Remove ads from site
18Z GFS op run had two 40C+ days on the bounce. 00Z run is less extreme but still has a run of eight 30C days with more looking likely.
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The GFS is utterly crazy this morning.
In summary:
Wed-Fri: Warm
Sat-Mon: Mixed, temperatures cooler than of late
Tue-Thur: Increasingly warm to hot.
Fri onwards: Hot to very hot with successive days in the low to mid thirties.
The ensembles are showing the strongest signal yet. What is astonishing is the number of runs that are +20c 850c.
It is becoming clear that the heat from this week is unlikely to be the last of it.
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Yes all the models this morning have another heatwave setting up in about 8 days. More so in the SE again but should be decent for most. Synoptics don't look that spectacular but with so much heat to our south, we don't need spectacular synoptics. It's looking like low 30s but outside chance of high 30s.
I wonder how much rain there will be in southern Britain this weekend? The GFS has been spray-painting it around, but as the time approaches, the picture starts to moderate. I haven't checked the totals from the UK Met Global, but at a glance, I wouldn't expect them to be notable.
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
If it helps I would say 1mm max for Essex. 😂
The forum is like midwinter now. Except rain is the new snow! Always forecast but never happens! Meanwhile some optimistic chart analysis long term by the heat lovers 😀
Sorry to do this to you moomin!
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Still looking wet in places. Just pushed back to the weekend.
100m ASL
There was a GFS chart that showed a max of 8-9c for today here I think posted a few days ago.
Well its 15c now with light rain, and will get up to 20c when the impending clearance gets in from the SW.
NW Leeds
187m asl
My PWS
Originally Posted by: moomin75
Most of England with the exception of NE will have between 3-14mm in the next two weeks.
Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013
We do desperately need some rain. By the looks of it, all we are going to get will settle the dust. Precious little on offer.
It is very pleasantly cooler today, one thing is sure, my 14 year old dog is very happy that it's much fresher.
There are growing signs of another hot spell coming up.
Given that the hottest period of the summer is a four week period between mid July and mid August, there does appear to be a chance we may challenge 40c again this year.
Time will tell. In the meantime, I am personally enjoying the cool down and will take whatever rain we get gladly over the next few days.
The GFS 6z has one of the most brutal plumes I've ever seen , we only get side swiped by it a mere 37c in the SE. But France gets it full on 45c . 28c 850s. Crazy times. The next 2 weeks could be record breaking.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=16&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=300&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
I wonder how long it will be before we see 50c modelled for somewhere in Europe?
Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Originally Posted by: scillydave
The frequency of modelled 35+ UK temperatures these days is quite something. So common it scarcely merits mentioning. We got to a rounded 35C yesterday and it caused barely a ripple.
And 40s and 41s last night on the GFS, just like that, 2 days running.
It does seem even now to be a barrier we can't get through even in Spain. But probably won't be long.
I think for those that enjoy the fresher more normal weather then make the most of the next week or so as the countdown to the next heatwave has already begun.
Originally Posted by: fairweather
Oh the rain up here always happens.
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Originally Posted by: Col
Yes here too. 6.6 mm so far today after an average month rainfall wise last month. It may be a bit drier in the next week or so but I suspect we will see some heavy showers based on the output. It does look like the temperatures will rise again (compared with the current cool conditions at least).
Current conditions (personal WS)
Edit: GEM looks super settled and toasty. GFS seems to be churning out a less settled 12Z but still rather warm.
A relatively "cool" GFS run on the 6Z (for the UK anyway) with only one day hitting 36 and a few days only making the high 20s! :)
Originally Posted by: Rob K
Back to back "relatively" cooler GFS runs now Rob, but still temps briefly get to 30c again. Not the excessive heat of a few runs back, so perhaps a trend is emerging?
Originally Posted by: Taylor1740
Can we have it further north this time please? We could do with one heatwave at least 😂
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray
We did have a brief one here almost a fortnight ago!😁
"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine
Not sure I'd call the GFS 12z less settled. It's a beautiful summer run for the SE and EA again. Temps from next Wednesday - 28c, 30c, 29c, 32c, 33c, 28c, 28c, 31c, 30c
Lower heights and more shower activity further north - still very good for the SE again as you say but previous runs have had a virtually countrywide settled spell.
GEM 12z goes all scorchio 🔥
And as a contrast for the NW equivalent from next Wednesday: 14, 13, 14, 16, 15, 14, 14, 16, 15. At least here in the NE we usually do a bit better with a westerly flow and temperatures are average to warm at times (up to the low 20s).