Have to say, the 0z GFS is even more atrocious than yesterday's 12z (didn't see the 18z). I still think everyone's focusing more on the snow/cold/exciting stuff rather than the horrendous New Year's Day to come. (Understandable for those up north, mind you, who'll yet again get to miss the worst - this is a repeating theme this autumn/winter).

The MetO raw now has gusts to 55, as high as I've ever seen them 4 days out, and this morning's GFS serves up 75mph here, which would be very destructive. More widely there are gusts in the low to high 60s across Wales and the MIdlands south - the vast majority of the population would be affected.

There remains some hope in that the GEFS doesn't show it as being inevitable, but a strong or destructively strong spell of winds is still likely.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/47/22025/90_289UKxlk7.GIF 

Even Arpege is on board now, and I always take note of that as it got the 1987 storm whereas MetO's model didn't. As a reminder, burgundy is 62+, the purple shade up from it is 68+. These winds are rare inland and would, given the sodden ground, bring down many a tree.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/33/11224/arpegeuk_52_102_0zvw0.png 

Yes, but it's a much smaller chance than it was this time yesterday - you have to dig into ensembles to find that option. All the main models have a swathe of 60+ winds crossing England and Wales, but some (e.g. ICON and MetO) show a narrower, weaker band (but still with 60+) compared to the others.

I'd say it's very likely that the low will take the northern track, the devil in the detail will be how much it can deepen as it moves across. Less deepening = slightly less strong winds. This morning's operational GFS was at the extreme end of the pack, hopefully not leading the way!

I would expect warnings to be issued later today, on the basis that one was deemed necessary yesterday for 50-60 gusts over high areas on Monday.

If was blizzards same time then yes wouldn’t mind that as not seen this since 22nd Jan 2005 blizzards in Toronto which I love to experience here.   Let see how it goes on Wed on the track of this low. 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/ens.png?29 

Its too early to tell. My experience is these things are always more likely to trend south. And Sheffield most of the time ends up being the sweet spot. No guarantees but I'd expect a southward shift more likely than a northward one.

The ICON3Z has shifted south on the 0Z for what its worth.

UKV3Z is also about 50 miles south of the UKV0Z

Havent seen a chart like that for maybe 2 or 3 yrs... 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=5&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1 

WX charts; week 1 just about on the cold side of norm for N Europe inc Britain, with  the unusually above norm to the NE getting pushed S-wards to the Black Sea. In week 2, indications of a full-on E-ly with freezing weather across all of N Europe, affecting most of Britain and ultra cold for Scandinavia. But there's quite a sharp temp gradient N-wards from Mid-France which with Spain stays quite mild, with the implication of 'interesting' weather along the Channel. Pptn quite heavy in week 1 for N Scotland and N France; in week 2 affecting most of W Europe with the heaviest for Portugal, SW Britain and the Alps.

GFS Op 00z: current HP fading rapidly. Small LP 995mb running across Scotland Tue 31st then a deeper one 985mb across N Britain Wed 1st though not as stormy as on some of yesterday's charts. This begins to draw in the N-lies, gently at first, much stronger Tue 7th as LP 980mb runs up the English Channel. This runs into Scandinavia and keeps NE-lies going for a while before pressure rises over Greenland and diverts a deep LP 965mb towards Biscay with strong E-lies for Britain, looking very cold in Scotland as the source there in N Norway rather than N Germany, as for England.

FAX has both storms, 998mb Tue 31st Scotland, and 990mb Wed 1st SW England, and looks stormier than GFS.

ECM: Not nearly as dramatic as GFS; LP Wed doesn't amount to much and the winds soon back into the NW rather than N - though in the last chart of the run Wed 8th, HP near Iceland is encouraging a cold pool over Germany to track towards Britain. 

GEM: also downgrades the NYD storm though strong enough to draw in NE-lies for a while before relaxing to NW-ly like ECM. Then on Tue 7th an LP tracking down the N Sea brings in some very cold air from the east with a large HP block over Greenland.

GEFS: Although a random selection of milder outliers in the S offer a note of caution to cold rampers, the large majority of ens members descend into the freezer Thu 2nd (5C below norm) and agree to stay there for several days, slowly relaxing their grip and becoming less unanimous after Thu 9th though mean is still a couple of degrees below norm. Pptn heavy 1st/2nd, also 31st/1st in Scotland, some more likely  for England around Sun 5th, persisting with small amounts thereafter. Snow row predicting chances of 1/3 in the south, 2/3 for N England, certain for N Scotland; lower snow row figures after NYD probably indicating that if there is pptn it will be snow, rather than a choice between rain and snow.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

For most 😂

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2024122906/gfs-0-78.png?6 

Let hope so and having no more wet, rainy dull HP in Jan the better is.   i also wondering the cold air from the east feeding the N Altantic will help to lower the SSTs to normal levels so giving us a better summer afterward?  I read that recent high SSTs over that regions gave us very poor summer set-up.

Norwich has hit 143 on the snow row ! You are probably well placed for snow, I could be but may be a bit too far south, we will see.

Yes, unfortunately the 6z GFS ramps the winds up even more - that's widespread 70s to 75s across everywhere from the Midlands south. Atrocious once again, and most discomfiting considering that the 0z op, which had lower speeds, was already above the rest of the GEFS pack.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/1/5989/84_289UKuuv2.GIF 

I can only hope the GFS is still overdoing that low. If not, it'll be widespread destruction and will doubtless be the main headline news. It would also lead to widespread power cuts just as the weather turns much colder!

I still expect a warning to be issued today.

47cm over Brimingham area? why we get more than the east as they suppose to be more than us?

Nothing to speak of here in 2021. The good old Beast was the only thing really of any note snow wise or deep snow in last 13 years. Let's hope it doesn't kick off the basic climate change deniers.

At least it moves through fairly quickly but so did the Oct 87 Great storm. 

I think our luck has finally run out.  Those insurance companies are going to be busy

Good old day 10 for the South

Frankly I'd rather lose the snow and lose the winds at the same time, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if instead we lost the snow and kept the winds!

Indeed , I've probably posted 100s if not 1000s of snowy charts on this forum over the years.  How often do they come off? Probably less that 2%.