The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
02 July 2025 06:33:25

18Z GFS op run had two 40C+ days on the bounce. 00Z run is less extreme but still has a run of eight 30C days with more looking likely. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
02 July 2025 06:36:56

The GFS is utterly crazy this morning.

In summary:

Wed-Fri: Warm

Sat-Mon: Mixed, temperatures cooler than of late 

Tue-Thur: Increasingly warm to hot.

Fri onwards: Hot to very hot with successive days in the low to mid thirties.

The ensembles are showing the strongest signal yet. What is astonishing is the number of runs that are +20c 850c.

It is becoming clear that the heat from this week is unlikely to be the last of it.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Ally Pally Snowman
02 July 2025 06:58:31

Yes all the models this morning have another heatwave setting up in about 8 days.  More so in the SE again but should be decent for most. Synoptics don't look that spectacular but with so much heat to our south, we don't need spectacular synoptics.  It's looking like low 30s but outside chance of high 30s.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
fairweather
02 July 2025 08:13:26

I wonder how much rain there will be in southern Britain this weekend? The GFS has been spray-painting it around, but as the time approaches, the picture starts to moderate. I haven't checked the totals from the UK Met Global, but at a glance, I wouldn't expect them to be notable. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

If it helps I would say 1mm max for Essex. 😂


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
02 July 2025 08:17:56

The forum is like midwinter now. Except rain is the new snow! Always forecast but never happens! Meanwhile some optimistic chart analysis long term by the heat lovers 😀


S.Essex, 42m ASL
moomin75
02 July 2025 08:20:44

Sorry to do this to you moomin!   

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Still looking wet in places. Just pushed back to the weekend.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Tim A
02 July 2025 08:25:30

There was a GFS chart that showed a max of 8-9c for today here I think posted a few days ago. 

Well its 15c now with light rain, and will get up to 20c when the impending clearance gets in from the SW. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Heavy Weather 2013
02 July 2025 09:08:12

Still looking wet in places. Just pushed back to the weekend.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Most of England with the exception of NE will have between 3-14mm in the next two weeks. 


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

moomin75
02 July 2025 09:39:41

Most of England with the exception of NE will have between 3-14mm in the next two weeks. 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

We do desperately need some rain. By the looks of it, all we are going to get will settle the dust. Precious little on offer.

It is very pleasantly cooler today, one thing is sure, my 14 year old dog is very happy that it's much fresher.

There are growing signs of another hot spell coming up.

Given that the hottest period of the summer is a four week period between mid July and mid August, there does appear to be a chance we may challenge 40c again this year.

Time will tell. In the meantime, I am personally enjoying the cool down and will take whatever rain we get gladly over the next few days.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Ally Pally Snowman
02 July 2025 11:12:13

The GFS 6z has one of the most brutal plumes I've ever seen , we only get side swiped by it a mere 37c in the SE. But France gets it full on 45c . 28c 850s. Crazy times. The next 2 weeks could be record breaking. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=16&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=300&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
02 July 2025 11:17:36
A relatively "cool" GFS run on the 6Z (for the UK anyway) with only one day hitting 36 and a few days only making the high 20s! 🙂
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

scillydave
02 July 2025 12:49:22

The GFS 6z has one of the most brutal plumes I've ever seen , we only get side swiped by it a mere 37c in the SE. But France gets it full on 45c . 28c 850s. Crazy times. The next 2 weeks could be record breaking. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=16&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=300&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I wonder how long it will be before we see 50c modelled for somewhere in Europe?


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2025 13:05:39

I wonder how long it will be before we see 50c modelled for somewhere in Europe?

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

The frequency of modelled 35+ UK temperatures these days is quite something. So common it scarcely merits mentioning. We got to a rounded 35C yesterday and it caused barely a ripple. 

And 40s and 41s last night on the GFS, just like that, 2 days running. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
02 July 2025 13:19:14

I wonder how long it will be before we see 50c modelled for somewhere in Europe?

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

It does seem even now to be a barrier we can't get through even in Spain.  But probably won't be long.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Taylor1740
02 July 2025 14:39:17

I think for those that enjoy the fresher more normal weather then make the most of the next week or so as the countdown to the next heatwave has already begun.


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
02 July 2025 16:12:49

The forum is like midwinter now. Except rain is the new snow! Always forecast but never happens! Meanwhile some optimistic chart analysis long term by the heat lovers 😀

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Oh the rain up here always happens.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

doctormog
02 July 2025 16:30:18

Oh the rain up here always happens.

Originally Posted by: Col 

Yes here too. 6.6 mm so far today after an average month rainfall wise last month. It may be a bit drier in the next week or so but I suspect we will see some heavy showers based on the output. It does look like the temperatures will rise again (compared with the current cool conditions at least).


Rob K
02 July 2025 16:31:18
The next high pressure spell is now within the fairly reliable time frame, so I think it's time to call another settled and warm spell for much of the country starting in about a week. (For those in the south, it's more or less a continuation of the current one - even post-breakdown it's still 24C here at 5.30pm, and it's only really Saturday to Monday that look anything less than rather warm here).

Edit: GEM looks super settled and toasty. GFS seems to be churning out a less settled 12Z but still rather warm.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

moomin75
02 July 2025 16:50:29

A relatively "cool" GFS run on the 6Z (for the UK anyway) with only one day hitting 36 and a few days only making the high 20s! :)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Back to back "relatively" cooler GFS runs now Rob, but still temps briefly get to 30c again. Not the excessive heat of a few runs back, so perhaps a trend is emerging?


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Crepuscular Ray
02 July 2025 16:51:23

I think for those that enjoy the fresher more normal weather then make the most of the next week or so as the countdown to the next heatwave has already begun.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Can we have it further north this time please? We could do with one heatwave at least 😂


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

David M Porter
02 July 2025 17:06:48

Can we have it further north this time please? We could do with one heatwave at least 😂

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

We did have a brief one here almost a fortnight ago!😁


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Ally Pally Snowman
02 July 2025 17:08:45
Not sure I'd call the GFS 12z less settled. It's a beautiful summer run for the SE and EA  again. Temps from next Wednesday - 28c, 30c, 29c, 32c, 33c, 28c, 28c, 31c, 30c
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
02 July 2025 17:15:11

Not sure I'd call the GFS 12z less settled. It's a beautiful summer run for the SE and EA  again. Temps from next Wednesday - 28c, 30c, 29c, 32c, 33c, 28c, 28c, 31c, 30c

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Lower heights and more shower activity further north - still very good for the SE again as you say but previous runs have had a virtually countrywide settled spell.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

moomin75
02 July 2025 17:17:17

Lower heights and more shower activity further north - still very good for the SE again as you say but previous runs have had a virtually countrywide settled spell.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

GEM 12z goes all scorchio 🔥


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

doctormog
02 July 2025 17:18:22

Not sure I'd call the GFS 12z less settled. It's a beautiful summer run for the SE and EA  again. Temps from next Wednesday - 28c, 30c, 29c, 32c, 33c, 28c, 28c, 31c, 30c

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

And as a contrast for the NW equivalent from next Wednesday: 14, 13, 14, 16, 15, 14, 14, 16, 15. At least here in the NE we usually do a bit better with a westerly flow and temperatures are average to warm at times (up to the low 20s).


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