https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2025081806/gfs-0-144.png?6 

Yes - Erin looks to be the turning point of Summer to Autumn - GFS has the final remnants of Erin finally making it to Ireland in about 10 days' time, but only with a central pressure of about 990 and not much of a gradient around it. There does look to be a significant amount of moisture around it though - the rain spikes showing 5-10mm over a lot of the country - which will be a welcome change for some areas.

I agree it doesn't like lasting long, although we could see 3 or 4 days of very warm weather in the south and east.

It makes o good headline, but the ill-educated journos can't distinguish between hurricane Erin hitting the UK (highly unlikely, will degrade somewhere west of Ireland) and Erin's remnants travelling on to Britain with significant moisture included (quite likely, though the models can't agree on the exact course followed)

ICON looks warm, so too UKMO and GFS

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/icon-0-180.png?12 

You can still Erin's warm core even this close to the UK on ECM.  However, GFS  now has her even further south and the northern jet firing up to give us an early autumn 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2025081812/ECM0-216.GIF?18-0 

The Beeb even have it as a headline article yet go on to say we’re to expect a little rain and 23-25c tops. A waste of page space. 

I'm not so sure. I think they've done that as a counter to the thicko hacks who can only think in the Erin apocalypse. 

A lot of people read junk stories like that and spread them. So counter measures can go some wasy to reduce such stories.

ECM - agrees with GfS to Tue 26th when Erin revives and takes over the trough pushing down from Greenland. By Fri 29th the complex is a deep LP 975mb off SW Ireland.

GEM - more like ECM but with the LP filling and moving SE to reach Cornwall  995mb Fri29th

AIFS - London, maxima mostly low 20s, some cooler, and dry until Tue 26th then slow decline into top teens with plenty of rain through to Tue 2nd. Edinburgh, maxima rising to 20C Tue 26th and also dry, then follows London being cooler and wetter

GEFS - first a little cooler, then a little warmer to Tue 26th then near norm with rain everywhere, heavy in many runs for the S and SW

Can't remember this amount of North sea clagg at this time of year before. V annoying 

At least the ECM this morning offers one last heat pulse. 🤞🤞🤞

Surprising how some members have written off September warmth already!

Agree, September and even October have had some great settled, warm and fresh spells in recent years (last year was a bit of an exception down here). I only tend to lose faith/interest when the clocks change. 

GFS Output looking reasonable in the reliable timeframe (for the next 6-7 days if you include today) then descends into a pretty poor, messy outlook in the less reliable (albeit fairly predictable that Erin would fire up the jet and cause a mess).

Everything to play for after the ying gives way to yang. 

It’s something that can happen at any time of year. Obviously the strength of the sun and length of daylight are important factors, but so is wind direction, strength and moisture content of the air.

I see the models are offering different evolutions for the track and strength of Erin as it gets to our side of the Atlantic.  ECM offers some much needed rain for the southern half as the pattern flips.  It will be nice not to have to lug watering cans around the garden.

GEM has ex-Erin centred just off the tip of Cornwall at 240 hours, delivering plenty of rainfall just in time for my camping trip to the IoW.

That’s pretty much where the ECM 00z has it, which starts a changeable and, for the south, very wet few days as we hit the final weekend of summer.

Hopefully it'll change, because that's a bummer

It's some horrendous output, though 

Very miserable for the end of summer and start of autumn 

I agreed the cloud aggression from the North sea always cleared up max 11am which used to be the case in Surrey, now living in W Midlands which classed as far west and 100 miles from the east despite liars claiming west is best when it not true here.  The ensembles and forecasts was very wrong lately as should had been estimated 29-30C yesterday as per 15c uppers on the graph and 25C today before a large drop to 20C but i bet it will be much warmer than recent days.   All this talk about Erin is a bit too much but hope this will help to end the easterly regime and for good and not come back anymore any time of the year, can't trust them regardless the N Sea SST's.

Inclined to agree. September, once considered a 'mellow' month, is really just an extension of Summer these days, with 15c+ minima becoming all the more frequent. It is really only after the equinox that you start geting that sense of Autumn in the air. 

The Southern half of the U.k. has been dry for six months so a change to wet is long overdue. ATM most of the rain is forecast for the South so good news

.Following 6 months of drought i hope it remains predominantly un settled . I have had my fill of Sun , Heat and dust this year

 Different if you have had a wet Summer ,then a fine Autumn would be welcome.

Cant beat the sound of rain on canvas 👍

Much better 12s all round, especially the ECM which stalls Erin out west and it turns hot again. 

Only briefly . See M.O Deep Dive. It is the action of Erin on the jet Stream rather than where it ends up.

I don't think the models have a clue what will happen next week tbh.