Well, in the GFS 12z ensemble suite for London, looking at the 850hPa values the Op was briefly in the top decile for 2 days and then in the bottom decile at the end.

The ECM Op at 850hPa is actually supported by a decent cluster in the ensembles for 7-8 days and even beyond that isn’t without a modicum of support.  At the 2m level the Op tracks the mean for the first 8 days and is only an outlier for Days 14 and 15.

I think that’s the key aspect, and I’ve seen posts about the MetO always being a day or week behind or whatever. Give me a break, they’re the experts and no one else on here or NW has anything like the levels of info and knowledge-based decision making they do

That said, they’re a slave to the models the same as the rest of us, to some extent 

I’m not twisting on my posts of the last two days. The unscientific, but undeniable one, based on historic probability of Nirvana charts a week+ out 

When I’ve mentioned this in the past I had Gestapo style interrogation into why and how MetO have access to more levels of data than us mere mortals. I was baffled then and I’d be baffled now if anyone tried to explain otherwise. 

So it really is stick a pin in it at the moment. Hopefully we don't get a hybrid solution (less likely I think) of 5-6C and lots more clag.

The implication in the text is for milder by 21st/22cnd.  'Eventually' is the key word with respect to the time frame.  Having said that and more significantly, it does not mention very cold or severe conditions, and even taking into account the ensembles you would have thought there would be some mention of that possibility.

But once again the real cold doesn’t arrive for two weeks. The models have been teasing it for at least a fortnight but it never gets any closer. 

It’s a bit of a joke. They forecasted cold for next week and the models immediately dropped that idea. Now they forecast the Atlantic train and the models decide to pick the idea of cold again. Are the Met ahead of the game or behind the game?

18z OP is a cold outlier - look:

The winter has been very strange. Some great synoptics on offer but very little proper cold (for the South I mean) Its been cold enough to require high heating expenses and suffering for those who dont like the cold, but without producing anything we used to see in the old days.  Very much a modern winter - anaemic cold. everything just a degree or two warmer than we would have seen 30 years ago, which means cold rain and sleet rather than the snow and ice we could have had

I agree with the beast - we are in an easterly and yet we are not seeing the "true" bitter cold and snow let alone widespread frosts and ice days. The models have teased us but no true cold has really every arrived. What we have seen is a substantial amount of cold and grey days with cold rain or sleet yesterday there was sleet and wet snow over Moors and along A361 link road from Tiverton to Barnstaple and again today we saw drizzle at +4c in many places which could have been -2c with snow grains. Tonight we saw cold patchy rain at +3c and the same is forecast for tomorrow night - more cold rain and mist/fog at +4c, even worse it's patchy cold rain. YUCK 

ECM might be a bit better but it’s looking like last chance saloon for anything decent. 

The UKMO is very rarely correct when it's by itself at that range. 

As you say it's back to meh this morning.  Roll on Spring. 

GFS Op 00z:  Until about Thu 13th HP over Scandinavia brings in SE-lies with cold but not very cold air. The HP then divides, part going to Greenland and part forming a narrow ridge down the North Sea. This is enough to hold off any really cold air from the east and with a closer approach  of LP from the Atlantic milder S-lies develop, strong at times, until Fri 21st, when small troughs break off from the main LP and bring cooler unsettled weather from the NW. Even though the winds go back S-ly, it's still cool as Britain now has returning polar maritime.

ECM: differs from GFS after Sat 15th when the Atlantic LP moves steadily SE to Biscay 970mb Wed 19th, keeping the faux cold SE-lies going;  a lot of cold air both over Europe and the Atlantic but none very close to Britain.

GEM: more like GFS but showing signs of moving the LP to Biscay by Wed 19th.

GEFS: mean temp stays near norm but there's too much divergence between runs to deduce any trend. Yesterday' ultra-cold has gone. A little rain early and dry until Wed 19th for the south; shown in more runs in the N but no great amounts.

MetO forecasts for all but the far west show continuous cloud cover with occasional light rain here and there for the whole of next week

Powder dry and keep riding.

Doesn't surprise me as they are professional meteorologists after all and will have access to data we don't have. Would expect to see any cold options be eroded fully in the output today given how confident the Meto were on a return to mild weather.

From what I can see, at the moment the models are still trying to work out what the LP in the atlantic will do a week or so from now and what path it will take as it attempts to move eastwards. A lot seems to be hinging on that right now and until this is settled one way or another, we can't be anywhere even approaching sure of what happens from mid-month onwards. There is next to no run-to-run consistency and cross-model support for any one outcome at the moment and I don't see how anyone can confidently call what will likely take place a week or more ahead until such times as we have both of those.

Hmmm, I remember saying something along those lines on one of these threads a few years back and some others seemed to disagree!

This run of groundhog day modelling..has to end soon.