GFS Op 00z; HP becoming centred over Scotland for the weekend with a N-ly drift down the E Coast, then as the HP moves towards Iceland the wind goes round first E-ly (Tue 19th) then NE-ly (Thu 21st). Hurricane Erin then influences the N Atlantic - this morning's chart has gone back to showing it heading for Iceland Sun 24th, while a broad ridge of HP from the SW covers all of Britain until Fri 29th. Then LP near Iceland becomes active, starting with W-lies for Britain and by Sun 31st a trough dipping south to the Channel.

ECM; generally agrees with GFS though less of a 'broad ridge', more twin centres, one mid-Atlantic, the other 1025mb off E Scotland

GEM; which did show Erin heading for Iceland yesterday, has stepped back and now show it stalling W of Rockall, with strong W-ly and SW-ly winds for Britain Sun 24th and the broad ridge of HP over France

AIFS; London, maxima dropping back to low 20s and from Wed 20th below that with small amounts of rain from Fri 22nd. Edinburgh, currently at 20s, is down to 15s from Wed 20th; some rain later that week and onwards, while maxima rise to high teens from Wed 27th.

GEFS; temps 2 or 3C above norm to Wed 20th then mean at or slightly below norm to end of month (further N, warmer relative to norm at first then cooler). Some rain in some but not all runs from the 21st, becoming heavy in the SW. 

10 day GFS meteogram has zero rain for the south east. Things getting very close to serious drought down here

same here, only 4mm this month

Yes, despite the localised downpours up here yesterday things are still very dry overall and the outlook is notably dry for most over the next 10 days (based on the GFS 00z output):

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_240_49.png 

The local river levels are remarkably low.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crkzllnjxd3o 

GFS Ops runs is at the higher end for the last few days but I noticed that the ECM Ops run also shows a more modest warm up after a few cooler days next week. If either of these pan out it should be a much more pleasant warmth than what we've had on and off through much of the summer. 

For me it would be a delightful end to an amazing spring and summer period. With most LTFs pointing to a wet autumn, I don't mind if this turns out to be the case as we do need to start replenishing our water reserves soon. 

Hasnt rained properly since May.

We actually had "dry thunder" this week, TS overhead, all rain evaporating high up

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dry_thunderstorm 

We may get cooler nights, but no rain, personally expect a 30c September also

The signal for a cooler spell followed by another warm up seems quite consistent at the moment. The 9176 CET challenge could be a photo finish.

Looks like the forthcoming bank holiday weekend will be on the cooler side if the projected drop in temperatures  lasts all the way through till Monday 25th August 

Would suggest mild as well, which would be a good start to meteorological autumn. 

Nice GFS rolling out. 

GFS Op 00z; HP over Scotland gradually moving N-wards and trying to link up with HP off Spain  but only achieving a NE-flow doen the N Sea, and then from Mon 25th dispersed as recently-ex-hurricane Erin takes up station S of Iceland and links to LP over Scandinavia, winds going round to a cool W-ly. By Wed 27th this has resolved into LP 1000mb drifting across Britain with strong cold N-lies over Ireland. It then looks as if the weather will drop back into standard W-lies.

ECM (12z - I'm going out so not waiting for full down load); similar to GFS but Erin making less progress so on Mon 25th still near Greenland and HP 1025mb over N Sea with some warmth from the S.

AIFS; London, max temps dropping irregularly to top teens Fri 22nd then a steady rise over the next week to low 20s, rain from Fri 29th but not much. Edinburgh, similar pattern but temps about 4C lower.

GEFS; warm spell (mean 3-4C above norm) ends Thu 21st, temp dropping quickly before regaining norm from Sun 24th with probably some rain after that.  

Rain tomorrow, never rain today

ECM is what warm weather fans want. Erin as a heat pump.  But some cooler days and chilly nights to come this week.

All very meh now, unless the sun comes out, which looks unlikely to do much for a few days in the East.

I also looking at the 00z ensembles for here show uppers down to 9C today which mean 23C not sure why they predicting sunny 25C and uppers going to 15C on 18th which mean around 30C on Monday under light SE flow from the continent as shown on 9 days GFS panel so should cut off any unwanted clouds like today which was totally not expected with high SSTs over the north sea.    

Who going be very wrong the graph, the forecast for low to mid 20's ignoring the 15C uppers which should be 29-30C here on Monday and sunshine amount?  

Isobar forecast for early next week:

Current SST anomalies. 

Significant differences by t+168 as you'd expect at this time of the year. Wait and see. 

GFS Op 00z; Current HP over Scotland drifting north towards Iceland before returning Sat 23rd with NE-ly winds for most of the week for England, and perhaps LP from France disturbing the weather in the far SW. From the 23rd the dominant feature is hurricane Erin, reaching a point south of Iceland Tue 26th but by then rapidly filling 985mb. It leaves a legacy of a large rather flabby area of LP centred N Scotland 990 mb Thu 28th with cool W-lies for Britain followed by a standard Atlantic LP off N Scotland 990mb Sun 31st, still fine in the S and pressure rising generally by Tue 2nd. Another hurricane appears on Fri 29th but dies as it makes landfall in the Canadian Maritimes.

ECM; similar to GFS - Erin fills less quickly and is still a well defined post-tropical storm off NW Scotland 975mb Wed 27th with stronger W-lies for Britain.

GEM; treats Erin more like ECM but keeps it further west so winds tend to be warm and lighter SW-lies rather than cool W-lies.

AIFS; London, from low 20s max to to teens and back to low 20s Mon 25th, then top teens with rain to the end of August. Edinburgh, similar but 3  or 4 C lower.

GEFS; matches AIFS but perhaps also some rain in the S around Thu 21st

CMC GEM based wind gust and snow depth charts are now available on TWO.

No login is needed, they can be selected from the chart viewer here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gem.aspx 

Starting to look like Storm Erin will have a more direct impact now late on in the Bank Holiday Weekend in the way of wind and rain . I suspect this will be the catalyst for a more general  breakdown and pattern change in the following days.

Looks good for another very warm spell. The rain spikes seem to be dropping out too.

Things have changed perhaps.  Pub run has Erin acting as a heat pump and helping trigger heatwave 5.  

GFS Op 00z; Current HP moving north from Scotland towards Iceland and then back again by Mon 25th; while LP over France isn't near enough for any rain, it will give a period of NE-ly winds. From the 25th, hurricane Erin (and it is forecast as a hurricane until well across the Atlantic) determines the weather. This morning's output - any relation to yesterday is coincidental - shows it heading towards Ireland and bringing up warm S-lies. By Fri 29th it has made slow progress and largely filled, centred 1000mb England, bringing in a couple of  N Atlantic troughs in its wake, 990mb NW Scotland Sat 30th and 995mb N Ireland Tue 2nd, both affecting the rest of Britain. Then back to W-lies.

ECM agrees with GFS.

GEM is slower by a day or so to bring Erin in, and aims it first at the Scottish borders, rather than the Channel, but by Thu 28th its remnants have moved south to SW England.

AIFS; London, after a slight dip, maximum of 25C reached Tue 26th, dropping thereafter to about 20C with a little rain, Edinburgh similar trend but cooler and rather more rain into Sept.

GEFS; Temps dropping to about 4C below norm Sat 23rd (less of a dip in Scotland) before recovering to a little above Wed 27th, then back to norm, some rain in most runs from Wed 27th (more rain in the N & W). 

Bank Holiday W/E is 23rd-25th- might get lucky and enjoy the last of the fine weather before much needed rain

Briefly warm as ex storm Erin pulls in warm air ahead of a breakdown is what i would take from that as models struggle with the still unknown track.

Dont think the warmth will be around long enough to trigger any heatwaves.

Some media reporting Erin is going to hit the UK.  No model is showing that.