The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
29 October 2025 16:52:31

Looks to me like the CPF is running partly from GLOSEA, which has a 0-0.5 ensemble mean anomaly over southern parts of the UK for NDJ, but for the core winter period of DJF it rises to 0.5-1 across the whole of the UK.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=EURO&base_time=202510010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202511010000 

Last year's GLOSEA also had 0.5-1:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=EURO&base_time=202410010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202412020000 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The current Meteo France update looks to be the only one of the major seasonal models which doesn't favour above average 2m temps over DJF. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20251029-1650/c8/ps2png-worker-commands-9bd9f7fc7-cvmcp-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-v7u2oj21.png 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 October 2025 08:47:44
FAX chart has as the current dominant feature an LP 963mb off SW Ireland, running north to Iceland by Sat 1st with mostly W-ly winds for Britain and a collection of fronts crossing the country. On the 1st, ex-Melissa joins in its circulation (yesterday ex-Melissa was pursuing an independent path across mid-Atlantic). By Mon 3rd the net result is a complex area of LP with three centres (973mb E Iceland, 969mb S Greenland and ex-Melissa 964mb Rockall) with strong SW-lies and multiple fronts for Britain.

GFS also has the idea of a large area of LP covering the N Atlantic by Mon 3rd but opts for a two-centre solution, 985mb Faeroes and 965mb S of Greenland incorporating the remains of Melissa. This set-up persists to Sun 9th but with winds dying down and going back to W-ly (HP not far from SE England so more settled there). On Sun 9th a dartboard low develops in mid-Atlantic and moves to the Hebrides 960mb Mon 10th. This generates a swirl of small local LP centres for Britain before re-grouping 960mb Hebrides Fri 14th and then running NE-wards towards Norway.

ECM collects all the low pressure into one centre 955mb Mon 2nd SE of Greenland but like GFS keeps LP over that part of the Atlantic to Sun 9th. The  new LP on Sun 9th is a much less intense affair, a broad area at 980mb.

GEM is closer to GFS but brings the dartboard LP in much earlier (Thu 6th) and although it shrinks in size is still present as a potent feature 965mb Sun 9th S of Iceland. Pressure is also higher near SE England on most days in this model.

GEFS in the S - apart from rain and a cold dip Sat 1st, mean temps are mostly around 3C above norm for the next fortnight, and although rain is possible, the chances of it are scattered between different ens members with no consensus (very little in E Anglia, more likely in the SW). In the N - temp profile similar, though less consistently mild, and rain possible at any time though no great amounts except for NW Scotland and N Ireland.

Inverness snow row figures at zero until Fri 14th, then only at 1 or 2/33

AIFS London, maxima mostly around 15C with an extra mild Bonfire Night, then sliding down to 8C by Thu 13th. Rain for Sat 1st and Sat 8th, small amounts at other times. Edinburgh, maxima rising to 15C Thu 6th (bar a brief dip Sun 2nd), then down to 8C from Sun 9th. Rain quite frequent to Sun 9th, then gradually drying up.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

cultman1
30 October 2025 18:51:59
I do begin to wonder if November may turn out to be the mildest on record looking at the medium projections  for the south the winds by and large seem to be blowing from a permanent sw/south direction and temperature fluctuating in the mid teens . No sign of any cooldown in the foreseeable 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
31 October 2025 08:42:20
FAX through to Tue 4th shows a procession of fronts across Britain on W-ly or SW-ly winds. At first the situation is controlled by LP moving N to Iceland 960mb tomorrow, replaced by a new LP containing the remains of Melissa 962mb S of Iceland Mon 3rd.

GFS Op 00z; the LP S of Iceland stays in position until Tue 11th when it moves off NE-wards dragging a trough over N Britain as it goes and turning the wind into the N. A new LP forms S of Greenland and settles over Scandinavia Sun 16th, backing the wind N-ly at first but by the 16th returning to a full-on N-ly.

ECM; a much delayed arrival of ex-Melissa to Thu 5th, sticking S of Greenland with pressure rising over Britain after Sat 8th  esp the SE where 1030mb, mild and settled in contrast to GFS

GFS; in the S cool with rain to Mon 3rd, then briefly mild before mean temp drops back to a little above norm from Wed 5th, ens members in fair agreement. Mostly dry after 3rd but some runs show rain around Mon 10th, however heavier rain in the SW at intervals from 5th. In the N, temp profile similar but small amounts of rain at any time, again rather more in the west.

AIFS; London, maxima mostly around 15C except Sun 2nd and again after Tue 11th. Significant rain Sat 11th, bits and pieces thereafter. Edinburgh, a cold weekend Sat/Sun 1/2nd but maxima then 15C slowly declining to 10C over the next twelve days, rain most noticeable Tue 4th but some possible at any other date


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
31 October 2025 08:49:00
ECM 00Z is interesting this morning.

PS: I'll start a new MO thread later this morning as we're now over 50 pages.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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