12z ensembles for here doesn't look so wet and very small spikes like we had last rain during Easter weekend which now 1 month passed here not a drop of rain. Continue to be very dry here for a another week so that 5 solid weeks (35 days) of no rain here.  60 days was the record for Epsom during 2018 dry spell.  Only issue is the North sea clouds had been extremely aggressive, last all day and nasty compare to past when it always clear at 10-11am which I had tolerance with this past behaviour.   12z GFS show NE feed cut off on Sunday and Monday backing to SE flow so should be very sunny and warmer so should hope the suffering residents of East coasts to see a break from the clouds.  I very rare to see the charts but tonight I need to as want the NE flow to be cut off asap, they had been a massive trouble maker and lot of raging posters in NW about this and the gales winds.

GFS Op 00z; Current HP moving off to Iceland; by Tue 20th Britain is surrounded by LP to W, E and S but not really affected by any of them. A narrow ridge of HP re-establishes later in the week but by Sat 24th pressure has dropped across all northern latitudes with a broad trough between 985mb Greenland and 995mb Norway and Britain is under westerlies. This condenses to a centre 990mb Fair Isle Mon 26th with its circulation covering Britain. By Fri 30th HP is back over Germany 1030mb but soon withdrawing E-wards and allowing disturbances to approach from the south.

ECM; similar to GFS - the LP at Fair Isle Mon 26th is more dispersed and only as deep as 1000mb

GEFS;  mean temp stays near norm throughout with fair ens member agreement to Mon 26th when a much bigger spread develops, op & Control very warm at that time. Small amounts of rain in many runs from Wed 21st; the emphasis is on small and repetitive rather than major drought-busting,

I would still find it very ironic that one of the best Mays on record may produce a horric BH weekend.

Yes this coming week more sunny and dry then come to BH another curse attack.  There some rain over the BH but from the flow is fast moving so should be nice and sunny in between.  Not sure why showers are mentioned this week from the front page and NW front page talking about showers this week? thought it due to arrive at the BH weekend with showers/rain? Not during this coming week days as I see strong HP over 1020 all this week until BH.

GFS Op 0z: HP moving N to Iceland trailing a ridge S-wards behind it. By Thu 22nd the HP has collapsed and ridge topples; Sat 24th, LPs centred near Iceland and E Sweden both 995mb, S Britain hanging on to the last of any HP. Then a spell of W-lies until the Icelandic LP takes over Wed 28th 990mb N Scotland with trough covering the rest of Britain (maybe the bad weather will hold off for the BH). Then a brief pressure rise before the next LP Fri 30th 990mb N Ireland moving NE-wards but pushing a secondary Tue 2nd along the Channel also 995mb.

ECM: Similar to GFS until Wed 28th when the Icelandic LP stays out on the Atlantic and continues to throw W-lies across Britain rather than moving closer. 

GEM however does bring that LP across Britain but flabbier and less localised

GEFS: temps near norm throughout with fair ens agreement at first, only slowly getting worse, just a hint of a warmer spell Sun 25th. Rain on and off in small amounts continuously from Tue 21st at different times and different amounts in different runs; perhaps more likely in Scotland around the 24th but no real pattern to it.

IMBY !  You have had some rain this Spring and not had the cold grey cloud to contend with. In the S.E. we have had virtually no useful rain since the end of February and farmers and other growers are struggling. You are correct about resevoirs and groundwater levels though. The Water Companies have managed this aspect well and with average rainfall from now on there should be no need for hosepipe bans. 

Yuck

Yes looks like a big change is coming now and some much needed rain. GFS did pick up on this about a week ago and looks like it will be proved correct.

We will get more sunshine out of it in between systems warmer and relief for the sufferers in the east from the nasty cold cloud attacks lately.  Active jet stream won’t be dull as this and should be brief and settled down by June as per summer season dictates.  

We had an amazing 140mm of rain last month but I've just been into our grazing field and the ground is like rock and the grass struggling. Much of the Uk has had less than 50mm this spring and not a few places less that 25mm - farmers in all such places must be in awful trouble.

Further, endless sun is like endless rain - we, humans and other life, need a break from it.

Still, (OT) I think we might (no more than that at this stage) see worthwhile rain (which, this year, will be 100mm+ in the next month).

I must have missed that. We’ve barely had a single drop here for weeks and weeks 

Looks right for Dartmoor

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps 

Fair enough, I'd just seen downpours predicted for those part which can't have materialised. All the same you shouldn't begrudge us gardeners a few days of Spring rain after all that sun and heat you've had down there. Warm, sunshine and plenty of rain in between, preferably at night is what is required. 😀

If it's just a few days, noone would begrudge that. But if it turns into a few months and we've now had our summer, I think many people will be extremely disappointed. 

That's why I would much rather have been getting the type of weather which we've had during this spring during the actual summer, rather than where we actually are with all of that good weather already out of the way.

I would even have been happy to take a wet and miserable spring this year such as what we had last year if this meant that we were going to get a decent summer after that because that way, we at least wouldn't already have to be worrying about water shortages, wildfires or any rivers drying out and we would then have been able to enjoy a decent summer without any of those concerns even arising.

I think we can guarantee that summer won't be a repeat of spring in terms of rainfall and sunshine anomalies. I certainly don't begrudge a spell of wetter weather to help the farmers but in the UK there is always a chance that the weather gets stuck in a dull, wet rut once it turns. 

You could have pretty much said that in May '76/spring '76. We are now a good degree warmer on average too. I think the test will be if the forecast wet spell is actually wet. That is by no means certain and  in '76 there were wet spells that simple were not that.

The thing is, last spring was pretty poor here (the first fortnight of April 2024 was absolutely atrocious with hardly a dry day in those two weeks) and the summer was no better.

I am personally not convinced that there is any link between the the type of weather that dominates spring in any given year and the kind of weather that dominated the following summer. In my time, I have seen poor or average springs here followed by very good summers and conversely, I have seen very good springs followed by poor summers as has happened on a few occasions in the past 20-25 years. That said, 2003 had a pretty decent spring overall (late March to late April was great that year) and no-one complained about that summer. I am given to understand that 1984 was another year that had a very good spring and summer, to go back somewhat further.

As others have rightly said in the past, the weather does not have a memory and doesn't follow a script.

It might well be, but I don’t live anywhere near Dartmoor, lol. It’s literally over 100 miles away

Anyway, point taken (FW) about gardeners, although they can water their gardens themselves. It may be more of a bind for farmers, but certainly not overly so, yet, and not by a long chalk

GFS Op; Current HP now well away to the north and a spell of NE-lies setting in. The HP then fades  with its last remnants showing as a ridge over Britain from Thu 22nd but by Sat 24th LP takes over, a deeper centre near Iceland 995mb with trough linking to a secondary centre 1010mb Denmark. LP then persists in the N Atlantic with W-lies for Britain; eventually the LP centre reaches Norway Thu 29th with winds going round to the north. A brief pulse of warm S-lies over the following weekend pumped up by the next LP which reaches Ireland 1000mb Wed 4th.

ECM: similar to GFS for the first week but on Sat 24th the Denmark LP is deeper. That then fills more quickly as the Icelandic one takes over and comes closer to Britain on its way E-wards (990mb Cape Wrath Tue 27th) but fills before reaching Norway.

GEFS: mean temp close to norm or a little below throughout with moderately good ens agreement, small dip on Fri 23rd but a slight uptick in op and control in the first few days of June. Small amounts of rain intermittently in most runs from Wed 21st or a little later in the north.

ECMWF is one of the wettest if not the wettest predictions with accumulated pptn to end of May of 40-50mm in the east, 70-80mm in Ireland and up to 140mm in S Ireland

MetO rainfall radar has a mass of rain crossing S Ireland Wed 21st and grazing SW England on its way to France. On Sat 24th what look like conventional fronts are moving towards Ireland from the west. FAX supports this, the mass of rain arising from a shallow LP runner. 

Breakdown coming, but just how wet uncertain

Including me. I want a decent summer but not a permanent drought and all that goes with that.

Well mine would have made sense if, as I somehow thought, it had been Devonian who made the post I you replied to (feck knows why I thought it had been)

Latest is that this mass of rain might take a detour through counties on the south coast