FAX chart has as the current dominant feature an LP 963mb off SW Ireland, running north to Iceland by Sat 1st with mostly W-ly winds for Britain and a collection of fronts crossing the country. On the 1st, ex-Melissa joins in its circulation (yesterday ex-Melissa was pursuing an independent path across mid-Atlantic). By Mon 3rd the net result is a complex area of LP with three centres (973mb E Iceland, 969mb S Greenland and ex-Melissa 964mb Rockall) with strong SW-lies and multiple fronts for Britain.
GFS also has the idea of a large area of LP covering the N Atlantic by Mon 3rd but opts for a two-centre solution, 985mb Faeroes and 965mb S of Greenland incorporating the remains of Melissa. This set-up persists to Sun 9th but with winds dying down and going back to W-ly (HP not far from SE England so more settled there). On Sun 9th a dartboard low develops in mid-Atlantic and moves to the Hebrides 960mb Mon 10th. This generates a swirl of small local LP centres for Britain before re-grouping 960mb Hebrides Fri 14th and then running NE-wards towards Norway.
ECM collects all the low pressure into one centre 955mb Mon 2nd SE of Greenland but like GFS keeps LP over that part of the Atlantic to Sun 9th. The new LP on Sun 9th is a much less intense affair, a broad area at 980mb.
GEM is closer to GFS but brings the dartboard LP in much earlier (Thu 6th) and although it shrinks in size is still present as a potent feature 965mb Sun 9th S of Iceland. Pressure is also higher near SE England on most days in this model.
GEFS in the S - apart from rain and a cold dip Sat 1st, mean temps are mostly around 3C above norm for the next fortnight, and although rain is possible, the chances of it are scattered between different ens members with no consensus (very little in E Anglia, more likely in the SW). In the N - temp profile similar, though less consistently mild, and rain possible at any time though no great amounts except for NW Scotland and N Ireland.
Inverness snow row figures at zero until Fri 14th, then only at 1 or 2/33
AIFS London, maxima mostly around 15C with an extra mild Bonfire Night, then sliding down to 8C by Thu 13th. Rain for Sat 1st and Sat 8th, small amounts at other times. Edinburgh, maxima rising to 15C Thu 6th (bar a brief dip Sun 2nd), then down to 8C from Sun 9th. Rain quite frequent to Sun 9th, then gradually drying up.
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce
Chichester 12m asl