I was looking at the ECM on WeatherOnline, which goes out to t+360

They also have AIFS to t+360, and it looks fairly similar.

Both have the low getting further east than the recent GFS's - although the 12z GFS has a slightly different evolution in FI, with high pressure rebuilding to the north of the UK

ECM 12z seems to be holding firm on it being more settled still, though perhaps slightly more changeable.

Probably Matt. I don't think we'll be seeing a dartboard low (famous last words)!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=2&archive=0 

Opp probably towards top but very usable weather and warm too even at day 10

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 

Latest ECM this morning delays any unsettled conditions yet again.

Yep, its been consistently showing much better conditions that GFS/GEM.

With ICON and UKMO also nowhere near as bad, this isn't settled yet.

GFS Op 00z; HP near N Scotland moves to Iceland Sun 18th, still affecting British weather but with cooler NE-lies. It then withdraws enough for Atlantic LP to develop, slowly moving towards Britain, arriving 1005mb N Ireland Thu 22nd. This drifts SE-wards, filling, to Belgium by Sun 25th. There is a modest rise of pressure over Britain (and Europe) before the next LP arrives to W  Scotland Sat 31st with trough to English Channel. 

ECM disagrees with GFS after Wed 21st, the the HP over Iceland ridging S-wards and suppressing any Atlantic LP until the ridge topples Sat 24th. Even at that stage any LP is still well to the NW and Britain has W-lies with pressure still fairly high, AIFS as an extension of ECM has shallow lows breaking away from Iceland and crossing Britain every couple of days from Sun 25th.

GEM; the ridge from Iceland refuses to topple over, and instead LP from Scandinavia expands from Sat 24th, eventually settling iover the N Sea.

So, a breakdown of sorts at the end of next week, but whether slow/fast, from west or east? Take your pick!

GEFS; mean temps near norm (above at first in Scotland) with ens agreement steadily becoming worse after Fri 23rd. Mostly dry until then after which modest amounts of rain in most runs. 

GEFS; 

It's getting increasingly '1976' (more N blocking that Azores) with an added 1C to 'help' it along.

There must be something that helps such synoptics. Probably the slowdown of Wlies in the spring that sometimes gets out of hand and dry weather feedback? Then add in the v rapid warming of the Arctic and what is there to shift it.....it's not good, though it's still (just about) in the potential category.

Expect people to blame everything but lack of rain for water restrictions.

The second time that GFS  has shown this sort of evolution in the last 24 hours - although the 18z and 0z did keep the recent theme of developing the Atlantic low and have it tracking to the UK.

ECM first played with the prospect of rebuilding high pressure to the north of the UK, but has backed away since.

To dig one out of the TWO glossary of terms: 'More runs needed'

12z GFS back to a rainfest 

We can but hope. Really, we need rain, and a hell of a lot of it.

In the SW you may not see much of it - the LP centres are around Scotland and in the N Sea

GFS Op; HP over Scotland moving to Iceland but still ridging south to affect Britain until Tue 20th, when the pressure over Iceland drops sharply. However the southern end of the ridge revives briefly 1025mb Wed 21st before LP near Iceland takes over the N Atlantic with W-lies for Britain prominent until Mon 26th. After the 26th the Icelandic LP starts to move towards Britain, 980mb Rockall Tue 27th, stalling there for a bit before getting close to the Hebrides 1005mb  Sun1st.

ECM; like GFS until Tue 20th, then the ridge as a whole drifts E-wards pressure falls all the way across the N Atlantic to Scandinavia. The W-lies arrive but instead of being part of localised LPs near Iceland, by Sun 25th there is a broad and cold area of LP from S Greenland to E Baltic. AIFS however reverts to the GFS synoptics for the start of June

GEM; closer to ECM; there is a deep LP near Iceland on Thu 22nd but this soon fills and flattens out to reach much the same situation as ECM on Sun 25th

GEFS; mean temps near norm throughout, but with ens agreement breaking down at two points,  around Sat 24th and Wed 28th. Dry until Fri 23rd (only to the 21st in far west) and then modest amounts of rain for most areas, least in far NE.

Breakdown coming next week - the BBC said so, so it must be true - but still very messy as to how it actually happens

You can usually guarantee that as soon as the press and TV get hold of the drought story, it's not long before it chucks it down. 

Can't agree with that. We've had lots of droughts here in recent years. There has been some wetter periods like last Spring but this is exceptional to say the least. Summer rain won't help. I was in the Forest of Dean the past two days and it was a dust bowl. I was there at the same time two or three years ago and I was up to my ankles in mud. Even if the Water Companies had better leakage control it is unlikely much could have been done. They and the Government will get the blame these days if there are hosepipe bans but we are ultimately dependent on rainfall for our drinking water in this country. 

Except we don’t, as reservoir levels dictate

Sadly it does look like a thoroughly unwanted spell of unsettled weather is in the offing. Had to happen eventually. Hopefully it’s short and we return to this wonderful weather. 

Can't agree with that. We've had lots of droughts here in recent years. There has been some wetter periods like last Spring but this is exceptional to say the least. Summer rain won't help. I was in the Forest of Dean the past two days and it was a dust bowl. I was there at the same time two or three years ago and I was up to my ankles in mud. Even if the Water Companies had better leakage control it is unlikely much could have been done. They and the Government will get the blame these days if there are hosepipe bans but we are ultimately dependent on rainfall for our drinking water in this country.