I hate it - it could be an all time awful summer. But, I will say no more.

That is important because on Monday, I will travelling down to Hawick in the Sottish Borders to spend a couple of weeks with my family as I normally do at around this time of the year and I have  feeling that it could be rather hot and sticky when I get there this time.

I'm all for hot and sunny weather in the summer but if it gets really hot and sticky, that isn't going to be very comfortable, especially when it comes to trying to sleep at night.

FANBLOODYTASTIC!!!!

The MetO video I watched yesterday suggested that the highest temps with this heatwave would be further west, so looks like my area could take a direct hit 🤞

6z Op has rolled out. Despite a very different synoptic set up (which I think would once have been less favourable for persistent high temperatures), the run of few 30s- high 20s- back to 30s reminds me of August 1995. The forecast repeats of Azores HP nosing in each time there is an attempted breakdown is very interesting.

And look where that took us in December. 😊

Fine by me. 🙂🙂🙂

The GFS 06z operational really is remarkable for here, with a consistent, consecutive breach of heatwave threshold temperatures from Thursday right out until the end of the run... even up here in Sheffield we never get below 27C on this run and peak into the low 30s on a number of days. Remarkable and widespread heat.

Usual caveats with it being one run and the ensembles not out yet. I imagine it will be amongs the top end of the spread like the 00z op was.

AIFS 06z is less settled but still with a fair few hottish days.

Towards the top but not an outlier.

I'm away on two consecutive mountain biking weekends for the last two weekends of this month, in Wales and N Yorks, so I'm hoping the unsettled runs of yesterday were just a blip. I've had too many Yorkshire washouts over the years!

I just ran the mean peak analysis on 06z GFS - it averages 17.7C. Similar to what we were looking at on runs last week but with fewer below 15 or above 20.

The other difference is that the peaks last longer. Many runs with 4 or 5 days of 16C+ 

https://x.com/peacockreports/status/1942570341479366892?s=46&t=0CzXil3QOYbo8W1abHQyVQ 

James always posts excellent info and this graphic is a case in point. July already tracking at 1.8C above average before the heatwave. With recent ECMWF and GFS Plotted July could be one of the hottest on record.

So much for the cooler July 😉

It’s possibly those that “won’t have to correct”, have to correct…

A piece here from the BBC also references further high pressure influence possible through the rest of this cool and unsettled month 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cx2jdg56gedo 

Where is Tove Jansson's Finn Family?

Enjoying summer possibly? 😉

 Not much change on the overall theme on the 12z output so far. 

Hey, down here we *did* manage to have a day which was 1.5C below average - yesterday - so maybe that's it! 

Not much sign of anything below average in the foreseeable future, anyway, the summer of dreams for heat-lovers continues unabated. At least this time around the bulk of the heat will be in the west, at least initially... it won't feel fresh, but there should at least be a breeze from the North Sea across much of the SE.

GFS 12z also looking more changeable again and definitely cooler, albeit nowhere near as bad as GEM.

ICON 12z the same, as is UKMO 12z with very wet weather across the Midlands and central southern regions.

Warmer for a while, then a swift breakdown to what I've been saying all along.

All the 12z models so far pretty much with a similar theme of a short hot spell then a change.

Happy still to be proved wrong, but I think this time next week will be looking considerably different to what many of you are anticipating.

The heat seems to have been downgraded to high 20c for SE. for Thu-Sun. No more 30c+ according to 5 day tracker on my computer.

GFS 12Z looks like a kind of stalemate between serious heat to the south and an Atlantic low trying to get in but failing.

The result is anything but cool - it's high 20s or low 30s for the duration, starting tomorrow.

The GEM 12Z run is fun in its own right, it seems to be having a go at running a subtropical storm across the south. Seems unlikely to me...

Indeed. Was never looking nailed on and this is seemingly the beginning of the inevitable downgrade. Some of the charts are frankly pretty vile for next week, particularly the GEM. ICON isn't much better, UKMO shows a really heavy band of rain as early as Tuesday. 

GFS shows that trough out west having much more of an influence.

This is pretty clearly a trend now, but I'll probably be shot down for saying so.

The GFS 12z is likely to result in claggy, overcast, humid and rather disappointing weather. Admittedly not cool, but not inspiring either.

There does appear to be an emerging and growing trend now towards a pattern change.

UKM 12Z Global looks very hot.

UKMO also has a potent low crossing the country on Tuesday, somewhat further north than the GEM's effort. Could be some lively weather around.

As others have said, the hottest conditions look likely to be further west, in contrast to the last spell. 

That seems especially true as the week goes on: at 6pm on Saturday UKV has 34C in the Welsh borders but just 23C in London.