Or just a lunatic.

Or just finds weather extremes interesting.

FWIW the 06Z GEFS has 13 runs (out of 32) where 850mb temperatures reach 20ºC. That's the highest I've seen yet this year.

Watch it rain solidly now until January 

Exactly,  this is a weather forum . We could be a week away from the hottest heatwave in UK history.  Climate change is happening and there is nothing we can do about it. We will have to adapt very quickly to what's coming otherwise we are going to be fccked imo. Doesn't mean we can't find it interesting, fascinating, exciting, scary...

The 06Z mean peak across all the GEFS members is now 18.72C. In other words, although they all peak at different times the highest each run gets at its peak across the 2 weeks is on average 18.72C. That is a surface temperature of 36C in sunshine at this time of year. Possibly 37C. 

So it's more likely than not that we will see 36 or 37C somewhere in the country over the next 2 weeks according to the GFS. 

Eyeballing the GEM 00Z, AIFS 06Z and ECM 00Z ensembles, the mean peak is lower for the latter 2 with more cooler members, but the GEM mean peak if anything is higher. If I have time I'll calculate it for ECM later.

Did you watch the clip? As I wrote, MF used the term "hot" to describe the 25 to 27 in the SE. As a Met Office employee (all the BBC main forecasters were), it would have been drummed into them to use the terms correctly. As that was a 1990 clip, they would have been using the 51-80 averages, which were even colder than the 61-90 ones we're more familiar with. 

As I've bemoaned many a time on here, people seem to think we're in the Med or something, and that temperatures should be even warmer than they are! It's an interesting comparison with the UIA thread, where people on 50K think they're not on a relatively high wage...

Also, as meteorology is a science rather than an art, terms *should* be used carefully and accurately. They most certainly were by the forecasters on main BBC forecasts, and it's only around 2000 when the rot started to set in - and the newer forecasters started using terms like "feeling bitterly cold" to describe 9C in January! In the 80s that phrase only came out in the likes of February 1986, where widespread ice days plus a strong easterly genuinely felt "bitterly cold". 

Indeed.   I find myself in quite a quandary - on the one hand, as a weather geek (and one who's warned about the effects of AGW for a long time) I'm fascinated, even excited, about the prospects of more record-breaking high temperatures.  On the other, as a warm blooded mammal, I would rather they happened whilst I was away somewhere else with more enjoyable climate, like Antarctica 😃  

Perfectly explained. 

Fascinating things are not always enjoyable 

Could depend on the forecaster as well. In this forecast from the mid-80s, 27c is considered 'warm', while 29c is penned as 'uncomfortably hot'. 

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=391755298360018 

It’s the way things are changing and we are not ready for it in this country.

I have spent several weeks this summer in Indonesia, and daily temperatures were 35 - 37c, with 90% humidity. but it’s comfortable because everything there is designed with these temperatures guaranteed. 

Here everything is designed to keep you warm in the (apparently) cold winter so these recent temperatures are not what we are built for. 37c in Jakarta is a lot more comfortable than 30c in the Uk. A possible 40c is not something I’m particularly looking forward to.

Yes, not the most professional of forecasts there by IMC! 😁

I took a particular interest in this subject as a heat-hater, and someone fascinated with data (and these days I'd be called autistic). For me being accurate with terms is very important, and I religiously watched the BBC weather every evening from the age of 6 - so that was 1986. Some of them may have strayed off a bit, but by and large they used terms like "hot", "warm" etc just as they're defined. (I had a supply of weather and geography books when I started going to bootfairs, aged 7, and I remember the colour maps showing the mean July maximum temperatures across the UK - 51-80 averages, of course. Even back then I complained about how hot it was in summer, why couldn't we have average weather as 20C in July would have been much better than what we were getting!)

In the 80s 27 was when you'd start to see headlines (as it was 80F), and the rarely attained 32 (90F) caused everyone to go bonkers. As others have said, when computer graphics were introduced 25 was chosen as the value for red temperature discs rather than yellow... not an exact cut-off for "hot", as that varies on location and time, but good enough to sigh whenever it appeared. These days in summer that'd be almost every day!

I wouldn't want to live with temperatures like that all the time in this country, but I did enjoy that July 2022 hot spell. It was so unlike anything previously experienced in this country and was interesting because of it.

Obligatory model related post - the 1-month CFS run (which is basically cannon fodder but just for interest) has repeating plumes of hot air right out to August, separated by less hot but still warm spells. A record breaking summer set-up for sure.

Is anyone else experienced gusty winds during  the last few months, especially the hotter days, As temperatures have risen each day wind gusts are up to 35-40mph?

It’s happened frequently, can anyone explain? And with the pending next heatwave would I expect gusty winds again? Is it something you can forecast?  

Slightly OT but if these plumes of extreme temperatures keep on going then it will be harder and harder to deny that they're happening in the first place. Deniers will always find a reason why any such increases are 'natural' and jump on board with derogatory comments when temperatures fluctuate the other way. 

Scant consolation when a lot of the damage has already been done, but you have to take the small victories where you can.

Yes, I think both Darren and I were thinking based on our experience that they were slavishly adhering to a Met Office protocol but it seems they played a little more fast and loose. My general experience in the mid to late 90s when I was paying most attention to BBC forecasts was that 21C, 24-5C and 28C were the most commonly used thresholds.

I do notice the difference between 27 and 28, and indeed between 28 and 29 (but 29, 30 and 31 all feel quite similar to me). 

I've noticed this and it makes the hot weather so much more bearable.  What i have noticed is that fresh winds and high temperatures have been quite frequent this summer.  🙂🙂🙂🙂

A slightly deeper trough in the Atlantic which might blow the heat away faster or alternatively prop up the HP...

Edit: looks like blowing it away faster, so "only" 35 on Saturday and 37 on Sunday this time...

Not consistent at all Rob. Blows it all away very very quickly on this run. More likely correct than the fallible 6z too.

I meant consistent for the pattern for the next week. A hot plume looks very likely now - the question is about longevity and what happens afterwards.

personally hope its right.  but lets see the control and the rest of the suite to see if its a new trend

Ah ok, got ya. Longevity seems non existent on this run. Onto the ECM and then the 18z.

Yeah we've got a consistent signal for significant heat building later next week, and with regards to a breakdown for heat that's not yet arrived there isn't much point analysing that from one operational. We'll need to see the ensembles later to see if it is isolated in wafting the heat a way a little quicker.

I'd say the same point regarding the heat but ensemble, and indeed cross-model, support for it has been solid. As you say Rob, we just don't yet know the longevity of what's to come.

I have noticed over several runs that we do see a drop around the 14th in 850s (exception was 06z) But in all cases the heat then rebuilds again, I suspect we will see the same again. 

What is becoming clear is another heat wave is likely from Tuesday to Sunday at least with temperatures into the line to upper thirties potentially.