The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
06 January 2025 18:01:27
GFS looking rather isolated in bringing the snow far enough north to affect my area on Wednesday. Fingers crossed...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

nsrobins
06 January 2025 18:19:02
With the focus on Weds, a stealth event might be developing for Friday.
Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Brian Gaze
06 January 2025 18:22:30

With the focus on Weds, a stealth event might be developing for Friday.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Indeed. I just flagged it on X.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

+1
Matty H
06 January 2025 18:36:17

...and, of course, following a snowy GFS (and indeed GEM) in the south, the 12z MetO runs the low further south - it still affects the far south (as in further south than here), but is mostly rain.

It's going to be a long 42 hours or so!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I wouldn’t look at the FAX chart if I was you either. 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Hippydave
06 January 2025 18:42:29
FWIW ECM for Weds has a coastal clipper and a bit of light rain IMBY and then largely kills off the precip from Friday's LP with only the SW peninsula seeing anything (mostly rain away from the moors), although some of the energy heads NE and brings some precip for N.Wales up to Scotland, it dies off quickly and doesn't cross the country.

Edit  - removed comment re block being shunted away by Friday's precip as bit inaccurate!

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

Saint Snow
06 January 2025 19:21:32

The hi-res models all showing little features moving down Irish Sea tonight & tomorrow in that NWly flow, bringing snow (sleet/rain nearer coasts) to NW England and N Wales, with a good chance of some reaching the N Midlands.

Fingers crossed

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

First big shower recently moved through.... it was rain

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Tim A
06 January 2025 19:52:01
Surprised it's still 1.6c here despite almost clear skies and deep snow cover. Doesn't bode well for any showers.  The air can't be that cold. 

Thankfully it's cold enough that the ground is frozen solid.  

Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

doctormog
06 January 2025 19:56:25

Surprised it's still 1.6c here despite almost clear skies and deep snow cover. Doesn't bode well for any showers.  The air can't be that cold. 

Thankfully it's cold enough that the ground is frozen solid.  

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

There is quite a bit of (relatively) mild air associated with the departing low pressure. Most of the showers here today have been wet rather than white since yesterday but hit has had limited impact on the snow cover due to the preceding cold conditions. I think things may turn colder/more wintry from the north later on tonight.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

ballamar
06 January 2025 20:38:23
For the system on Wednesday got a horrible feeling the DPs will creep the wrong side of 0 if the precipitation makes it far enough North for Essex and most of the Kent coast! Some inland prone areas could do quite well with 5-10cm. Would be a lot happier if Europe was a lot colder
Chunky Pea
06 January 2025 21:46:47

Surprised it's still 1.6c here despite almost clear skies and deep snow cover. Doesn't bode well for any showers.  The air can't be that cold. 

Thankfully it's cold enough that the ground is frozen solid.  

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

Same temp here and showers passing over now are a mix of rain and snow. Really incredible that despite the cold air mass,  getting temps to fall below zero is practically impossible. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Polar Low
06 January 2025 21:54:35
Saint Snow
06 January 2025 21:56:00

Same temp here and showers passing over now are a mix of rain and snow. Really incredible that despite the cold air mass,  getting temps to fall below zero is practically impossible. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Yep. The feed from that Greenland High is really powderpuff. 

I thought by today that the problem would be getting ppn, because I assumed anything falling would be snow.

Wrong.

The radar shows plenty of showers around NW England and N Wales. They're falling as rain (maybe sleet)

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

+1
Saint Snow
06 January 2025 21:59:34

Gfs 18z sticks to its guns but looks isolated major coup if it has this right

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=18&charthour=48&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

I really hope this comes off for you southerners 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Polar Low
06 January 2025 22:03:15

I really hope this comes off for you southerners 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I doubt it Martin fax looks a long way south to me I wish it was different.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=fax&model=fax 

Polar Low
06 January 2025 22:21:08
Gfs  mean does look further north than Icon.

Maybe further North than it’s Opp

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=66&mode=2&carte=0&ext=0 

Tim A
06 January 2025 22:31:24
When was the last time there was a classic 'channel low'?
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Polar Low
06 January 2025 22:41:46

When was the last time there was a classic 'channel low'?

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

The best ones were Dec 81 seem to be one after the other very snowy at that time here in Essex

Some were forecast at the time to break thru with mild  I remember seeing those forecast before I went to bed but high pressure over the NE and North remained victorious.

 

+1
Brian Gaze
06 January 2025 22:52:24

Gfs 18z sticks to its guns but looks isolated major coup if it has this right

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=18&charthour=48&chartname=preciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

I think the horizontal resolution of the GFS is lower than GEM, UK Met Global and ECM. Therefore, it has a tendency to show more precipitation over a bigger area. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

tallyho_83
06 January 2025 22:59:09

I really hope this comes off for you southerners 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Us too because we missed the "proper snow" on Saturday evening and night as most of the accumulating snow except moors was m4 northwards and this looks like most of the accumulating snow will be m4 southwards so a flip with luck for those who missed out on the snow over weekend.

What BBC forecast btw from Matt Taylor. - Widely 2-5cm's south of M4

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Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

+1
tallyho_83
06 January 2025 23:16:56
I am unsure if this should be in snow potential trend or model output but anyway:

Impressive snowfall spike for Exeter city - Devon 

Wednesday:

UserPostedImage

Gets better for Salisbury:

UserPostedImage

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

squish
06 January 2025 23:40:02
That feature over Ireland right now might be a feature for the SW overnight .
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
fairweather
06 January 2025 23:54:07
I feel that we have one of those situations now where snow could spring up almost anywhere at fairly short notice. Not particularly of any great significance but I suspect many will be surprised at some point in the next 5 days.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
tallyho_83
07 January 2025 00:01:09

I feel that we have one of those situations now where snow could spring up almost anywhere at fairly short notice. Not particularly of any great significance but I suspect many will be surprised at some point in the next 5 days.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Southend-on sea (Your neck of the woods, I believe) has a ENS mean of 4cm's of snow by 18:00 on Wednesday 8th.

UserPostedImage

Big upgrade in snow for the south.

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Zubzero
07 January 2025 02:17:24

I really hope this comes off for you southerners 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Probably will,  Ive seen it happen before where it misses just 10 or so miles to the of Cambridge.

Doubt it will nudge any further north (that would in turn make rain more likely for the far South) My educated guess would be for it to be further South then the GFS shows and make it 20-30  miles inland at best! These systems tend to stay South most of the time. 

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