With the trees still fully dressed, strong winds could cause problems in southern Britain on Wednesday. I think this is one to watch, very wet too.

Yes, this has sneaked up on us.  its hard to predict as its a developing system.  Worrying.  I

MetO rainfall charts show England playing catch-up this week after the drought. Heavy rain for the Channel Tue, more generally for the SW on Wed (FAX 985mb N England), hanging around over N England Thu (BBC forecast this morning suggested rain over a wider area on Thu). NW Scotland and NI get heavy rain on Sat, still very little in NE Scotland. Showers widespread early in the week for anywhere not getting the above rain.

GFS Op 00z; LP currently off NW Scotland 985mb, moving NE-wards and filling but leaving fronts and troughs esp 980mb N England Wed 3rd. LP centre then shifts to Iceland 980mb Fri 5th, with strong SW-lies. HP hangs on in the far SE for the weekend but eventually the SW-lies drag up LP from France 1010mb E Anglia Tue 9th. A narrow ridge of HP lying SW-NE is in place Fri 12th (SW-lies for NW Scotland, NE-lies for SE England) before a general drop in pressure Tue 16th. At this time the next (ex-)hurricane ca 965mb is approaching the Canadian Maritimes and threating to inject humidity and energy into the N Atlantic circulation.

ECM; matches GEM below

GEM; like GFS to Tue 9th but the LP centre then forms W of Ireland 985mb and moves to NE Scotland 990mb Thu 11th. No sign of a ridge of HP developing.

AIFS; London , maxima in high teens but a couple of warmer days at the weekend, rain this week and next week, both heaviest on Wed while the weekend stays dry. Edinburgh, maxima high teens this week and low teens next week with also a couple of warmer days at the weekend; more persistent rain than further south but again a dry window at the weekend.

GEFS; in the S, mean temp near norm to Sat 6th, briefly warmer, then near or slightly below norm to Wed 17th, definite rain this midweek, probable rain next midweek. In the N, mean temp up and down but not far from norm, rain most likely Thu 4th, Mon 8th and Thu 11th with drier interludes

GFS06z has another mini heatwave for the South and East,  next Sun,Mon Tues

Both the 0z and 6z GFS showed high pressure over/close to the UK as we move towards FI - although differently aligned.

After this unsettled period, I'd like some 'mists and mellow fruitfulness'

I'd just like an unsettled period first! Any rain down here is of the hit-n-miss showery variety - and even then only for 3 days.

All models seem to be slowly drying up in the medium to longer term.

FAX charts show centres of LP ca 985mb coming and going around N Scotland for the next few days with fronts and troughs in their circulation crossing Britain (esp tomorrow Wed 3rd for England), retiring to Iceland 982 mb Fri 5th as HP appears in the SE.  Final chart Sat 6th shows the LP transferring to position off W Ireland with strong S-lies and rain threatening the SW.

GFS Op 00z; like FAX above. The final LP off Ireland makes little progress towards Britain until Tue 9th when 990mb Corcaigh (practising my Gaelic😊) then moving N-wards though pressure stays generally low to the W (or NW) of Britain . From Sat 13th an ex-hurricane dominates, becoming involved with the N Atlantic circulation and running swiftly NE-wards (Iceland 970mb Mon 15th) to fill north of Norway. It projects a broad trough across Britain Mon 15th, preceded by SW-ly gales, but the trough soon moves on to be replaced by light W-lies Thu 18th.

ECM; similar to GFS but no hurricane on the final chart (Fri 12th)

GEM; As GFS until Sat 6th. Then Britain's weather from Sun 7th to Fri 12th is mainly slack LP between HPs mid-Atlantic and Scandinavia with LP from Iceland pushing into the NW from time to time. The ex-hurricane dies out in the W Atlantic and has no effect here.

AIFS; London, maxima at 20C, a little warmer for the weekend, then dropping slowly to mid-teens, rain Weds 3rd and 10th. Edinburgh, maxima mostly top teens to Sun 7th (Thu 4th cooler) then gradually dropping to low teens by Tue 16th. Rain mostly on Wednesdays as for London, but slower to dry up.

GEFS; mean temp near norm with ens support (one much warmer day Sun 7th in SE), rain this week, dry for the weekend, more rain next week, slowly drying up in E but persisting in NW

FAX charts show a tangle of fronts and troughs moving across Britain  for the next couple of days under the control of LP centres 989mb Iceland and 983mb northern N Sea, particularly affecting S England today (Wed). HP pushes up from the south 1024mb by Sat 6th, strong S-lies for W Britain, and then the next LP arrives 982mb off W Ireland Sun 7th with several fronts in its circulation, dampening what promised to be a fine weekend overall.

GFS Op 00z; resembles Fax (though adding an extra LP centre today 990mb N England) and then goes on to develop Sunday's LP as a trough lying N-S of W Britain , persisting there to Tue 9th with E Britain still under HP and S-ly winds between the two. This trough then gets absorbed by deep Atlantic LP 975mb  Rockall Wed 10th with all of Britain in its circulation, moving back N-wards to Iceland 970mb Sun 14th which with HP nosing in from the SW produces SW-ly gales for N Britain. This Icelandic LP fills but for much of the following week Britain is in a col between two areas of HP to NE and SW, while on the far side of the Atlantic the latest ex-hurricane is slowly dying away.

ECM; agrees with GFS to Sun 7th, but the trough off Ireland develops a centre 975mb SW Ireland Mon 8th which moves to NE Scotland by Thu 11th and then on to Iceland, by that time looking like GFS again.

GEM; like GFS but more W-lies rather than SW-lies by Sun 14th

AIFS; London, maxima rising to 20C at the weekend, down to 15C Thu 11th and back up again, rain on Wednesdays; Edinburgh, same temp pattern but 2 or 3C lower in absolute terms, rain today, then Sun 7th followed by decreasing amounts but reviving Tue 16th

GEFS; Mean temps near norm but with one warm day Sun 7th, ens spread increases from Sun 14th; rain now and fairly certain in small quantities around Wed 10th, also appearing in some runs after that, and in those runs which do have rain, often very heavy

after a brief retaste of summer another horrific week in store next week. potentially stormy in the north west

I'll be adding ECMWF AIFS ensemble charts shortly to TWO. Below is today's 00Z plot for London. I believe, the ECM AIFS ensemble is currently edging the ECM IFS ensemble at many levels. That said, the differences aren't great.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrai.aspx 

I wonder if we'll see Storm Amy next week? There are several possible chances IMO.

GFS Op 00z: Current trough moving north and filling to make way for brief ridge of HP, but pressure dropping W of Ireland 985mb Sun 7th with strong S-lies. This LP moves up the W coast, is reinforced by LP from Iceland, and is situated 985mb NE Scotland Fri 12th. This produces a deep secondary crossing N England 980mb Sat/Sun 13th/14th. This moves to Scandinavia leaving a legacy of NW-ly then N-ly winds which persist though weakening to Sat 20th. At this point the next ex-hurricane (?Gabrielle) is off the coast of Maine.

ECM; similar to GFS and has the extra secondary noted under GEM but not so deep

GEM; similar to GFS but produces an extra and earlier secondary crossing C England Thu 11th (see Brian's post above) as well as that for the weekend

AIFS; London, maxima around 20C to Tue 9th then more like 15-17C, rain likely from the 9th for the rest of the week. Edinburgh, similar, maxima a couple of degrees lower and rain heavier

GEFS; Brief flash of warmth Sun 7th otherwise mean temp near norm but considerable spread of ens members after Sun 14th. Rain now and then persistent after the 7th

ECM horror show for the south. potentially damaging storms. hopefully its wrong with the trees in full leaf

All those people complaining about  drought and lack of rain, where are you now!

Looking further on into September, it looks like it could possibly be on the coolish side. The ensembles siggest only slightly below average and they could, of course, change.  But I think that it's worth a comment as, after a long, hot summer, it's the first time in a while that we have had an ensemble spread consistently at or below average temperature wise.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/ 

While SST's nearby are still well above average, much of the North Atlantic is getting back toward average(even below in parts)so perhaps we might be nearing the end of the well above average conditions that we have seen of late?

GFS Op; like Fax, though the first LP is deeper and the second one quite shallow. For the rest of next week the weather moves into a W-ly mode with no special features. HP moves up from the SW and affects Britain from Sun13th becoming centred 1030mb Irish Sea Wed 17th. Pressure remains high over the country through to Sun 21st with reinforcements from the west. There is a hurricane off the USA coast Sat 20th - this may not be the one shown earlier in the week which now looks as if it will head to the Caribbean rather than curving N-wards.

GEM; similar to GFS at first. The storm due next Wed which it was promoting yesterday has been dropped; then differences from GFS appear, the W-ly regime shown in GFS is at first more NW-ly and then has more disturbances in the stream, 995mb NW Scotland Sun 14th and again late Mon 15th with no sign of HP from the SW

GEFS; brief burst of warmth this Sat/Sun then mean temp generally close to norm though ens agreement breaks down after Sun 14th. Small amounts of rain at any time from Sun 7th - a few runs have big spikes in the N and W and as ever the far NW is wettest.

AIFS London; maxima around 20C this weekend, decreasing (more gradually than previously shown) to around 16C in a week's time, small amounts of rain from Sun 7th, more on Sun 14th. Edinburgh maxima 18C at weekend decreasing more sharply to 14C for the week ahead, some rain at times in the coming week, heaviest Wed 10th.

ECM; like GEM though the first disturbance in the W-lies arrives a day earlier The major storm for next midweek seems to have been written out of all the models.

Tomorrow's review may be absent or not posted until the afternoon as I have an orienteering event to organise

ECM AIFS ensemble plots are now available here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmaifsens.aspx 

Updates could be intermittent for a while. Also, the ensemble mean should be added soon.  

How do the ECM IFS and AIFS ensembles differ? I'll be keeping a close eye on them, but here are today's 00Z updates for London. At a glance I'd said the AIFS looks a tad cooler in the short term, with the opposite true later on. 

GFS Op 06z; current LP 985mb off SW Ireland  running N-wards up the west coast to Iceland Mon 8th advecting warm air from the south but this warm flow cut off  as secondary LP crosses England on Tues with heavy rain, and (shown on Meto Rainfall chart) again Thu 11th. and Sat/Sun 13th/14th. There is then a period of W/SW winds with HP never far from the SW and occasional LPs passing close to N Scotland, A still potent ex-hurricane appears on the Atlantic from Sun 21st.   

ECM like GFS; a notable LP near Scotland is  970mb Cape Wrath. Sat13th.

GEM; that LP on Sat 13th is 990mb N Ireland

AIFS; London maxima dropping to about 15C Sun 14th and rising to 23C again Fri 19th before another drop. Rain likely when the temp drops. Edinburgh, similar trend at a lower level (down from current 20C to 12C) but the later rise not as marked (only to 15C) and more rain occurring before 14th.

GEFS; Current warmth dropping sharply to below norm and rising slowly to norm Sun 14th after which ens members spread widely (op a warm outlier, control a cold one, each some 7C from norm). Significant rain on 11th, continuing to be heaviest Sun 14th, not much after that in the S, some but not all runs persist with heavy rain in N.

FAX shows the current LP near the SW running N to Iceland, pushing its existing fronts through quickly, but then disturbances 1003mb SW Ireland Tue 9th 985mb N Ireland Wed 10th arise in its circulation and push new fronts across Britain,  esp England, before a general NW-ly regime sets in.

GFS Op 00z; As FAX above to start with. Winds then back SW-ly as the controlling LP bumbles around between N Scotland and S Iceland. On Mon 15th an Atlantic storm arrives 975mb Western Isles, not much affecting S England. Then a brief rise of pressure 1025mb England before LPs stream in from the west to affect mainly  N  Scotland, 990mb Fri 19th, 1000mb Mon 22nd and one waiting its turn out to the west 980mb Tue 23rd.

ECM; as GFS with variations - the LP is closer to Scotland than Iceland on Thu 11th, and the LP is slower to move away after Mon 15th.

GEM; as GFS with variations - adds a trough crossing Britain Sat 13th but does not develop the storm Mon 15th until that LP has moved away into the N Sea

AIFS; London, after today maxima up and down in the high teens to Sun 21st, some rain Thu 11th to Sun 14th and again Sun 21st. Edinburgh, maxima in high teens for a few days then a steady 15C (one warm day Wed 17th), drier windows around Tue 9th and Sun 21st but rain at most other times. 

GEFS; temps dropping to a little below norm until Sun 14th  (in the N, to Wed 17th) with very good ens agreement; then a wide spread develops with mean close to norm, rain 11th to 15th then mainly dry in the S, rain picks up again in the N after a couple of dry days. 

There's quite a big difference between the GEFS and ECM ENS mean in the medium term, as far as the UK is concerned. More often than not they show something similar at this range. 

This glorious summer is going out very much the way of 1976. The models seem to be showing mainly cool and often wet. Not looking great for my week's holiday in Northumberland in a week's time. Can't complain though, just got back from a cruise along the Danube where the weather was still in the 30's a bit too hot actually in Vienna and Budapest!

Storm Amy looking rather ominous.  Could bomb more than what is currently modelled.  Next Sunday/Monday looking awful for the whole country

FAX charts; this weekend's LP now off to Iceland where a persistent LP complex gives a week with persistent strong W-ly winds and small disturbances embedded in that (but nothing justifying a named storm). In fact, a different disturbance every day; 1004 mb NW Ireland Tue, 992mb off SW Ireland Wed, 981 mb NW Scotland Thu, and the whole controlling complex moves south to Orkney 982mb Fri, which is then deep and close enough to push troughs E-wards well into the N Sea - previously these had tended to weaken as they crossed Britain.

GFS Op 00z; As FAX for this week with unsettled W-lies but less detail. After Fri 12th the LP near N Scotland does a loop back past Iceland and returns to N Scotland 985mb Mon 15th, the last in the sequence of LPs with a brief ridge of HP Thu 19th. The next LP from the Atlantic takes a more S-ly path,  995mb  Irish Sea Sat 20th, brief N-lies, then ridge of HP from NE Scotland to SW Ireland 1030mb Tue 23rd, toppling towards SE England

GEM; like GFS for this week but cooler winds from the NW rather than W; the LP on Mon 15th is further N, 980mb Orkney, and the ridge of HP Thu 19th is a broader area more to the W of Ireland.

ECM; similar to GEM

AIFS; London, maxima declining to 15C Sun 14th, then a little warmer before dropping back a week later, Small amounts of rain at various times. EDinburgh, maxima dropping to 13C Fri 12th, holding there for a while but dropping further after Sat 20th, Dry at first but some rain on most days after Wed 10th

GEFS; a couple of degrees below norm to Wed 17th (briefly warmer 14th) with good ens agreement, then a big spread develops with mean near norm (Control warm outlier, op cooler). Rain Wed 10th to Mon 15th, perhaps some more Fri 20th in the S, but very likely at that date in the N. Amounts of rain rather low on E Coast.

I've just come across this as a Daily Star headline. 'Nuff said.