https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=28552&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

For here the widening scattering start from tomorow  show how poor to predict straight forward and to get week long cold runs like Nicosia getting. which would had been -10 to -12C here by now.  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Right now is to either chase for sub -10C as soon as few days time not over 10 days away or see thei easterly cancelled and return to normal service with some sunshine, more frosty chances and some rain and average temps before heading to spring proper.

I looked at the ECM raw temp forecast for Doncaster, a town whose climate I am well familar with, and they look very mediocre. Daytime temps around 6c and lows between 0 and -2c. This will feel penetratingly cold no doubt but this looks more like a persistent chilly spell that is barely below average rather than anything deeper than that. 

Which is ironic given they went cold when the models were showing a milder solution!

I'll wait and see what the 12z brings, the traffic before the 6z GEFS was a slow wander towards colder being not the favourite option (imo) but at least a strong possibility. Entirely possible the 6z is the start of a wander back, will see soon. 

I'd say the most notable thing about the 6z op was that HP was still in the picture at the end of the run. Unless that signal changes we're going to be looking at some runs picking a colder solution for a while yet, fluctuating with little tweaks to the jet etc.  

Perhaps no trust I remember Feb 10 was ear marked to start the proper deep cold before the dreaded push back and delays strike.   To get upgrade need to be 0hrs to max 12hrs,  

GFS seems to be worse now, that's annoying.

Everything else seems to be better though, and the GFS looks to get there eventually.

Was wondering what you were looking at there.

I'm not convinced it's going to improve much post T207 either - HP ridge to the south getting in the way and stalling the cold push from the NE.

GFS could get there but pushed out in timeframe which is always a concern

I'd agree with the UKMO pick. Being generally pessimistic when you look at all the charts around the T120 onwards point, the main cold pool out east ends up moving SW towards the med. That sticks us on the periphery, which might still be okay but given there's a southward sinking HP cell I'd expect the cold feed to be cut off and we end up chilly but hoping for a second push and the atlantic to play ball.

Nearly good but some work to do if it's more than a glance IMO.

Edit: GFS eventually shows the value of being able to stick in there, with a deep cold pool moving over us, albeit in deep FI. -14/-15 at 850 would be a touch chilly.

GFS ends up similar to 2018 - would settle for that

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/65/28465/gens_31_1_192vye2.png 

To be fair I'm not generally a fan of these mean charts - trying to average out SW'lies and NE'lies gets you nowhere - but when the signal is strong enough to skew the mean so strongly towards an easterly it's always worth paying attention.

EDIT: I didn't think to save the 6z day 8 chart, but here's the 12z (left) and 6z (right) day 9s - see what you think:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/8/8688/gens_31_1_216zzt0.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/95/11646/gens_31_1_228hdu6.png 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Meto always seem to be one step behind these days.

Yep. GFS OP and control way out in the mild edge of the suite. Some absolute belters in their with a few -15s which have skewed the mean into one of the best means for a while. 

Over to you ECM.

I guess that answers the question of whether the 6z was the start of a wander back to a less interesting solution. 

It would be nice if we can start getting some of the 'properly' cold charts to the T72 range, rather than a few days of teasing and mixed ens and a nearly but not quite result ala the current drizzly irritation. 

All in all though the fact we're getting charts like these in a month that was generally forecast to be mild and atlantic dominated is an entertaining nod to the vagaries of the weather:-

Edit: ECM is heading in a positive direction at T168 (wxcharts). 

Has to be the snowiest I've seen in many a year down here - constant snow showers coming in from the east for days on end.

Here's the snow depth chart as of T+324! Bear in mind around 15 cm of snow in total has fallen by this point (down here), leaving a couple of inches still on the ground. Further north it's even snowier...

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/ecm-snow.jpg 

One day one of these crazy runs will actually happen. Very February 1991.

Add in the 1.5C of warming since then and you'd be looking at -3s or -4s across Kent. ECM delivers noon temperatures of -2 - so not far off:

https://wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf®ion=uk&chart=2mtemp,850temp,wind10mmph,snowdepth&run=12&step=312&plottype=10&lat=51.398&lon=0.922&skewtstep=0 

That would be a widespread ice day in eastern areas, very unusual in recent times. Note, though, that the ice days only start appearing in the south right at the end of the run, so even more than ever it's "just for fun"!