Anyway on topic, and the risk for tomorrow remains low.

As does Friday’s. I would say there’s a less then 5% chance that anything even remotely like the GFS 00z op happens. It’ll be more like the ECM, ICON and ARPEGE ops of it just fizzling to nothing 

It looks to be fizzling a bit before it gets here or splitting to our north. Areas further north seem to have got a lot of snow from it.

Both have, for here, gone for mostly rain with the odd sleet symbol. Today especially, the BBC site has just rain. Since last night, anything that's fallen has been snow, graupel or ice pellets.

Saying that, the Weatheronline radar map has been showing the showers here falling as rain, when they've been snow.

  I also noticed GFS showing a large swathe of precipitation (snow at leading edge, rain at rear) covering more of the UK on Friday while, again, all other models are showing a well fizzled out feature. 

So much swing in the models prior to Sunday. 

Then immediately before Met Office app/UKV predicted the snow to freezing rain/cold rain on Sunday midday well, but after that things fell apart. 

Sunday evening, some of the latest UKV runs just a few hours before had us in positive uppers, in reality it was snowing heavily 8pm-2am, that can't have been right.  Met Office app had us down for rain even as it was falling.  GFS and other models showed rain around that time , then heavy back edge snow Monday morning.  But Monday morning was more sleet here.    Heavy back edge snow did happen though, just in a different area (further south of here). 

Arpege especially for the bin as just showed snow throughout. 

Temp profiles were much more accurate though 0-1c the whole time. 

I'm not holding out much hope Ian, so hopefully that's a good thing lol

Just keeping my fingers crossed for a last minute nudge North.

This is an interesting discussion, and I believe what it boils down to is what model(s) the apps/agencies use.

MetO use a blend of DECIDER/MOGREPS/UKV and I understand their 'automated' output is edited somewhat manually.

BBC use mostly ECM (under contract with Meteogroup) for graphics forecasts and the app data is fully automated on ECM output.

Weatheronline and some of the other apps use GFS raw for automated.

This is why you get differences.

I don't like the apps - much prefer to do my own forecasting using blended model data which is better I find.

My understanding is that Weatheronline has an algorithm that estimates whether conditions are such that the precipitation will fall as rain, sleet or snow.  That being the case it’s going to be wrong when the underlying data about the atmosphere is wrong.

Nor do I. That said, too many people treat the apps like gospel and then go all silly when what the app suggested a week ago turns out to be false. I know people who take them literally, especially in the summer and plan their lives around them for things like barbecues and trips to the beach a week in advance. And then blame the Met Office, BBC or whoever when they don't come true on the day.

But for tomorrow, the BBC say this for me.

Tomorrow, it will stay dry and cold. Wintry sunshine is expected early in the morning, though it will then quickly cloud over from the south. A few (my underlining) coastal showers, possibly wintry. Gentle winds. (The app shows some afternoon light sleet)

But still the warning.  A weather system may push snow into some southern counties of England on Wednesday, which could then prove disruptive.

The classic forecaster's nightmare in other words. Dammed of course if they suggest whatever is the actual outcome.

Personally, I doubt it will come to much. We need a proper Scandi High for that and a continental hard frost with an easterly drift in our direction.

Will that happen this winter? I have my doubts here too.

AROME and ICON have shifted north again, but still not enough. Arpege just clips the south coast. None of them interested in Friday. So just GFS , but lets see if it falls into line in a few minutes

Nope, GFS still going for it lol

Though not as far north as the 06z sadly. Lets see what it does for Friday

Radar from this point on lol, in November high res models going for a couple of cms here, got 12 in the end. Fingers crossed for a good covering at least.

I guess it still might snow tomorrow IMBY but it's looking rather more likely we'll get a few spits and spots of rain at best instead unless the US and Canada pull off an unexpected victory.  I have had both the dry day when forecast rain and wet day when forecast dry scenario from not wildly dissimilar set ups so it's still possible the models haven't got things quite right but when the majority including the higher res models all sing from the same hymn sheet it's not usually a good sign! 

IME it's *very* unusual to get such persistent disagreement between models as close as we are now - only a day away. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the end!

The GFS has, incidentally, dropped any hint of sleet or snow here tomorrow, just having icy cold rain instead. Lovely. GEM has the most meagre of dustings and MetO has a few hours of light rain. You're better placed down there, so might see a few flakes. The best place to be, though, would have to be higher ground further west...

Tomorrow:

REGIONAL FORECAST FOR

Southwest England

Wednesday

A cold but cloudier start to Wednesday. Rain spreading north and east, with some sleet and snow possible along the south coast and over hills for a time.

Maximum temperature 6°C.

Beyond:

REGIONAL FORECAST FOR

Southwest England

Thursday to Saturday

Brighter on Thursday with sunshine and isolated showers. Cloudier on Friday and Saturday with outbreaks of rain and hill snow for a time. Cold, but turning milder by the weekend.

Hadn't looked at the UKMO charts when I posted - can see that's trended north from this mornings run albeit as you say it's mainly rain for Kent, away from the highest ground.

I do have the advantage of sitting on one of the ridgelines locally (about 430ft) so I occasionally luck out and get snow when it's a sleety mix lower down but unless we get heavier precip  suspect it won't help this time. 

So far this spell is one of those frustrating 'nearly but not quite' things although there was a brief wintry shower even down in Tonbridge earlier, so I've seen snow falling twice if nothing else!

That 'with some sleet and snow possible along the south coast and over hills for a time'. seems like an odd call.  Surely we would be expecting  'Away from the south coast and over hills for a time' if any snow is to be in the mix.