GFS 0z - a decent hit, snow right along the southern coastal strip to MBY, which is shown to have several hours of snow falling. Snow may reach a touch further than the M4 this time, with a brief bit of light stuff for far S.Wales and similar for Essex and maybe Suffolk.

UKMO - a hit but far less extensive than GFS and more of a wintry mix. Only really affects coastal counties and not too far inland and only for a couple of hours.

UKV - similar to UKMO (as you'd expect I guess) but more snow shading suggesting might be just the right side of marginal. 

GEM - a decent hit albeit may start as rain before the heavier precip sets in and presumably cools the air sufficiently for it to snow. Another one that affects a bit further north - roughly in a line from S.Wales to Suffolk. As with GFS it shows several hours of snow IMBY.

Arpege - similar to UKV in extent and duration. There's a fair bit of rain involved, again suggesting it'll be a rain to snow event as the heavier precip nudges in. 

ECM - Fairly similar to UKMO but shows as rain IMBY with a bit of snow on the northern most extent of the precip band in parts of the SW and Hampshire.

GEFS (London) - has mostly removed the members that brought mild air further north as a result of the LP taking a more northerly track. 24 snow row.

MOGREPS (London) - no milder members as the LP moves in, with some precip spikes.

ECM - only 2 members still have mild air and presumably a much further north placement. Some precip spikes.

I think all in all it's still hard to say what will happen - as it stands there's fairly high confidence the LP will graze the far south but still uncertain how far north the precip will get and whether it's snow or rain/sleet. The spread above could give anything from a few CM to a couple of hours of cold rain IMBY.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx 

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2025-01-08&id=694fd76c-2683-476d-998f-d7378d9e46aa 

If I lived in the southern half of the IOW I’d be annoyed 😂😂

Looks like that little feature on the fax chart will enhance shower activity tonight too, warning out for that also.

The feeling in East Hertfordshire isn't much better. 🤬🤬🤬

Or Weymouth… 😉

The southern boundary line looks somewhat arbitrary, since it covers areas to the west that are a fair bit further south.

One other thing to keep an eye on is Friday's system - shows a spell of snow (with some rain around too) for the SW as the front pushes in to HP over the UK before it fizzles out.

Being not so much IMBY, probably worth keeping an eye out for troughs etc. over the next 3-4 days - there's the enhanced showery activity for Wales and parts of the SW Monday night into Tuesday as per comments above, which may bring some more central areas in to play too and something of a more organised band of precip for Scotland early Thursday AM according to the GFS anyway.

Neither am I, but for a different reason - it looks like it'll just be too warm, with GFS and MetO raw both having several hours of cold rain here.

It's sod's law! This weekend's low, which would have brought much more in the way of snow, was too far north in the end. This low coming up looks to be on a perfect track, but it's currently looking too warm. All we need to complete the set is a snow-bearing low to head too far south. 😂

Yes, I've been looking at the fax and Thursday looked interesting when I last looked.

Indeed, Weymouth is to all intents and purposes a Snow Free Zone.

The Isle of Portland though, which sticks into the Channel and is quite high up in places, can see snow whilst at sea level in Weymouth zilch.

Once you get over the Ridgeway to the north, snow is possible though rare. There must be many people who live in Weymouth where snow is now a distant memory.

What will happen on Wednesday, who knows? I don't think anyone does. The Met Office give me a few hours of rain/sleet at the Dorset Snow Centre.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcn26g29b#?date=2025-01-08 

I guess it's mostly about agencies covering their collective backs as they take into account the general public wanting to be spoon fed everything due to lack of lateral thinking or/and commonsense in this day and age. Of course, if there is going to be a real noteworthy weather event that does actually justify a warning then I'll back it up, but this upcoming one isn't it. 

Spot on really, from all angles. 

Fingers crossed

Moving way O/T and I suspect I won't be here to see it but would be interesting in a removed observer kind of way to see if the AMOC does shut down and what that would do for our winters. Locally I believe it would far outweigh the affects of global warming but would be 'bad' when it started up again as the heat would jump significantly with the local masking removed etc. 

Back on the warnings front I kind of mentioned it earlier but I'd say the MetO warning was sensible and conveyed the risk and uncertainty well. Snow is relatively rare down here so a possible 2-10cm fall that may be during rush hour warrants highlighting - us weather nerds don't really need to be told but the general public probably do (particularly as people are rubbish at driving in normal winter conditions).  

We have the luxury of stating 'it won't happen' and being very certain regardless of the possibilities but given the output as of this morning still showed a range of possible outcomes and one of those is potentially disruptive (GEM) to not mention it as the national weather body would be rather negligent. I think when I looked at the Ops in isolation earlier and ignoring GEM all the models had 2-10mm of precip from the system for at least some southern coastal counties, which *if* it fell as snow is enough to cause issues. These 'events' do often turn out to be nothing but occasionally they end up worse than expected and as all that it would take is a nudge north by 20-30 miles even on the more pessimistic models, a 'be aware it might happen' warning that can be removed if the models firm up on a non-event is entirely reasonable. 

Others of course will disagree and yes it does look daft when you look back on the 80s and the routine falls we had locally but we're in rather different times now and if nothing else the amount of traffic on the roads means any kind of incident or event can cause issues. 

Not really for here, but I’ve commented on the AMOC shutdown scenario in the UIA thread.  Suffice to say the change happens over years to very few decades - and you don’t need to worry about it restarting again for a long while.  What’s jaw-dropping is the modelling showing warming continuing in the Med area of southern Europe, setting up an extraordinary temperature gradient across Europe.

I would say down here land above 200m and a few miles away from the coast should see some wet snow. The further you head east the better change you have. 

Not too far east, mind you...

Here (which is almost as far east as you can get, and indeed due east of Leysdown there's nothing for over 100 miles) the MetO raw now has 2 or 3C and light rain, compared to several more hours of light or heavy rain in this morning's forecast.

GFS will show a sleetfest, I think, when xc updates shortly.

EDIT: Yup! Loads of sleet, but a bit more pure snow than I was expecting.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/xc2.jpg 

Further west it's much less marginal. Here's the forecast near Reading:

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/beenham 

5cm of snow, an ice day, more snow on Friday, then a continuation of cold conditions into the weekend. I think the Arctic wolves who live at Beenham would be happy with that forecast!

It's going to be a long 42 hours or so!

GFS - potentially decent if it's snow rather than a wintry mix. Certainly if it all fell as snow there's potential for several CMs. (If that XC weather app uses GFS it's around 11mm of precip for me, temps around 1c but a wintry mix rather than all snow. Would be a touch miserable in a strong easterly breeze!). 

GEM - potentially pretty good although shows snow/rain/snow as pulses of precip move through again suggesting it's marginal.

UKMO more of a coastal clipper IMBY (more extensive for the SW) and away from the SW moors it's shown as rain. 

ARPEGE - another clipper and mostly just rain IMBY (light precip though so won't amount to much).

ICON - more of a SW to central england coastal affair although a second pulse moves through later and hits MBY. Looks like a wintry mix for many that see the precip, with not much rain or snow falling IMBY. 

MetO app has me down for sleet at midday, then a 2 flake snow symbol at 15:00 and one flake by 18:00. 

So who knows at this point - could still range from 'decent' to a bit of light rain.