I think it helping us to get a proper HP taking over early next week on 12z and slowly moving east but still good strong HP from here to Scandinavia which is my favourite set up so will be cold nights to mild to warm sunny days is not a lot to ask and we badly need to dry out as it been so wet lately.   

FAX shows LP 975mb steaming past NW Scotland to Norwegian coast by Sat 20th but trailing all sorts of fronts and troughs behind it finally resolving into LP 999mb off Cornwall moving E-wards up the Channel over the weekend.

GFS Op 00z; takes the weekend's LP across C England instead, then pressure rises over Ireland, transferring to the N Sea Thu 25th with broad ridge covering Britain. Further predictions depend on the uncertain behaviour of the ex-hurricane, which is now shown as a major feature mid-Atlantic Sat 27th but making little progress and filling in situ resulting in a week of warm SE-lies for Britain to Fri 3rd (?showers in the far SW).

ECM; very close to GFS

AIFS; London, maxima 23C Sat 20th, down to 15C Mon 22nd and rising to a little above 15C into October, rain Mon 22nd. Edinburgh , max on 20th is 20C, dip to a little below 15C and rain on Sun 21st.

GEFS; in the S very warm by Sun 21st (+8C from norm) dropping dramatically  by Tue23rd (-6C below norm), recovering slowly by end of month, very small amounts of rain from time to time though SW has heavy falls in a few runs. Further north, graded into Scotland,  the peak  in temp is flattened though the dip is still there and there is likely to be heavy rain now and around Sun 21st, also more chance of rain in 1st week of October. 

Mmm. Not sure about that. GFS model shows it becoming decidedly cool next week with a lot of cloud at times and showers in eastern areas. Perhaps drier with chilly nights in western parts. 

Seems like good agreement for the cooler air to reach the south. This is the ECM 00Z sequence for Sat to Mon.

This was just flagged up to me on X. A MASSIVE temperature change from Saturday to Sunday in the south! 

One grid point just east of London from 26C to 9c at 1500 hrs Sat & Sun respectively

Amazing if that drop in 24 hours (16C difference on that map) came off

Just had a look at my Kew Gardens database from 1881 and the previous biggest drop I could find was 13.5C in one day (12-13/04/2020 from 24.9C to 11.4C max)

Its not all that bad, parts of NE Scotland look like they're warming up a bit Sat - Sun 😂

Didn’t we had a big drop in June few years back? Was it 31C to 9c with cold rain all day. 

Unusual for UKV to go off on one like that, normally that's a GFS speciality!

IMBY the 12z GFS has 21 Sat, 17 Sun, whatever the MetO use these days (an ensemble median?) has 23 to 17, compare that with 23 to 13 on that UKV run.

I'd bet anything it won't be 13C here at 4 PM (BST) on Sunday. 

And as it happens the 15z UKV now has 18... and 18! Normality is resumed. 😁

FAX summary - LP crossing Britain through to the weekend with a waving front giving a lot of rain in N England and S Scotland. If you want the detail(optional) , it shows more LPs crossing Britain than it did yesterday, on a daily basis; today's LP 985mb N Scotland, and tomorrow 998mb in the same place, then  Sat 20th 995mb Cornwall, the last of these gets to Scandinavia and pulls in strong N-lies behind it. With all of this, fronts persist across Britain, the MetO rainfall chart showing one across C England now, intensifying and moving to Scotland later on, returning south on Friday to N England. Then it revives on Saturday from the west and moves north again before being swept away to the south early on Sunday.

GFS Op 00z; this model picks up the messy picture of LPs crossing Britain over the next few days and the cool N-ly following the last of these on Sun 21st. HP then slowly builds from the west and covers the country 1030mb from Thu 25th. It holds this position which with LP on the Atlantic brings warmth up from the south (exception, a touch of NE-ly in the far SE from Tue 30th) and this persists even on the approach of a dying hurricane Fri 3rd. 

ECM; shows the warmth from the south as due rather to the remains of a hurricane heading for Iceland on Fri 26th, and then restricts the HP to Scotland with lower pressure on the Continent and E-lies for all of England, not just the SE, by Sun 28th

GEFS; from 8C above norm in the S, only 2 or 3C above in the N, on Fri 20th to 5C below norm on Sun 22nd, mean temp recovering to norm by end of Sept though in the S op and control stay cooler. Some rain around Sun 22nd in the S, rather a lot for N England and S Scotland, perhaps more generally at start of October.

AIFS; London 23C Fri 19th, 15C Sun 21st and staying there, very little rain. Edinburgh, 17C Fri 19th and after a dip with significant rain Sun 21st, back to 15C and dry.

latest GFS looking absolutely horrendous for Doc and NE England. very strong easterly winds and torrential rain Sat Night/Sunday morning

MetO rainfall shows the static front across Wales and N England, not moving around as much as was expected yesterday, but getting a move on SE-wards and clearing Britain late on Saturday. Then a new band of showers moves south through Scotland reaching the south coast of England late on Sunday, but returning to plague the far SE into next week. 

FAX agrees with this to late Sat, the clearance being associated with LP 1000mb moving rapidly across Britain tomorrow (Sat) with gales for NE England as it goes. Pressure rises over Britain to reach 1032 mb Tue 23rd with little sign of a band of showers moving south, though small troughs do affect the far SE from Mon 22nd onwards, promoted by LP 1009mb E France.

GFS Op 00z; has an undefined trough moving through instead of an LP crossing Britain, but the gist is the same as above. From Tue 23rd, the HP moves to Norway and combined with an ex-hurricane brings in (warm?) S-lies to Sun 28th. Pressure does not remain high as suggested yesterday, but drops first in the SW, then more generally (LP 990mb Ireland Wed 1st) before converting to a westerly pattern. On Sun 5th this becomes SW-ly as the usual N Atlantic LP teams up with a second hurricane heading for N Spain.

ECM; like GFS, though the LP next week is nearer NW Scotland and the ex-hurricane weaker which means that winds are SW-y not S-ly

GEFS; in the S, a drop of some 16C over the next two days to Sun 21st with a little rain to 25th. Temps then recover to norm by Mon 29th and some runs also have rain at this time esp in SW. In N England & S Scotland the drop is less (say, 12C) and there is a LOT of rain now (but not hanging on), as well as more after 29th than further S. In N Scotland, similar to S Scotland but less dramatic.

AIFS; London - temps like GEFS but rain in smaller amounts. Edinburgh - also like GEFS but less of a drop in temp, less rain now but more on Wed 1st.

More looking forward to sunny weather from Monday after this phantom warm spell which i don't feel anything warm due to no sun, not sure where the talk about 25-26c with full sunshine will come off if cloudy?   

And then for here at Kent for most of next week with persistent north east airflow and a weak trough over us often dragging cloud and rain in from the North Sea or the Low Countries. Looking quite bleak overall.

I was going to say "if only it is late January or late February" but the end result would probably still be the same. 😁

It's lovely here at my end of Kent with unbroken sunshine and the current 20 C feeling balmy in light southerly breeze. I was a bit concerned about high humidity causing low cloud and mist to stick around like it did all day yesterday, but thankfully my own forecast of our end getting to see "Summer's final fling" for today appears to be bearing true. A case of making the most of it before it all turns more seasonal before we know about it (as mentioned in my reply to BFTE above). 

In contrast the current GFS op shows about 4 mm of rain or so over the next few days and for the run to which you refer, it was one of the wettest of all ensemble members at that time.

Today’s 00z ECM for comparison shows perhaps 2 mm of rain over the next 7 day period here.

12z show lot of strong clear mostly sunny but cold nights set up HP next week so looking good to dry out the ground after recent rains this month.  

GFS Op 00z - continues the theme above of HP over Scandinavia, but losing its influence over the weekend Sat 27th/Sun 28th as a broad trough moves in from the Atlantic (fed by weak remnants of hurricane Gabrielle) but HP revives Tue 30th (1020mb Britain). The rest of this model forecast is a story of the Scandi high fending off troughs from the Atlantic with mainly S-ly winds. (Troughs 1010mb Wed 1st, 1005 mb and  Sat 4th both  Ireland, 1005mb Brittany Mon 6th)

ECM - differs from GFS Sun 28th as Gabrielle arrives Sun, not Sat, and deepens as it does so, 985mb off Cornwall and looking stormy, but filling rapidly as it moves into N France Tue 30th, with the Scandi HP then extending a ridge across N Britain well out into the Atlantic.

GEFS - the well-forecast dip in temps Tue 23rd (to 7C below norm) recovering to norm Sat 27th and staying there or even a little above in the N. Bits and pieces of rain at any time, most likely in the west after Sat 27th once the current deluge over N England has departed.

AIFS - London, after today maxima drop to 15C throughout, rain Mon 29th slowly drying out. Edinburgh, maxima lower at first but also around 15C otherwise, small amounts of rain from Sun 28th onwards. This model also shows the current heavy rain over N England but quite local - you have to choose your cities e.g. Liverpool, Newcastle, to pick it up.

ECM has Gabrielle hitting the UK though an outlier, but it will be in the area but NHC not commenting on track beyond 5 days. I dont think they really care anyway once it exits their area of scope. 

The US never did trace hurricanes past mid-Atlantic even before Trump proposed to cut the NOAA (= US weather service) budget by 27%, and NOAA is probably not inclined to go up against Trump right now. AFAIK the cut still has to be approved by Congress, a formality unless there is, say, an unpredicted repeat of Katrina - and that lack of prediction, of course, would be NOAA's fault.

A rare complete forecast fail by the models for my area today. Heavh rain had been due from 7am ish until 5pm according to the models last night but it's still completely dry here as of just after 2pm, we've even had a bit of sun.

It's very rare these days that a forecast is completely off the mark, particularly with frontal rain.

To be fair it isn’t really a simple case of frontal rain though, it appears to be a messy frontal zone with disturbances running through it.  We’ve had a little unforecast rain here in the form of showers, with some sunny spells.

I think the transition from something distinctly summery here yesterday to something distinctly autumnal tomorrow looks spot on.

I agree it's definitely a messy picture - it's still unusual to get the placement of the rain wrong with less than 12 hours to go. Not that I'm complaining! a different story had it been snow!!

I commented in a similar way earlier in the current conditons thread. Just a rain trace here. Blowing a near gale now and much cooler than earlier. That part of the forecast is correct. It's the amounts of rain that seems to cause the forecasting problems for some reason.