Yes it's the Summer of the NW/SE split so far, hopefully a more UK wide heatwave arrives soon. GEM 12z has one

Nearly always a heatwave and drought  when i go fishing in Scotland. Last 3 years i have been up in Late May early June and the Kyle of Sutherland  area is gripped in a drought with blazing sun and a trickle in the rivers . It always starts to rain as i board the plane at Inverness.🤣

Well lets hope that is as accurate as your forecast of a washout June.😉😁

I expect a cooler and more changeable July...we shall see.

AIFS 12z is a furnace of a run.  

Where do you get to see this Ally?

I hope you are right.👍

I imagine Scotland is similar to us in Ireland and those in western England in that the driest and sunniest time of year is usually in that May to early June period, which is around the time when those highs to the near north or east are more likely to occur. 

Was listening to a US Weather podcast earlier today and it was pointed out tha N. hemisphere 'atmospheric circulation momentum' is slowing down rapidly again, which could lead to more slower moving highs (or lows) becoming established as we head deeper into July. I'm hoping we will get locked into a cooler northerly! 

That is what they say up there . I would not choose that time for fishing but a friend of my Sisters always offers me a rod on a famous and expensive river so i dont look a gift horse in the mouth.😄

It's on Wetterzentrale.de. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=12&time=264&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Not a lot to back that up though, aside from a wanting for much needed rain I guess, which I don't blame you for! Especially given your location. I daresay such a vague prediction will hold some truth for those further north and west, but far less so for central, southern and eastern locations.

Looking at the output we just seem to be in a similar 'rinse and repeat' pattern now with the heat and settled weather creeping back later next week after a short, more changeable spell with temperatures much closer to average (so feeling rather cool for those used to the consistently high temperatures of late).

Even so, those further south and east, not a lot of significant rain is expected at all with fronts further west tending to lose all impetus and fizzle out as they clear east. Given higher pressure is often expected further south, occasionally lapping up further north in the stronger ridging, the next heatwave seems a matter of 'when' rather than 'if' as the warmer uppers never stray too far away. The confidence in using the 'heatwave' term decreases the further north and west you go, naturally.

Here in Sheffield this last spell of hot weather did not quite meet the official designation of a heatwave as our slightly cloudier Sunday meant we did not quite reach 26C, breaking the 3-day consecutive definition required. Scorching Monday though!

Don't look at tonight's models then.

From a rainy Philippines this morning and see your other post with those temps are similar to 2018 daily high temps when I return. Was glad to miss this recent cloudy restrictive hot spell which made me so yawn that the hottest spot was very localised and no use for many who want hot and sunny nationwide set up.  As you said next one hope a better sunnier hot nationwide set up.  

What were you doing over there? Business or pleasure? 

I was in Edinburgh Monday to yesterday. The difference in weather and temperature from Bristol was remarkable. 21c, sunny and humid when I left Bristol at 7am on Monday. 12c, fresh and drizzling when I landed in Edinburgh an hour later. The evenings were genuinely cold, and I only took tee shirts!

Similar yesterday on return. Pouring with rain and cold when I left, sunny and warm when I got back. 

That theme looks like continuing unabated, too. There’s a good explainer video on the MetO website about this at the moment. 

Pleasure as staying with my wife family place there. Very cool here with light rain and sunless with more to come from the forecast. Will arrive back on 10th midday so see the sun and warmer to hot weather from the model reports.

GEFS are still looking very warm and dry with mean 850s of 14-15C in the south in 10 days time and plenty of 20+

The 18Z set was even hotter. P18 on the 18Z had a run of five days above 37C.

Having said that, P21 on the 00Z has four days above 37C, peaking with a 42C on St Swithun's Day and a 40C on the 16th. P11 is similiarly bonkers with 40C+ over most of England on the 16th.

If it happens 'oh 'joy'' 😕.

But the models I have looked at this morning look less warm. It looks to me that the development (or not) of a system off the east coast of Florida atm has a bearing on things.

Next week the heat could be more widespread but also could be a continuation of the NW/SE split. AIFS is great for a more widespread heatwave in particular this morning. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Prior to 2022 we'd never (I think) seen 40c modelled for the UK but since then it's happened lots. Is this due to:

a) A rapid change in climate 

b) An update to the models so they show more 40c scenarios even though they don't verify

c)A mixture of the above 

d)something else?!

Yours enquiringly!

Edit - just to be clear I'm aware we do have a rapidly changing climate - point a) above should really say 'extremely rapid' given the very, very short timescale.

a).

Yes, Enough is Enough but still they want more . Hotter Drier , Hose Pipe Ban , Standpipes in the street , Wildfires ,engulfing populated areas , higher food prices , 🤔

Mainly a for the South but is it changing so much further North , this country is only approx 800 miles top to bottom making the change in the south seem un naturally extreme.

The MetO have been giving hints in recent days of more widespread settled weather after the middle of July, and a few of the model runs I have looked at in recent days have been showing this in FI; this morning's GFS 00z op is an example of this.

We need to see the back of the almost permanent LP over Iceland that has been there ever since late May for a more general improvement in fortunes, in my view.

Interesting point - it's easier to see for the South as we just focus on the highest modelled temp and everyone knows what that likely used to look like for London. I wonder if Edinburgh (for example) has had a rapid increase in modelled max temps