Good riddance to this failed heatwave and perhaps see more sunshine than currently. Getting tired of UKMO kept showing high temps that never materialised.

I wouldn't say its failed 31s 32s and 33s pretty widespread today and hot sunshine . Heatwave conditions

GFS 12z would have us on 26 days of 30C plus for the year by the 24th August.

I think it must be one of the longest sequences of 30C+ days it has ever shown. Astonishing if it happens. 

I've just moved some posts to the breakout thread which is here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Model-output-breakout-thread 

Please try and keep this thread OT. 😊

One of the things I've noticed repeatedly this year, and indeed last, is how crummy the MetO raw is here at handling humidity. That has knock-on effects wrt air temperatures too, using the simple principle that more humid air takes longer to heat.

We saw it again here today. Today has long been forecast to have an onshore breeze, and local knowledge would suggest something around 26 to 27 with a high dewpoint. The MetO raw and GFS both had temperatures of 30 or 31 right up until the last minute, with humidity a laughably low 29% on the MetO raw and 33% on the GFS. 

The GFS stuck with that 'til the end, but the MetO raw at the last minute wound the temperature down and the humidity up.

The end result was a max of 26 here with dewpoints hovering around 20 for most of the afternoon - that's 70% RH.

I don't get it. Surely it's obvious that a coastal location with an onshore breeze and a warm airmass will end up being humid? It's vanishingly rare for that *not* to be the case, yet the models continue to stumble on it.

Further inland it's a different story and I've seen multiple stations reporting humidity of 30-35% this afternoon.

 Hurricane Erin causing some headaches could help sustain the heatwave 

All depends on track as it could equally fire up the jet as it dissipates and bring on autumn. 

Edit - I see the 12z indeed keeps the heat over England and the jet a little further north post Erin!

ECM; similar to GFS but HP Sat 23rd less prominent and Erin more dominant in mid-Atlantic

GEM; takes ECM a stage further with pressure dropping over Scotland Sat 23rd to 1000mb and offering no obstacle to the progress of Erin

AIFS; London, maxima in top 20s to Sat 16th then low 20s to Thu 21st at which point substantial rain ushers in a period with maxima in high teens. Edinburgh, maxima at highest now, steadily decreasing to low teens by Thu 21st before slowly rising; little rain until Tue 26th.

GEFS; In the S, temps soon dropping to about 5C above norm for a week (in any other year this would be exceptional!) then from Thu 21st close to norm with rain appearing in many ens members (some possibility of heavy in the SE). In the N, a more gradual decline but then a recovery of temps to 6 or 7 C above norm around Mon 18th. However also back to norm from Thu 21st and some light rain likely (also a little rain in the next few days). The zone of transition from N to S appears to be along a Liverpool-Sheffield axis

Thu 21st seems to be the pivot day to keep an eye on

UKMO looks the hottest again, appears Erin and other spin offs helping to keep the heat pump going

00z for here look good and better than this one so likely 30s days and full clearer sunny skies from the weekend then further out back to average levels.

That’s not what I’m seeing? Quite a lot of cloud around at the weekend away from the west and south west. Into next week, more cloud and showers around, but staying warm for most and borderline hot for many in the south

Definite signs this morning of a cool period from later next week across most models and ensembles. Gfs is a massive wet outlier for swathes of the country but the temperature profiles on most models are similar and point to Greenland high, scandi trough and winds out of a northerly quadrant. ECM probably the most bullish with low 850s

GFS Op 00z; HP moving into Scotland 1030mb Sat 16th (and covering most of Britain as well) but then slowly moving towards Iceland. Pressure gradually drops over S Britain, esp the SW, and by Sat 23rd it's 1010mb C England. Both HP and LP put up some resistance to the approach of hurricane Erin from the Atlantic, but Erin fills over time and by the time it moves along the Channel from Thu 28th it's a flabby 1005mb. By Sat 30th ex-Erin has reached Dover and pressure is building over NW Scotland.

ECM; similar pattern to GFS (charts available to 24th) but pressure remains somewhat higher and also slacker over Britain.

GEM; like GFS at first, but only a temporary drop of pressure over the south. By 23rd a ridge of HP is building in from the SW and Erin appears to be heading for somewhere S of Iceland.

AIFS; London maxima to Sat 16th at 25C then a long period with maxima around 20C and light but persistent rain setting in from Mon 25th. Edinburgh, maxima gradually dropping from todays' maximum at 23C to 15C Wed 20th and staying there, rain also from 25th but heavier.

GEFS; in the S, warm (5C above norm) to Thu 21st when dropping quickly to norm, rain in most ens members from that date , sometimes very heavy in E England, to end of month. In the N, also warm to 21st, but then cool before regaining norm around Mon 25th, rain (less in NE) likely from 21st in fewer runs but heavier when it does occur. 

A lot still depending on Hurricane Erin at the end of next week. Its forecast track has trended S-wards over the last few days, from passing N of Scotland to moving up the Channel (though GEM has gone back on this)

Good , had enough of this constant heat and humidity.

 Hope that comes off as well as the ongoing drought is rather wearing.

the unknown is where Erin goes. UKMO looks very warm to midweek. but it does feel like we are in the fag end of summer 

Let's hope so, but seems impossible now to get a sustained spell of below average temperatures.

Well the Met Office at least for the SE showing a continuation of this fine spell well into next week even if the temperatures are down a bit on recent values. Will be interesting to see if the models come up with a conclusive pattern change going forward 

Saving it up for Dec/Jan 😉

🤣🤣🤣

For me, I want summer to be dry, sunny and warm/hot

I'm hoping that Erin helps us keep 'proper summer' weather through into the start of September.

latest GFS looks warm and Erin helping

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-228.png?6 

UKMO still warm to wed, cuts off any northerly. GFS very different. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2025081412/UW144-21.GIF?14-18 

A quick tip: On the TWO GFS charts check if the snow key displays the shaded area indicating snow rates. If it does then snow is shown somewhere inside the plot area even if you can't see it. As an example, the chart below shows no snow.

Erin expected to maintain near hurricane strength even as a post tropical system close to Greenland.  Should help pump up some warmth and cut off any northerly cool feed for the uk

Lovely GFS 0z this morning.  HP builds in strongly after most briefest of northerlies. Also HLB disappearing from the output as it normally does.