I think a lot of them also went for a front loaded Winter and were rather confident that February would be the mildest month...

Totally. 

It was December that was meant to be the coldest month. So far looking like the mildest 🤣🤣

January was slightly below average for overall temperature, according to the BBC week ahead forecast just after 1pm today. Surprised tbh as it didn't seem especially cold for much of the time here, that is apart from the 10 days or so after New Year.

On topic, we may or may not get a significant cold spell from what the models are suggesting will happen a week or so from now. We need to see HP form to the NE as is being indicated by the models firstly and then see what transpires from there on in. One thing is for sure, and that is the outlook is not exactly boring!

Wrong thread. As usual. 

Just seen it on my phone, risk of widespread snow following week.

Main headline also changed

Caveat - these forecasts can easily change again.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 3 Feb 2025

I was surprised that the 2pm Sunday forecast hadn't changed from the previous day, and wondered if perhaps whoever is responsible for the longer-range forecasts had taken the Sunday off. Incidentally it seems strange that they put these forecasts out at 2pm, when it's too early to get that day's 12:00 model runs outputs.

Apologies for the direct reply to such a long post, but this is nothing new. 

The possible ‘shut down’ of the NAD (North Atlantic Drift) has been touted for over 20 years, as ice caps melt and change the salinity & subsequent flow of ocean currents in our locale. 

Tomorrow's update will be more interesting.

Probably stay largely unchanged. Today’s update was a dramatic step off the fence. Any further and they might not climb back up again, without looking very silly. 

And once again, as always seems to happen, as soon as the Met Office mention the chance of significant cold, the models drop the idea like a hot potato. 

still there

It’s worth remembering the narrative for these forecasts is nowhere near the level of severity or confidence as the 2009 or 2010 cold spells. 

Blames flip to easterly on major storm over Hawaii.

Beef of video at 40mins onwards

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 11 Feb - Thursday 20 Feb

High pressure is expected to be slow moving and centred to the northeast of the UK over Scandinavia during this period. As a result, east or southeasterly winds will dominate, these bringing cold conditions across the UK from mainland Europe. Some light rain and hill snow is likely at first, particularly across the south of the UK. Dry conditions will probably become more prevalent later in this period with some spells of sunshine or clear skies. However, there is a continued risk of some wintry precipitation at times, particularly along southern and southwestern areas. Temperatures are expected to be below normal during the day with some overnight frost. Brisk winds will exacerbate the cold feel, particularly in the south of the UK.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Thu 6 Feb 2025

Friday 21 Feb - Friday 7 Mar

Weather patterns in the UK are most likely to be slowly evolving. It is most likely that high pressure to the east or northeast of the UK will dominate at first in some form or another, but with time this may decline, allowing an erratic transition to rather more unsettled and less cold conditions. During this transition there is the possibility of periods or rain or snow, at least for a time, but confidence in these details is currently very low.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Thu 6 Feb 2025

Incidentally I was listening to the radio in the car earlier and the weather forecast said “a chilly day across the Thames Valley with highs of just 8C”!

Since when was 8 degrees considered “chilly” in early February?

Idiots to be honest as 8 is the average now.

Must mean the beast is coming!

https://x.com/simonoking/status/1890674476045545932?s=46&t=pi-PW2h-zayk3Ew8WL18KA 

Sunday 23 Mar - Tuesday 1 Apr

At first, is likely to be more unsettled than it has been of late. Wetter weather will probably continue in many areas, at least for a time, with some heavy rain possible, and this could be accompanied by strong winds at times. Into the following week, unsettled conditions will probably continue to some extent across many parts of the UK, though things could quieten down around midweek, at least temporarily. Temperatures are likely to be widely above average at the start of this period, and it will feel warm in any sunshine, before probably falling back and then fluctuating around average for the remainder rest of the month. The first of April will likely continue in this vein, though it could throw up the odd surprise.