The EC Ens would suggest more passing 'plume' flirts than anything consistantly 'heatwavy'. 

Ah, Brogdale. Chimes with the local PWS.

Kent was strange on Tuesday. The Downs never got the really hot stuff. My vineyard, which is only about 15 miles from Brogdale, got to 31.5 and then stuck there all afternoon. Actually peaked lower than Monday. Whereas in July 2022 I got up to 39.1C.

You’re bleating  the same baseless (in terms of overall picture) rubbish as you were all through June when you were always incorrect. 

As previously mentioned - trolling 

Pub run special for next weekend.  There was a time when sight 20c isotherm caused a meltdown on this place. Now its almost routine

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-216.png?18 

As much as you're trying to correct Moonins trolling, i must ask when has 28C ever been classed as a very hot day?  I doubt even the Scots would have ever classed it as very hot.  

Borderline very warm perhaps.

Very hot = 8C or more above average. So 28 in the first half of June down here would be very hot, 28 in early July or late August in the 61-90 period would have been the same. And for places further north the window for it to be very hot is wider...

From next Saturday. 

GFS at least says no to this statement.

UK maximum temperatures from next Monday.

Mon: 23C

Tues: 26C

Wed: 30C

Thu: 32C

Fri: 34C

Sat: 37C

Sun: 37C

Mon: 37C

Unlike usual, the hot stuff isn't being pushed back either - it arrives by the middle of next week.

AIFS and GEM also crazy hot this morning. 

BBC weather standards in the 1980s and 90s:

21-24 Warm

25-27 Very warm

28-32 Hot

33+ very hot

28C was always the gateway level to “hot”. Even now in a warmer climate there’s something quite magical about 28. It’s when being outdoors in trousers becomes a little uncomfortable and the heat hits you when walking out of air conditioned buildings. It can still feel a tad chilly in 27C in a breeze. 

Well maybe not very hot - but it's 3c above the heatwave threshhold for much of the UK, and the sort of max temps we used to expect back in the days when only a few places hit 30c+ each year.

Anyway, GFS has another heatwave setting in next week with 37c+ for several days.    So all rather moot!

With respect, that's utterly wrong.

Note how MF calls 25 to 27 "hot" in the SE, which it was - using the official MetO definitions. The BBC, at least in the 80s and 90s used their definitions... they were meticulous about it!

Damn you Silurians and your cold blood!  😛   

An increasingly hot outlook later next week. Consecutive very hot GFS operationals as well, and it certainly isn't without support. Even the flatter ECM this morning becomes at least very warm, it just stands out more for not being extreme!

Predictions that we've already seen the peak of the heat this summer and July being cooler and less settled... hmm!

Are you sure? I can remember a lot of forecasts where the description was “very warm, even hot in places” and the hot in places was 28.

Not that it matters hugely in the context of the original post that argued 28 was “very warm, maybe”.

All of them have had a persistent mini-pattern change happening around the 13-14th. Pressure builds to the South East and the polar front retreats, and we head into a more meridional blocked pattern. Where the block exactly ends up determines how hot it gets. 

I assume there is some tropical forcing for this, like an active MJO. In any case perhaps this is what’s causing the Met Office monthly  outlook to talk of more widespread settled weather in late July. 

Put simply the GFS Op run is one of the most extreme runs I have ever seen for the southern half of the UK, and it isn't a wild outlier

Without falling into the "writing off a month" trap, given the current models and long range MO, if we don't get rain tomorrow or Sunday, I think it could be a completely dry July down here. Even this weekend is now showing only 2mm for here so plausible we'll miss it.

...and to be clear, I certainly hope I am wrong.

Nice. When personal LRF goes wrong, blame models. We should all do that.

I’d be very interested to see what he is seeing to come to that conclusion. By all means back up what you’re saying with an evidence based approach. It feels like it’s posted in the case it is cooler and it can be claimed that he called it.

He would certainly get less hositility of claims were back up with clear model evidence. 

ECM remains a lot flatter, been consistent with this. Still hot but in the south but not crazy hot.  I would take that. 

Certainly from central England southwards, rain this summer has become the same as chasing snow in winter. It has rarely materialised.

Someone a few days ago predicted a total wash out for yesterday (Thursday 17th),it actually turned out to be the absolute opposite in fact was a beautiful day here, temps of 24 sunny intervals and a nice breeze, perfecto I’d say.

The July washout and no more hot weather for July is possibly a bit of reverse psychology ? Seem to recall this happens in winter too from certain members. Try and find the opposite of the general theme, eventually they will be right

I posted a few days ago as the weather started to turn more changeable with average to above average temps that I wouldn’t  bet against temperatures rising above 30 within 2 weeks. I’d say it’s almost nailed on now,it’s almost rinse repeat rinse repeat this year.

I will say, it has kept the forum busy so far this summer, normally this thread last the whole summer, I predict it a new thread will start again before July is out. That’s my summer prediction 😉

Yes, I remember the symbol turned red when it got to 25.  So that was considered "hot" in the 80s.  

Yes, the moment the magic 25C appeared you knew it was summer and knew it was going to be very warm