GFS 06z at 288hrs and looking like it’s limbering up for a cheeky second heatwave at the end of the run. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

UKV still going for 36/35 at the weekend. It's also showing some convection bubbling up in the heat, before more organised rain tries to nudge in from the west next week.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Brian, the activity is caused by one member (apt), and the subsequent replies from those stating what the charts are actually showing. It’s a real shame that it’s not all about the coming heatwave, but as much about someone’s ramblings, but I suppose it’s entertaining and generates site traffic. 

Still looking like we could get the highest temps in this area, and possibly as high as 34c. The tv forecasts are stating 32c here for the weekend, and at a few days out can often undercook (no pun intended) the actual temps by a degree or two 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Looking at the models in depth with Kent and this weekend to mind while I was putting together my own forecast for my Facebook group (titled The Cloud Master), it is looking like a north east airflow is likely to prevent temperatures from getting any higher than 25 C here at my coastal location of Folkestone, but will still be fine and sunny. That suits me fine. It seems South Wales/western parts of Southern England are going to be the hot spots over the weekend and into Monday before the breakdown arrive (but that breakdown part is being said in low confidence).  

PS: I'm missing my fellow Kent weather forecaster sensei that is Steve "Gusty" Wall as he is still in the process of recovering from his stroke. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Just reached 24C so probably not going to be as hot as predicted. Looking at the ECM ensembles this current heatwave looks like peaking at around 29C not the 34C that was predicted a couple of days ago thankfully. Just shows how the new norm is affecting things to think of relief that it will only be 29C !

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Just reached 24C so probably not going to be as hot as predicted. Looking at the ECM ensembles this current heatwave looks like peaking at around 29C not the 34C that was predicted a couple of days ago thankfully. Just shows how the new norm is affecting things to think of relief that it will only be 29C !

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

ICON 12z first out of the blocks and actually doesn't look bad at all, a lot more settled than previous runs. Hopefully the start of a step back from turning cooler and unsettled. I am very happy to be wrong, so hoping the other models follow suit.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I've got this weird theory this summer that we are getting weather in blocks of 3-6 days, Kieran, typically heat followed by fresher (not necessarily much wetter 'unsettled' spells). Thus, I was happy that next week looked more unsettled as that makes the following week (when I am mountain biking in the north) likely drier. 

Probably all rubbish of course. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

I'd cope with that, given I'm on a cricket tour that week, and most of my cricket games so far this season have fallen on the wet days. (Such is my woeful luck).

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Ot (well, it's just hot, hot, hot atm) I'll be honest, rain seems to follow your cricket team around. Can you change you tour to Devon please?

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Both MetO and GFS had 26 here and it's currently... 25.9. A good forecast.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Every forecast I have seen or read today has temperatures reaching at least 30c across numerous areas In the coming days left of this week, and in excess of that in some. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

This evening's GFS delivers something from next week onwards that's rare as hen's teeth in modern British summer weather. In fact so rare as to be practically extinct: settled, warm (but not hot) weather across the country.  

London temperatures next Tuesday onwards: 27, 22, 27, 25, 26, 27, 28, 25, 25, 28 (to be continued). With only 5mm of accumulated rainfall.

Those are the stuff of summer 1984, or 1996, or 2005. Maybe 2014. Not the "modern British climate" - which is what the 06z delivered.  

EDIT: with a cheeky little laying of the foundations for some proper modern British climate right at the end.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

This evening's GFS delivers something from next week onwards that's rare as hen's teeth in modern British summer weather. In fact so rare as to be practically extinct: settled, warm (but not hot) weather across the country.  

London temperatures next Tuesday onwards: 27, 22, 27, 25, 26, 27, 28, 25, 25, 28 (to be continued). With only 5mm of accumulated rainfall.

Those are the stuff of summer 1984, or 1996, or 2005. Maybe 2014. Not the "modern British climate" - which is what the 06z delivered.  

EDIT: with a cheeky little laying of the foundations for some proper modern British climate right at the end.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

If that came off which it probably won't, then mine and Moomins' 'ridiculously unlikely' sub 18c CET (which we haven't predicted just said is possible) might still actually have a chance of happening!

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

If that came off which it probably won't, then mine and Moomins' 'ridiculously unlikely' sub 18c CET (which we haven't predicted just said is possible) might still actually have a chance of happening!

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740