GFS Op 0z; for this week Britain in a col between LP to east and west. Pressure rises briefly before the western LP develops south of Iceland 990mb with W-lies for Britain. Pressure remains fairly low around Britain with LPs running up from the south, so fairly warm, first 980mb  from mid-Atlantic some distance west of Ireland Thu 29th then from Spain reaching Brittany 1005mb Sun 1st.

ECM: similar to GFS but LP Mon 26th closer, near Shetland, and also nearer Ireland Thu 29th with some strong SW-lies as HP hangs on in the SE (which must have caught Matty's eye)

GEFS: mean temps not far from norm, dipping a little Fri 23rd and  (in the S)Tue 27th, then while most runs stay at norm with the mean, for the south coast the op goes off on a wild heat wave 10C above norm Sun 1st. (Scotland unaffected) Rain most probable around Sun 25th and Wed 28th , some in the south on 21st, but possible at any time anywhere after 23rd.

GFS and ECM appear to have swapped. It's now the GFS Op showing a more widespread rainfest with torrential downpours in early June across some regions of the UK 

The 0z ECM does actually end nicely (extended)

https://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/web/en/ec/2025/05/20/basis00/euro/prec/25060400_2000.gif 

Let's hope the ECM is right. We could really do with a well deserved settled spell now after this horrible rainy spring so far. 

Must be a microclimate where you are?

"In the context of 2025, it appears that Eire (Ireland) has had a very dry spring. Several sources indicate that the spring has been notably dry across much of the UK and Ireland, with Met Éireann reporting dry spells and even partial droughts in some locations. The Met Office states that spring 2025 could be one of the warmest and driest on record."

Admittedly this was google AI generated but I doubt it's far out.

He was being sarcastic, mate

😂

I was being a bit glib. Day 23 without even a single drop of rain here. Some bubbling cumulus out there at the mo so maybe a shower might break out later to break the fast. 

Given that some parts of W Ireland average 200+ days of rain each year, 23 days without any is indeed notable.

I tend to take about as much notice of the longer range GFS charts, now, as I do in the winter when pretty much every precipitation chart seems to have snow in it or a bullseye low pressure system -  None. 

GFS Op 0z; slack LP over Britain at the moment but pressure rises briefly from the SW before LP trundles down from Iceland introducing W-lies and arriving 985mb Shetland Mon 26th. HP returns to control British weather, 1025mb Channel Fri 30th, then new cell from the SW 1030mb Scotland Mon 2nd which drifts NE-wards with possible disturbance moving up from France Fri 6th. 

ECM: similar to GFS though the HP 30th is placed in the North Sea with SW-lies for western Britain,

GEM also similar but LP 26th a little further south with a more marked trough affecting all of Britain.

FAX: small tangle of fronts running along the south coast today, a standard cold front  moving rapidly across the whole country late Sat/early Sun under the influence of strong W-lies 

GEFS:  mean temp below norm to Thu 29th (brief rise on 25th, more pronounced in north) then progressively warmer though with less consistent support from ens members, op and control suggesting warm by Fri 6th esp in south (cf an earlier post from Brian). Most ens members predicting some rain around Sun 25th, bits and pieces at other times in different runs, more frequent and noticeable in N & W.

GFS 0z - Starts to build high pressure from the south from next Wednesday. High inches northwards to settle over the UK for a few days before drifting around just to our east, bringing warm and dry weather.

Pretty much total opposites outcomes.

Hard to call at this stage GFS has been flipping for early June. Looking like it could be a North - South split with very warm but often wet conditions in the South and much cooler conditions in the North but could still be generally wet everywhere. I just hope we get some decent rainfall in my area over the next two weeks as it has been bone dry here for 3 months.

12z GFS a horror show. As Taylor says, very flippy-floppy output. I half expect the 12z ECM to mirror this morning's great GFS's.

GFS Op 00z: current HP hanging on for a couple of days before Britain's weather dictated by LP starting near Iceland and moving to Shetland Mon 26th 980mb with W-lies for all i.e. unsettled in north, fronts and troughs moving quickly across the south (see FAX). Then a pattern of LPs approaching Britain, pumping up warmth from the south often in association with HP towards the east; Fri 30th LP 990mb Rockall but HP 1025mb Dover; Fri 6th LP 1015mb Channel Islands (looks quite thundery for the S) but HP 1025mb Orkney/Norway. 

ECM; like GFS though the first LP is closest on 25th rather than 26th; and at the end (Fri 30th) Hp near Dover looks like expanding and staying around.

GEM; that end of the month HP does not persist and a thundery-looking LP starts to move up from France on Sun 1st

GEFS; temps swinging from cool to warm to cool and warm again before Wed 28th; then ens members spread out but generally 2 or 3C above norm in S, not as much in N, op run is warmer still in both. Spits and spots of rain in the south, more in the north but no consistent pattern. 

GFS Op 0 z; after today GFS switches to W-lies with troughs and ridges passing across Britain before swinging away NE-wards. LP never far from N Scotland; for  Britain as a whole troughs early and late Sat 24th and late Tue 27th, Sat 31st, Fri 6th, Sun 8th; HP briefly in first few days of June.

ECM; similar but the trough on Sat 31st not significant

GEFS; temps up, down and back to norm by Thu 29th; ens members then spread out but gradually warming trend for most. Rain tomorrow, then around the 27th, then persisting in the NW but in England  mostly dry for a while before becoming on and off from Wed 4th. 

Looking like a more mixed pattern with a few nice days then a wet day or 2 rather than the stuck patterns we often see now. Also signs of the Iberian heat dome starting to form after a rather mild spring so far round there.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2025/uk-waters-gripped-by-prolonged-marine-heatwave 

It's hardly possible to have even an average summer with sea temperatures of this kind.