Ours (which is fully available on premium already) shows 33C on Saturday and 34C on Sunday in London.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcpsvg3nc#?date=2025-07-08 

It'll change of course, but for Heathrow the MetO raw has 30, 31, 31, 29, 30 for Thursday to Monday.

Deary me, even Ally Pally's beloved ECM AI is bad, really poor. Very disappointing set of runs all over so far.

Hopefully the regular ECM 12z can pull something better from the bag.

Here are the UKV charts for Saturday and Sunday. It’s quite likely there are 37°C grid points on Sunday. I wouldn’t call it a "downgrade" in terms of heat.

And also a hot 12z ECM run through to the end too.

GFS 12z for S England has lowest max at 24°C through to end of run. 18C + CET increasingly likely and mirroring the summer 76 CETs very closely for 2 months at least.

2018 2022 2025  hot summer resolution increasing

Little doubt for a hot weekend Brian, but every single model shows a marked change after the weekend, some worse than others. Surely this is the trend towards a pattern change? The best of a bad bunch is GFS, but even that isn't great, albeit stays warm.

GEM, ICON, UKMO and ECM AI all pretty poor, with GEM and the AI model really bad.

For those who ask why I never post charts, it's basically because technically, I am illiterate and have no idea how to post images to this forum, and never have known how to.

It's as simple as that. If someone could tell me how, I would love to back up my comments with images.

I agree, but I suspect your view of disappointing isn't the same as mine...

The only positive thing that can be said about this forecast for MBY from the MetO is at least it's not in the 30s. Aside from that, warm to hot, searing sunshine, no sign of any more rain any time soon...

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys.jpg 

Check out the ECM AI Darren. And the GEM. Copious amounts of rainfall, and yes, GEM particularly is extremely cool, even cold! 15c in mid-July is cold in my book. I couldn't even describe that as "cool". Downright cold and in the rain will feel thoroughly Autumnal.

Flooding could become an issue later next week.

Like the washout forecast for last Thursday? It was quickly dropped and I suspect the same will happen with this time. There isn’t cross model agreement for the scenario you’ve described?

There isn't "quite" cross model support as the GFS is drier. The others are all unsettled to varying degrees. The accumulated rainfall out to day 12 on the ECM AI is around 60mm for much of England. That will lead to some flooding for sure.

It's not even described by the GEM operational, as the high temperature for any day South and east of Birmingham is never lower than 19 on any day

Have another look. I wish I could post images, but have no idea how to.

I don't rate AIFS as it's just fancy pattern matching, it's just as much prone to flip-flopping as the traditional runs. It's a tool in the toolbox, not a holy grail.

GEM is above average down here for another week, and frankly I'm not taking much notice of a forecast for a cooler day (20C) in over a week's time, any more than I would with a snowfest in winter. 

In short - for the next week, which is as far as anyone should be looking with any great certainty, it's warm to hot and dry... down here, anyway.

Here's the GEM accumulated precip chart over the next 168 hours, not exactly autumnal for those of us down here... 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/24/24753/gemfr_21_168bcc8.png 

The ECM and GFS runs (you know the main ones we usually look for when look for a consensus) are both well above average for the foreseeable. I suspect after some hot days there will be a trend to less hot/cooler and maybe even closer to average conditions for a while.

I suggest you watch the latest Deep Dive from the Met Office. Very little chance of a breakdown and only getting "Cooler" for a while.

 The downgrade in temperatures  for more Eastern regions is due to the position of the High giving an onshore Easterly drift so relatively cooler than places further West.

I did. The temps for your location at 15z each day are 22, 26, 29, 31, 30, 30, 28, 26, 18 (but was 21 at 12z), 20, 22. It's a wet run after Tuesday and the AI is even wetter, but 15C it is not

Time, as ever, will tell. But the trend is towards that pattern change of sorts.

ECM shows a similar scenario that has been hinted at by GFS. Low pressure stalls west of the UK with a quick build of pressure again from the Azores. The same rinse and repeat patters we have seen for the last few weeks.

A slight cool down looks the form horse for early next week to low to mid twenties with the potential for another heat build thereafter. 

Even the unsettled runs are different from each other next week so I think we are no closer to knowing. Ukmo for instance could easily allow a renewed ridge in the 48 hour timescale once the low has passed whereas AIFS properly locks the UK into an unsettled pattern. It's the first run for weeks that has shown this, so needs to be taken with salt until we see ensemble or other support. The ECM route also feels quite unlikely, I'd fancy GFS to be closest to the overall pattern but a couple hundred miles east and weather would be very different. East certainly likely best next week

What we can be pretty sure of right now is that between now and early next week lots very warm/hot, dry and sunny over virtually all of the UK, once the lingering fronts over NW Scotland tonight and tomorrow have cleared away. We may well have to wait until the end of this week or next weekend before the models are able to give us a clearer idea of what happens from the start of next week onwards.

I believe weather model forecast accuracy a week out is roughly 60%.

I'm not a gambling man but I'd suggest those aren't great odds.

Given (as often) there's no cross model consensus at the moment for a week from now it seems a bit premature to extrapolate a trend from them.

Perhaps someone could post the 18z chart for the 22nd July from each model and then we can compare them to the reality a week from now. 

Well it's clear to me: model output is awful tonight.  By mid month temperatures here in the S Midlands could fall as low as normal for the time of year, and rainfall totals may be nearly as much as we'd expect in the first week of the month 😮    That's almost as bad as winning the lottery!  😛