No- just been masticating (um- that is chewing) over the Control too. Mid 30s locally for several days in a run.

So far the GFS 06z is an upgrade over 00z

Yep 34c next Friday and 38c Saturday 12th.

Madness from the GFS 6z

Bit muggy for the Men's Wimbledon Final lol. 40c!!!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=228&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Blimey, if that 6z comes off, all bets are off. This is starting to get very 2022 vibes, but on steroids.

I hereby declare, I am a complete and utter muppet, and admit I have been far too negative with regards our prospects this month.

I need to learn some valuable lessons here. Don't adopt a glass half empty attitude.

I apologise to all those who have put up with my misery. 

It all adds to the fun mate don't worry.

The 6z is indeed completely nuts also pretty scary.  

Temps from Friday 11th - 34c, 38c 40c, 40c, 37c

This would really put 2022 in the shade! It would also put critical infrastructure at risk I’d have thought!

Absolutely ludicrous warmth

The 00z "mean peak" 850 in the GEFS was 18.2C equating to 36ish at the surface, which was an increase on the previous day's runs. Let's see what 06z GEFS gives us.

It's a brutal heatwave, probably at the extreme end of what's possible.  But next weekend is looking hot mid 30s at least you would think.

I know most are focusing on the extreme temps (I'm not that bothered - happy with anything over 25c), but the story for me is the consistent signals in the models for the broadly settled and very summery weather to continue for a prolonged period. 

We are hopefully looking at the development of a summer that will sit alongside other legends. And, if the models are right, even Scotland will increasingly get in on the party.

Still can't lose that nagging fear though that, like certain other summers that started off brilliantly then went downhill just as the kids broke up and 'summer proper' started (06, 13, 18 spring to mind, and I know there have been others), this one will go down the same route.

1994 was like that too. Honourable exceptions to the rule being 1976, 1995, 2003 and 2022.

The mean GEFS 850mb temp is up to 16C in the SE corner at T204, giving a mean maximum of 32C on Saturday.

Next weekend is looking like a scorcher unless something dramatic happens.

Indeed. Surely the Ops run won't materialise? Lots of outdoor events taking place during that weekend which could cause severe health issues. Even the mean is looking very hot now 

I can see no evidence* this summer is going to end early. The SE is going to get baked and seared -a sign of things to come. Central Dartmoor is still green though 👍

*There are continuing tiny hints an ex tropical system (not even formed yet, 60% chance on NHC) might trundle across the Atlantic later in the month. But my guess is (if it happens) it'll just enhance the damned, horrible, awful (I'm no fan of it...) heat.

2022 was just awful - distressed trees and vegetation all around me, searing sun - it took two years for invertebrates to recover. A 'chilling' wake up call for me for what is to come.

Anyone who welcomes prolonged heat in the mid 30s is, frankly, either a troll or ignorant of the awful reality of current atmosphere physics.

AIFS 6z has low pressure nibbling at the NW . But it's still hot , mid to high 30s next weekend.  

The GFS 6z operational is not an outlier 😱 

Yes it's one of the hottest, but there's lots of support for next weekend.

Mid 30s at least is looking very much on the cards, possibly approaching or exceeding 40c. 🔥

Once again, whether we welcome it or not makes not a jot of difference to whether it will arrive or not. My personal view is that if we do get hot weather I will make the most of it, as there is no point moaning about it.

I could shut myself indoors wrapped in damp towels being miserable or I could get out on the water in the sunshine. Neither will alter our climate in any way.

Next Saturday looking seriously warm now. 

The last four GFS runs (oldest first) have given maxima of 34C, 37C, 37C, 38C for Saturday.

Last two GEM runs: 32C, 33C.

Last four AIFS: 32C, 32C, 33C, 34C.

ECM is a bit of an outlier with 29C, 26C (it delays the heat till Sunday on the 00Z run).

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/63/17460/252_101UKazx6.GIF 

Edit - in the Bristol area that's +38/-2, so only 8% RH!

Where's Moomin gone?  😛 

I've melted 🫠

Spot on just as i recall it 

Well said Dev. I can't handle this heat at all these days. 🙂🙂🙂