 990mb Sat 20th before the HP comes in on the Monday

AIFS; London, maxima high teens with a dip Sun 21st, recovering (NB contrary to GFS) , rain at times in the coming week, dry after 21st. Edinburgh, similar to London but near 15C rather than high teens.

GEFS; In the S, cool to Wed 17th (a warm pulse on 14th), then mean and most ens members near or a little below normal temps but significant number of warm outliers notably Op +10C on Sun 20th; rain from time to time in many runs, driest Tue 16th. In the N temp profile similar (but no extra warmth on 14th), and no consistently dry periods

Secondary storm on Wed looking worse for the south than sunday 

Maybe; max wind gusts from Meto widely just below 50mph Sun/Mon but only 30mph Wed.

Neither quite the 'killer 80mph storm' which appeared in a notification on my phone from Kent Online

Still going to be fun in my tent for a week away. Thankfully looks like N Yorkshire may be spared the worst 

FAX charts for the week ahead present the N Atlantic including Britain as a tangle of depressions and associated fronts. Starting with 983mb Iceland today, tomorrow a developing LP swings in from the Atlantic and by Mon 15th is 982mb Inner Hebrides with strong winds on its southern flank; as this moves on it is replaced by a new LP 985mb off N Ireland Wed 17th with active fronts over England; and a trailing front embeds a potential LP 1015mb near the Azores.

GFS Op 00z; has all the features of FAX above with the final 'potential LP' arriving Eire 995mb Sun 21st. For much of the following week there is a stand-off between LP typically 960mb mid/N Atlantic and HP typically 1030mb Germany with strong mild SW-lies esp for W Britain. Both of these fade out and pressure rises over Britain 1030mb England Sun 28th Sep. The final chart (Mon 29th) has the hurricane mentioned yesterday, but is now keeping it close to Canadian Maritimes and not crossing the Atlantic.

ECM; has a less active Atlantic than GFS. The LP Wed 17th fills as soon as it arrives and only achieves 1005mb. By Sun 21st pressure has risen over Britain and any LP is well out in the N Atlantic; pressure then continues to rise and on Tue 23rd is 1030mb Wales with a ridge to the SW

GEM; more like GFS though LP 21st is north of Scotland before the 'stand-off' sets in. The SW-lies may well bring an ex-hurricane north from the Azores, present there Tue 23rd.

AIFS; London, maxima rising to 20C Sat 20th then dipping to 15C with rain Tue 23rd before recovering, small amounts of rain at other times. Edinburgh maxima rising to 16C Thu 18th, dipping to 12C Mon 22nd before rising again, rain present from time to time esp Wed 24th.

GEFS; in the S temps up and down either side of norm to Sun 21st, then a wide spread of ens members developing but mean stays near norm; rain most likely tomorrow and in week beginning Wed 17th but forecast by one run or another on many days. In the N less variation in temps and rain more likely at any time though less in the NE later on.

A n unsettled picture for the next few  days but after that rather muddled.

 https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850cairngorms0.png 

GFS 06z delays the arrival of Sunday storm. maybe 5pm in London. Peak winds 8pm.  Other models different though. 

I have an outdoor event tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon, and it now looks as if the rain along the south coast will hold off at least for a couple of hours

FAX charts are useful for tracking fronts and depressions in spells of mobile weather, currently showing

- LP 984mb N Ireland Mon 15th tracking E-wards, conventional wrap of fronts but close isobars and gales for the south

- LP 989mb N Ireland Wed 17th, a repeat of Monday, but hanging around NE Scotland through Thu

- final chart Thu 18th with 3 contenders on the Atlantic, 1007mb near Iceland (more a tangle of fronts but in in the usual breeding ground for depressions), a well-developed conventional LP 997mb mid N Atlantic or 1014mb near Azores, not much at the moment but could run swiftly along the trailing front linking it to the Channel

GFS Op 00z; confirms the above, and then favours the conventional LP to arrive SW Ireland 995mb Sun 21st. After this there is a general rise of pressure for Britain, with an Atlantic LP drifting slowly SE-wards into Biscay by Thu 25th. The hurricane which has been giving the models problems is today shown in full force W of Azores Sat 27th, but fills rapidly as it moves towards Spain, pumping up warm air into Britain under HP 1025mb Tue 30th, but this must be regarded with low confidence.

ECM; like GFS at first. The 'conventional' LP moves through more quickly and is off NE Scotland Sun 21st with briefly N-ly gales before HP settles over Scotland and a small but possibly thundery LP moves N from France to the English Channel 1015 mb Wed 24th. GEM agrees with this

AIFS; London, maxima on a rise to 20C Sat 20th then dropping back to 15C with rain principally Tue 23rd. Edinburgh, maxima mostly around 15C but lower for a few days from Sun 21st, rain frequent until the 23rd then drying up with big swings between daily max/min (cf conventional ECM forecast with HP over Scotland at that time)

GEFS; temps below norm to start with then a warm spell in the S (4 to 5C above norm) 17th-21st but flatlining at norm in Scotland , then mean and most ens members close to norm out to end of month. Not a great deal of rain at any time in the far S, perhaps some on 17th and then later on (overall decrease from yesterday); in N England and Scotland persistent for the next week and also some big totals in some runs at end of month; 

FAX; current LP 985mb N Ireland with fronts in its circulation soon off to Scandinavia, soon replaced by new LP running across N Ireland to N Scotland 986mb Thu 18th with stormy weather there and a trailing front across England. By Fri 19th this, too, has moved on, and pressure is generally low across Britain with a broad trough of LP 1000mb from mi-Atlantic to Norway incorporating fronts lying across both N Scotland and C England.

GFS Op 0z also picks up these features though LP Thu 18th tracks clear of N Scotland, A local but deep LP develops within the broad trough Sun 21st 995mb  S Ireland but only slowly clears to Holland while there is a general rise of pressure for Britain 1020-1025mb Thu 25th. After that, outcomes depend on the unpredictable behaviour of a hurricane, in full strength mid-Atlantic Fri 26th (945mb if you can count the isobars?) but making no progress and slowly transforming into a N Atlantic depression by Wed 1st. During this period Britain is close to a Baltic high 1025mb with warm S-ly winds.

ECM like GFS but the ex-hurricane only just visible as a weak feature on the 25th (last chart)

GEM like GFS at first but LP from Sun 21st moves to NW Scotland and sticks there, filling, and by Thu 25th combines with a much weaker ex-hurricane (and HP over Spain) to generate a spell of strong SW-lies for Britain, mild but maybe not as warm as GFS.

AIFS; London, maxima reaching 22C Sat 20th, then dropping away to 15C until end of Sept, a little rain Wed 17th and rather more 22nd/23rd. Edinburgh, maxima at 16C to Sat 20th, dipping before recovering to around 15C, rain frequent to Mon 22nd then dry. 

GEFS; in the S, temp rising sharply to 7C above norm for a few days around Fri 19th, dropping just as sharply to 5C below Tue 23rd, recovering to norm Rain, not much, most likely either side of 23rd. In the N, the initial warmth is absent but the drop around the 23rd is there and recovery to norm delayed by op and control which are both cool outliers. Heavy rain in many runs around Sun 21st, and irregularly in a few runs at other times.

It will be interesting to see if AIFS can do any better with ex-hurricanes that the conventional models, which struggle.

GFS 12Z shows a very interesting temperature progression from Friday to Monday. 🥵🥶

I never record a single day time single digit in Epsom that time from my records?  Well if that true many need to try to warm their properties on Friday as I will do the same if here going to be 23C and store the warmth to avoid heating costs.  

I don't think I have either. It's much colder than any of the MOGREPS-G runs.

FAX - the fronts currently plaguing N Scotland are dispersed tomorrow (Wed) when a new Atlantic LP ca 980 mb runs past NW Scotland on to the Norwegian Sea by Fri 19th. It leaves a legacy of trailing fronts over England, eventually becoming a trough 1013mb C England Sat 20th. MetO shows the trailing front rather active even after the extensive area of rain has moved through on Wed, the front is over N England Thu moving N into S Scotland, then a fresh burst from the SW on Fri 19th moving first N to the Scottish border and then back S-wards by Sun 21st.

GFS Op - Saturday's trough above sticks around over the N Sea and the Low Countries, dragging in N-lies for the E Coast while Ireland is under a ridge of HP. This lasts to Thu 25th when LP moves in from the west deepening 985 mb Isle of Wight Sat 26th as it moves SE-wards. New broad ridge of HP covers Britain from the SW for the following week, while an ex-hurricane, prominent near the US Fri 26th moves N-wards to Greenland and fills

ECM - like GFS but places the persistent trough closer to Britain so cooler weather for all of England, not just the E coast

AIFS - London, after 25C Fri 19th, consistently 15C from Sun 21st onwards, spits of rain from time to time. Edinburgh, 15C on the 19th dropping to 12C with rain by the 21st, temps then recover slowly to 15C. Dry around Sat 27th with big diurnal variation.

GEFS - London 10C above norm Fri 19th, 5C below Mon 22nd, back to norm Thu 26th; rain most likely for a few days from the 21st, in some runs at other times and more likely to the east of London. Edinburgh, smaller rise and bigger dip, rain from Fri 19th. N England more like London, N Scotland more like Edinburgh but rather less rain

next atlantic hurricane showing up now, likely to affect us, perhaps help us with  indian summer or just fire up the jet?