In the last 14 days we've had 12 maxima at or above 26C and 4 over 30 if you include today and less than 2mm of rain. Not like it hasn't been hot and dry most of the time before that. I for one, and I'm not alone, will be glad of a bit of respite for a couple of weeks. Obviously different in the north and west where every day isn't dry and blazing hot!

It's amazing how south east centric many of our heatwaves are though. Those living in the north or Scotland or Wales or even the far South West would probably be saying "heatwave, what heatwave?" "Chance would be a fine thing."

The biblical amounts of rain the GFS was showing for the south a couple of days ago have now evaporated.

I’m always wary of model extremes several days out. The number of times we see them -v- the number of times they happen is suitably minimal. Fun to talk about of course…..

It is what the local perception of a heatwave is though. I have stood in a queue in a post office up in Bonar Bridge in the Highlands during a rare spell of days in the mid 20,s  The talk was all about how terribly hot it was.😄

UKV seems to be pushing the heat away faster on Tuesday on the 15Z update. It still just makes a 35C but the extent of the heat is far smaller and further southeast than it was showing yesterday. 

Given the sparsity of stations in Kent it’s questionable whether Tuesday will actually beat Monday. I’m going to guess both days will record 34. 

No surprise, really, I've a directory filled with old charts showing several inches / feet of snow here from GFS (or GEM), the common theme is that none of them resulted in anything more than a bit of cloud! Some things never change, the MRF charts in the 90s did the same, in their low-res way, then its newer forms the AVN and GFS carry on the tradition.

There was a reason we all called the MRF model "misleading rubbishy forecasts"! 😂

AIFS once again goes hot again day 10. Has it picked up another signal? 

They never change - unless its the weather you don't want then they're always right. Story of my weather life!

I'm content with the 12zs which are much in line with how I feel July will look.

Much less warm, changeable and unsettled across all models this evening.

I think the opposite,  the models are now picking up the next heatwave starting in about 10 days or so. 

AIFS ensembles starting to go hot about the 10th

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS ensembles starting to go hot again similar time to AIFS

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

I find the SLP ensembles the most instructive because they vary less and tell a tale of the general pattern rather than precise orientation. 

The 12z GFS ensemble has mean SLP back up close to 1020hpa towards the end. So did this morning’s ECM ensemble. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50715&model=gfs&var=23&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50715&model=ecm&var=23&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1 

You will be pleased with the ECM op,   will feel like a cold november rain!  Lets hope its an outlier

Good to have you posting again. 

Yep the signs are there.

Not an outlier, and the trend is clear to much much cooler than we've had so far. For how long, who knows?

I’ve become rather an infrequent poster unfortunately, though I lurk a little. consider me as like the cicada, only appearing when the temperature’s up in the high 20s plus. 

Surprised no comments from the stinky sweat lovers about the pub run.  Heatwave back soon!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1 

3rd consecutive ECM run showing a significant pattern change and a marked coll down to a meridonal pattern with a cool and showery regime taking hold.

On the other hand, the AIFS looks good for more very warm or hot periods in the medium term. GEFS 00Z also looks reasonable in that regard.

Another thing I noticed is in the shorter term temperatures are being bumped up. UKV going for 28C this Friday in the south.

Is this current heatwave being overhyped by the media? Yesterday was meant to reach 31c yet the max. was only 27c in East Malling. Can't see much chance of the June record going today or tomorrow then on that basis.

Pretty much what we have had where I live ever since late May, aside from a couple of transient very warm/hot spells in the last fortnight or so.

Like June you said?