We had nothing from the 1987 spell and only a couple of transient dustings from the 2018 'beast'.

Oddly, we had a couple of very good snowfalls in 2013 with a flow from an easterly quadrant (more a NE or ENE)

So it's nice to be a bit chilled out about what does or doesn't happen.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=0&map=1&type=0&archive=0 

There are so many variables here when it comes to the lake effect. A thin layer of CIN is what you probably want; i.e convective instability suppressed by a thin layer of stability, and the layer of stability is thin enough to be overcome but not so thin that the mere friction with land starts making snow as soon as they start getting inland.

Well, we do have upper level lows and surface level ridges; i.e there is probably some layer that is still anticyclonic but not rendered unstable by the temperature contrast in the boundary layer; so there's your CIN right there. Its the reason why in 2018 the snow showers looked kinda continuous and were strongest inland; CIN from the surface anticyclone.

This is only one factor, but one of the more interesting ones that is rarely discussed.

Tbh I disagree with some of the previous posts about how this current thing would have been a proper cold spell if it had been x years ago. Faux cold was always a thing, I remember this well 20 years ago (and the climate has warmed plenty in that time). Its why I've been pretty bullish about this whole thing because historically faux cold* often leads to real cold and this is a classic scandi faux cold setup.

*By which I'm defining it as underwhelmingly cold air from the east  with HP over scandnavi. There are obviously other underwhelming cold setups that are far less exciting. 

You'd start to get sea ice forming in the north sea with that ECM12Z, probably mostly near denmark but even so.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0 

They must be seeing something we're not.

You'd get a convence zone off that.

Over sea the winds are more geostrophic (follow isobars) while they move inwards over land, so you can see you have a land path that extends to North nofolk slamming into a marine path from the Thames. Result would be a near stationary thin band of heavy snow.

Still some uncertainty,  but confidence appears to be increasing tonight for significantly cold uppers speading Westwards from Scandinavia in about week's time.

If the MO is similar tomorrow, watch out for a subtle change in the Meto long range forecast.

Their bullish Atlantic conquering forecast, certainly looks a bit iffy tonight, at least based on publicly available data.

That -10c isotherm gets in over UK post 240hrs breifly, gets moderated for a time and really ramps up after 312hrs. Even reachers here! 

The ECM AI model  showed a  quick return to milder at 06z this morning.  Since then the models have generally become rather more bullish for cold.  Haven't seen 12Z AI yet but it could be quite revealing.

Today's run for comparison. Deeper cold more widely entrenched over the wide part of NE Europe. Little difference on this side to be honest; perhaps a bit of an extention of the chilly conditions. 

Jam tomorrow ...

I think this forecast must have been based on some of the op runs over the past few days which showed the atlantic eventually regaining control of our weather.

Looking at tonight's output from the big three, I don't think the cold is going to be swept aside as easily as the MetO seem to be saying in their update.

So for IMBY I'll carry on with viewing it as possible for a colder easterly spell but not the most likely outcome, with a generally settled and chilly outcome more likely from this evenings runs (ECM ens o/s so might change my mind). Does mean I'm viewing the atlantic return as least likely, albeit tonight's AIFS has gone full on unsettled mode.

Yep. Climatologists distinguish between "Polar Continental" and "Arctic Continental" airmasses (and the same for maritime airmasses that reach us from the NW or N), with - arguably illogically, but it was named first - the Polar variants being the less cold of the two, the "faux cold" type. A Pc airmass would typically come from central or eastern Europe or southern Scandinavia, a Ac from further east or further north.

The further reaches of today's 12Z ECM OP are certainly very pretty.

Needs modernising, doesn't it? 

The 06Z AIFS goes unsettled and milder.  The 12Z holds a block of sorts for much longer which is a step in the right direction, although it  still does not bring  in deep cold.

He’s just either trolling or not good at reading. The Met Office forecast does show wet weather returning but it’s talking about the following weekend, not next weekend.

Why isn’t this in the Media thread, where it belongs?  That aside, I suggest you read the forecast again because it doesn’t say what you seem to think it says.

The mirage still flickers for mid-late Feb for something special but exists only as eye candy/ unsupported at this stage. 

Met office are now saying wet and windy is probable a week from now. Westerly dominated.