The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Jiries
29 December 2024 06:11:52

Most people and the media suffer from severe imbyisem. 

Would be more attention and posts about a dusting in the Southern England then what is expected to happen in the coming cold spell. 

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2024122812/gens-31-9-240.png 

The mean snow accumulation @ 240h shows the most likely outcome IMO, a dusting to a few cm at best for most lowland locations with bigger falls restricted to higher ground away from the north. 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 

Waste of time those charts and all wrong as well.  Seen many times put red over here when actual is nothing to dusting.  

Retron
29 December 2024 06:17:45

Waste of time those charts and all wrong as well.  Seen many times put red over here when actual is nothing to dusting.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

That chart is a mean chart, which is always going to be dodgy for snow! It's like taking the average of three women - one who's pregnant, two who aren't. You can't, after all, be a third pregnant, and so it is with snow - you either have some or you don't. A better metric is the number of members showing snow on the ground versus those without.

Leysdown, north Kent
+4
Zubzero
29 December 2024 08:11:37
Yeah I was using it more to show what I thought would be the general chances of snowfall over this cold spell, 

This morning's GFS op for Sheffield area, over a foot! All right for some

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=268&y=39&run=0&runpara=0&type=11&ext=1 

+1
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
29 December 2024 08:37:44
I don’t have a problem with imbyism, providing people say which area they’re referring to.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

+4
StoneCroze
29 December 2024 09:19:11
Sea temp. locally is still up around 10.5C.  Fingers crossed for a Channel streamer to get set up. 

Alderney, Channel Islands. (previously known as Beaufort)
Tim A
30 December 2024 06:41:11
NYD snow event looks unlikely now . The low isn't as prominent , doesn't move as far North and the cold air isn't embedded with the precipitation further South to give snow .  Only GFS really showing a decent fall somewhere now. Really disappointing. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 December 2024 07:52:17

NYD snow event looks unlikely now . The low isn't as prominent , doesn't move as far North and the cold air isn't embedded with the precipitation further South to give snow .  Only GFS really showing a decent fall somewhere now. Really disappointing. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

Here's the straw. The key moment is at around 30 hours in the azores area and how the incipient low interacts with the jet; very small differences make a large difference.

https://weatherobs.com/ 

Look here and notice the grey dots (where marine obs are) in the azores, its pretty sparse. I know satellites are also used these days but it does still make a difference. So the hope is because the crucial moment has few observations the ensembles could be underspread and more options are still on the table for NYD.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Tim A
30 December 2024 10:05:03
Even GFS backing off this now, a bit of snowfall further South but it's trending towards the other models unfortunately. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

+1
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 December 2024 11:35:59

Even GFS backing off this now, a bit of snowfall further South but it's trending towards the other models unfortunately. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

More GFS members still have it on the 6z wierdly.

There are some that actually blow it up far too much.

Not a done deal yet.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

fullybhoy
30 December 2024 11:40:41
Couple of days ago Central Scotland was looking like getting a good 20 cm's of snow on NYD ......there was even talk of places like Altnaharra looking like the Canadian tundra.......👀 no chance now......as is often the case  
Alan

Glasgow 165m/asl

Saint Snow
30 December 2024 12:03:24

Even GFS backing off this now, a bit of snowfall further South but it's trending towards the other models unfortunately. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

6z brings hope to us both!

UserPostedImage

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Matty H
30 December 2024 12:20:11
Snow warnings for the north for NYD have now been removed and replaced with rain for some up there and in the west 
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 December 2024 12:29:12

Snow warnings for the north for NYD have now been removed and replaced with rain for some up there and in the west 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Will be egg on face if some of these GFS ensembles end up being right.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Matty H
30 December 2024 12:32:21

Will be egg on face if some of these GFS ensembles end up being right.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Sometimes existing yellow warnings are removed before being replaced with new Amber ones. Can’t see anything in the models that would justify an Amber snow warning though. 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 December 2024 12:32:22
GEFS standard deviation. Always fun to see the blobs of colour being higher over the UK than anywhere else on NYD.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2024123006/gensnh-32-0-54.png 

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-32-4-54.png?6 

As I say, the majority of the GEFS have this as a closed circulation, not a bump on the cold front. Unless the GEFS are overspread for some reason, we cannot discount the previous scenario.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 December 2024 12:33:44
P5 is a pretty funny one.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Tim A
30 December 2024 12:34:50
Finding it hard to quote.

6z is okay in isolation (as per chart posted above by Saint) but it's in the process of massively climbing down towards all other models which show no snowfall anywhere. 

There are some good 6z ensembles, but has to be a really long shot now. 

Met Office snow warnings for Southern Scotland to South Yorkshire have been removed this morning. 

Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

doctormog
30 December 2024 12:45:09
Snow and ice warnings have been added in for northern Scotland (albeit not here) for New Year’s Day.

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2025-01-01 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Jiries
30 December 2024 13:00:01

Finding it hard to quote.

6z is okay in isolation (as per chart posted above by Saint) but it's in the process of massively climbing down towards all other models which show no snowfall anywhere. 

There are some good 6z ensembles, but has to be a really long shot now. 

Met Office snow warnings for Southern Scotland to South Yorkshire have been removed this morning. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

With LP over us there must be some features or disturbances in the flow to give us snow in the first opening days of Jan.   Impossible to be super bone dry under unstable air flow and we not under HP, mine you the recent nasty HP that had left here yesterday brought lot of rain and dull weather. 

Hippydave
30 December 2024 17:14:24
Looks rather snowy on the Cairngorm webcam at the mo!
Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

Saint Snow
30 December 2024 17:30:30
GFS now bailed on the scenario of back-edge snow this NYD for a central swathe of the UK. It was the last model holding out on this possibility.

😖

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

doctormog
30 December 2024 19:10:14

Looks rather snowy on the Cairngorm webcam at the mo!

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

It will probably get a lot of snow in the coming hours, followed by a lot of rain, and then some snow!

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
31 December 2024 09:59:55
So NYDs low has evaporated, but we now have an interesting trend towards the parent low strengthening on the occluded front that comes through after the active cold front.

Producing more snow now for SW scotland in particular.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Tim A
31 December 2024 10:13:27
Yes indeed Q , looks like it could produce some snow in NE England too, it's more pronounced on GFS 6Z (not seen UKV 6z yet), need some upgrades but it's the most likely way we could get some snow here tomorrow . Need relatively intense precipitation though as air is not especially cold when it comes through.  Met office App shows a period of sleet here in the evening. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

doctormog
31 December 2024 11:23:33
An interesting paragraph from the Met Office on their latest (snow and ice) warning for the far north of the Scottish mainland.

“Strong winds may exacerbate impacts, particularly across the areas affected by snow. Blizzard conditions are possible, especially over high ground and across much of Sutherland and Caithness. Powerline icing is possible where blizzard conditions occur.”

That’s one way to see in the New Year!

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2025-01-01&id=4981c628-d216-4bac-9fb4-a0e58b8effcf 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Remove ads from site