GEFS isn't great either. Back to my cool and unsettled July idea after a brief warm spell. Ah well. We've had a good ride.

AIFS is still on board for prolonged heat that's good enough for me. It's the superior model these days.

ECM also very good this morning especially for the SE. 

How can you say cool and unsettled?

AIFS the best of the bunch this morning with its very attractive reload and settle-down from mid month.

At this time of year we should really be focusing on the pattern going into school holidays, as that’s what makes or breaks a summer.

Because he’s a troll. 

broad theme remains similar this morning. When you have high pressure occasionally nudging in like it has been the last, what, the last 5 weeks or so, there are going to be runs that don’t assert it. Doesn’t mean it will or won’t happen, but the broad theme remains similar for another heat reload. The questions are how hot and for how long, and what happens after. 

Which model(s) is/are showing cool conditions as the overall outlook? A link or direct discussion of the models showing this would be helpful, thanks. Note you state “cool” not “cooler”.

All the output I can see shows average to very warm/hot conditions dominating for the reliable output (with the exception being more NWern parts where that has not really been the case very much anyway).

The 00Z GEFS is certainly coolER but even the OP run which is very much at the bottom end of the pack still manages 4 days over 30C and only 4 days in the whole run (including tomorrow and Monday) fail to reach 25C. 

I can’t deny it’s disappointing not to see another record-challenging run but in terms of being decent summer weather it looks rather good. 

How does this suggest a cool and unsettled July? What are you seeing?

A question - the MetO release a ten day forecast on their site to discuss what the models are showing. Does anyone know the frequency of these, such as what day that’s released on? Or are they just occasionally as and when? They’re very good and go into some quite in depth model detail and trend graphs at times 

Probably not for this thread but this time last year we were moaning about the wet and the coolest summer since 2015.

Think it's every Tuesday (on Youtube) - and yes, they are excellent.   Exactly what should really be on prime time TV!

I can put up with clegs but midges are un bearable. They can really spoil your day.

You are a glutton for punishment i think🤣

If you want to go off topic please start a thread in the FA. I've just had to delete several posts from this thread. The quality of discussion here recently has been better than for a long time so please keep it that way. 

yes but the 6o,s early 70,s was a low base line. I am not saying it does not get hotter more frequently now but i would like to see the comparison with other hot summer  ,i.e the early 20 th century

Yes, I've noticed that the higher temps have been accompanied by stronger gusty winds, as I've found it most unpleasant, a bit like being in front of a fan oven with the door open. The winds have also increased the drying effect of the high temps, which has not been good for the plants in the garden. I'd be interested to know why this combination has become more common recently. 

There has definitely been a shift to less hot and more unsettled outlook.  The sweat lovers are in denial about that just as people like me are often in denial when the models pick up the demise of a cold spell.  

I think Moomin gets a hard time here, but he could be correct on this occasion.  

I agree, but if you just look at London for example on the ECM run, it still looks hot with plenty of 'tropical nights' on offer. 

https://www.dmi.dk/lokation/show/GB/2643743/London 

Rather them than me! 

Main thing to watch is the SLP ensembles from GFS, ECM and AIFS. They’re all a little lower than they were long term but still averaging above the magic threshold of 1015hpa.

Nonsense. Moomin is suggesting a cool and unsettled July but not one of the models’ output I have seen shows that. Yes, he could be correct but that would be just getting it lucky with guesswork and would be contrary to what the models show. If you also believe the outlook is cool then please post some evidence to back that up? The operational and ensemble data show the majority of the outlook being warmer than average for most parts of the country for much of the time.

It’s not a case of someone getting a hard time, it’s a case of someone posting repeatedly stating one thing when all the evidence states something else and then refusing to acknowledge that. I think if the outlook did look cool for most there would be an acceptance of that here (albeit with many people maybe wishing it wasn’t true).

While I think the 'cool' part is a bit of a stretch to say the least, Moomin might not be incorrect regarding unsettledness for the likes of Scotland N.I and even myself. This 10 day mean 500hPa anomaly chart from this morning's ECM suggests very much a N/S split. 

Yes it could well be unsettled at times, as you say moreso in the NW and less in the SE half of the country.

Coincides with what I said in my European SSTs thread. I hadn't read that article before I posted mine but it does back up my observations. My gut feeling is also that the Med might be in for a stormy autumn. Could be a busy medicine season! 

The briefest of unsettled blips on the GFS 6z.  No extreme heat again but high 20s to low 30s all the way from Wednesday to the end of its run.

It's all relative, but to me this is pushing to extreme heat for the UK.