once the core of the high shifts to scandi, its game over in terms of advecting extreme uppers and allows the jet to push in.  ECM day 10 sends the azores to the rescue again but it looks like an outlier.  

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Very unusual I think to have a 'Scandi' at this time of year, but at least any heat it may bring would potentially be of the drier kind. The horror of stagnant 20c+ dewpoints of Summers 2022 and 2023 is not something I want to see repeated for a long while. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

If we're going to have a Scandi High, I would much rather see that occur in the winter with some really cold air from Siberia being brought in with that which then delivers a lot of really cold weather and snow to these parts.

Sadly, that is something which is very rare now and even if we do get a Scandi in he winter months, the air tends to be not as cold with that nowadays with the east coast often still seeing rain rather than snow with that.

I still wouldn't want to see a Scandi at this time of the year though because what we tend to get with that is winds from off the North Sea and yet more easterly muck, often with cooler temperatures as well (though perhaps not as cool nowadays as what we used to get with that due to the combination of ongoing climate change and higher SSTs).

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

It does baffle me when people treat potential signals deep in FI as gospel, like it is inevitable it will happen. Who exactly needs an apology? Even if we get a less settled, more average second half of July we'll still be comfortably above the average CET. Moomin's cooler July just isn't going to happen. A cooler second-half of July is possible, perhaps even likely if we get a less-favourable blocking high, but then it is not at all a stretch to predict that given how warm/hot the first half is looking nationally.

When I read longer-term analysis from very knowledgeable posters and forecasters (like the longer-range Met outlook, etc), they emphasis the uncertainty, because small changes in the pattern can make a huge difference to our little island in terms of rainfall distribution and where the warmest conditions will be. We're struggling for any real consistent signal into next week, with the usual suspects taking every operational as a given with knee-jerk posts (over on NW forums too) so why on Earth are we writing off the second half of the month if the models can't even resolve next week?

We're going to see a number of different options ahead for next week and beyond. Operationals are going to be all over the place; some hot outliers that need treating with caution, some cooler outliers like last night's GFS 18z, that have caught a few out that should know better. Ensembles are only going to be so much help because of the scatter into FI, and the ECM clusters may well play around with a few scenarios in the longer term as well. It's going to be fascinating and frustrating to try and pin down how we go forward from this forthcoming heatwave (that we need to not lose sight of and enjoy!), but it's safe to say it won't be as bad as some will have you think (note, average is not bad!).

Originally Posted by: Steel City Skies 

The 2 usual suspects do the opposite in the winter. Any chart in 10 days + ahead during winter that suggests snow/ice/beast from the east/blocking would ridicule those charts and say it would never happen. It’s is plain trolling and persistent WUM behaviour. 

However, in the summer, particularly like the current one, they have spent the last 8-10 weeks looking into distant charts to find charts they dismiss in winter, keep the agenda going until one day they will be right. It has become tiresome , yes it creates debate, but it’s now become repetitive. Months are wiped out and seasons dismissed from charts that we all know may materialise but often don’t.

It has got to the point where a thread could be created exclusively as a sticky and named after the 2 of them, maybe it would be a good idea? They can debate the charts and their agendas together? 

Out of interest, is there any way of blocking certain members so I don’t see their posts? Would improve my experience here daily.

Back on topic, from my eyes it is looking like about average temperatures, and that’s including northern areas and parts of Scotland. Plenty of sun and very usable weather for the next 6-7 days, a reliable timeframe. Enjoy it whislt we have it, it won’t be long before dark nights and wind and rain are being debated once again.  

Originally Posted by: TheJudge 

It is now

Originally Posted by: TimS 

You can block people, the option is under the three dots, top right hand side of a post.

I enjoy good weather but it is only early July and it's gone on, month after month above normal, for a boringly long time. This above average temperature weather is likely to last for many more months - indeed the chances of a colder than average month any time soon are remote.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

If the GFS is correct then the Met will have to do a bit of rewriting of their long-ranger, as it looks thoroughly unsettled for all (even if not "cool") by about the 17th, never mind the end of the month. The school holiday curse strikes again!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Latest Met Office view on coming Hot Spell

Things will warm up this week, with heatwave criteria being reached in parts of the UK by the end of the week.

Temperatures could climb into the low 30s, although the heatwave isn’t expected to see temperatures quite as high as the one experienced at the end of June/early Jul

When will the heat end?

There are signs that less hot, or fresher, conditions may arrive from the west into the start of next week, but exactly how quickly this transfers eastwards is uncertain. It’s certainly possible that hot conditions may persist for a while longer, especially towards the south and east.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Another front loaded summer. seems a trend.  Cant remember the last blazing hot august we had

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

August 2022 was the fourth warmest by CET.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

If we're going to have a Scandi High, I would much rather see that occur in the winter with some really cold air from Siberia being brought in with that which then delivers a lot of really cold weather and snow to these parts.

Sadly, that is something which is very rare now and even if we do get a Scandi in he winter months, the air tends to be not as cold with that nowadays with the east coast often still seeing rain rather than snow with that.

I still wouldn't want to see a Scandi at this time of the year though because what we tend to get with that is winds from off the North Sea and yet more easterly muck, often with cooler temperatures as well (though perhaps not as cool nowadays as what we used to get with that due to the combination of ongoing climate change and higher SSTs).

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Another front loaded summer. seems a trend.  Cant remember the last blazing hot august we had

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I've just seen the BBC Weather For The Week Ahead and after the current heatwave they are suggesting a brief blip before the Azores high builds back strongly again.

What model do they use? I forget.

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 

I guess the 12z GFS op run shows what could happen: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_366_48.png 

Still no sign of cooler than average temperatures for the majority for most of the time.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

The first four Ops out for seven days time have:

ICON - Low stalled out West, pretty much nationwide heat continuing

GFS - Low stalled out West but closer, W/E split, hot in East

UK Met - Barrels the low pressure through Ireland, unsettled few days to follow you would think

GEM - Keeps the low away for Monday giving another hot day then slides it through France, still warm for most but potentially very wet for the South

I think the models don't have a clue yet beyond Sunday

Originally Posted by: Chidog