A rare non winter post for me but I kind of assumed that summer this year was going to be hot, purely on the basis of the warm and dry spring, nothing so far has suggested that's likely to change and given how hot Europe continues to be, even relatively 'benign' looking charts serve to drag in 30c heat for a few days in the South. 

We are at least getting cooler blips between bursts of heat but I wouldn't be surprised to see HP set up over the UK and lead to something more extreme. 

Being a bit more model specific, I prefer GEM and UKMO to GFS this evening, the latter is unpleasantly warm IMBY most of the time, albeit noticeably different in deep FI to the 6z. GEM and more especially UKMO bring some unsettled stuff in the mid term, pushing a trough over us and away to the east and less of a run of hot weather over central and southern parts. Will be interesting seeing the ens sets and ECMs take - the models have IMO been fairly good at showing the onset of unsettled/cooler blips but as usual with FI signals have overplayed them a touch and the end result has been briefer blips and a quicker return to heat for some. 

15 years ago such a chart would have been laughed off the forum. Today it would merely be considered highly unlikely.

Not even highly unlikely, just a bit of an outlier in the ENS.

The summer equivalent of people posting “this evening’s op is again showing a metre of snow in the South, probably an outlier and won’t get beyond a foot or so”.

Indeed so Brian. The "school holidays curse" is utter garbage. A classic TWO cliche that has little or no basis in fact. 

It does have basis in fact, but just fact in certain years and not in others. And we remember it if we have children at school. 

It’s very unusual to have all 3 months of summer warmer sunnier and drier than average. There are some examples of the opposite of course: August 2012 gave some minor respite, as did August 1997 and 1998. But some quite memorable examples of the opposite: 1994, 1999, 2006, 2013, 2018.

As someone in the Education profession and with 2 kids who look forward to the holidays it certainly does feel like August is the wetter and duller of the 3 months. There is of course a reason for that - statistically it is.

However, the Met Office are also going for a maximum temperature of 26°C on both Friday and Saturday. If that was to happen, this would then be enough to give us an official heatwave for the first time this year here in Edinburgh regardless of what happened thereafter because for that to happen anywhere here in Scotland, the temperature at any location only needs to exceed 25°C on three or more consecutive days and the latest model output actually has that happening here in Edinburgh between Friday and Sunday (or possibly even later) inclusive.

Yet again ECM is completely different to all the other models, save possibly its mate ICON. High pressure reload. 

Surely they use all models ro draw a conclusion?

I dont understand the benefit of blocking posts.  Different opinions however outlandish are all grist to the mill . Do you want to inhabit an Echo Chamber?😄

Thickness values in the London area don't fall below ~565dam. Not so long ago that would have been unusual and significant.

GEFS 12Z looks warmer than the 06Z towards the end. (At least the mean does, but it could be pulled up by a few blowtorch runs TBH) 

https://www.meteopower.com/ 

(the website of MeteoGroup which supplies BBC forecasts)

In addition to the world's leading weather forecasting model ECMWF and other internationally renowned models, we also use a dynamic-static forecast model (MOS), our own in-house development. Current and historic data as well as climatological conditions are included in the detailed and precise location-based forecasts of all meteorological variables such as temperature, effective cloud cover, global radiation, wind and precipitation. Additionally, our forecasts are monitored and edited by our experienced meteorologists, ensuring a constant, high quality level. We also use the so-called Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) to calculate the forecast quality in advance.

In other words, ECM and tweak it a bit

It is personal choice. Good open debate and opinions are always good and welcome. Trolling and then apologising to the forum for doing it, then returning to the same behaviour is tiresome. 

Something I chose not to read on a daily basis.  personal choice. Likewise, if you like to read it multiple times a day, you wouldn’t need to understand the blocking button 😉

Horses and courses my friend 😊

pub run op and control total opposites.  All depends on the Azores reload as ECM seems keen on. 

As the rain falls outside again, seems we've had much more in the last few days than was forecast. its needed. the grass was brown, now it should revive nicely in the coming days

Not looked at any output yet this morning, as on the road and just pulled in to get a coffee. Noticed my iPhone weather app remains consistent for this week, but has now spewed out a 31c for next Thursday, when it was more like 23c yesterday, so some model somewhere has had an uptick in longevity 

The 00Z GFS op run is ridiculously hot for a prolonged period. From tomorrow the maximum doesn’t drop below 27C for the entire run, and from Thursday there is only a brief two-day blip where it doesn’t hit 30C. 

It's at least as reliable as any of the LRFs

The iPhone app is rather odd. For next Thursday it is showing 25C here but 33C in London just 35 miles away!

If you're equidistant or nearer  the coast it's probably the interpolation being used which is responsible. 

GFS Op - HP moving up from the SW as forecast yesterday, and settling over Scandinavia next weekend, Sat 12th, as an Atlantic trough moves towards W Britain. Compared to yesterday, the trough moves in more slowly and may give a couple of extra 'hairdryer' days before LP is centred 1010mb Irish Sea Tue 15th. Then a week with Britain under a col between LP in Scandinavia (where the pressure drops quite smartly) and the Atlantic before yet another reload of HP from the SW Fri 18th moving to Scandinavia Wed 24th and followed by another Atlantic trough.

ECM - Compared to GFS, the Atlantic trough makes only a fleeting appearance on Mon 14th before being rolled over by resurgent HP from the SW, again centred and covering Britain 1025mb Thu 17th

GEM - close to GFS model but the HP reloads from the SW a day or so earlier i.e. Thu 17th

AIFS - London; close to 30C and dry Thu 10th - Mon 14th, then cooler with a little rain before resuming dry and 25C from Fri 18th. Edinburgh; close to 25C and dry 10th - 14th but then persistently cooler (20C) with occasional rain

GEFS -in the S temps rising to  a peak 6C above norm Mon 14th with good ens agreement; then the mean drops to a degree or two above norm with occasional small amounts of rain - but much less ens agreement than shown yesterday, a foundation of runs close to the mean but many individual runs incl op having a flirtation with higher temps from time to time. In the N, as yesterday more of a plateau of high temps to 14th and a less marked drop; better ens agreement at that stage and rain becoming somewhat heavier and more persistent.

No I’m well inland - further from the coast than London. And since I wrote that, it’s now flipped to 25C for London too. It must have updated to the newer model run for one location but not the other. 

👍A good example of "always look for the simplest solution first".

The extent of the heat later this week is notable. IMO, it's another indicator that we could be heading for one of the all time classic summers (if it's fine and hot weather you like). 

MOGREPS-G is supposed to be treated as 2x36 rather than 4x18, but if the 00Z update is taken in isolation it looks like there has been a shift from yesterday's runs. That "Doodlebug" low to the west of the UK seems like less of a fly in the ointment now, although it's still far from certain.