Amber warnings out today perhaps.

I'd expect yellow but on the amber track - possibly becoming amber tomorrow if the widespread 60s+ continue to be shown. We'll see soon enough...

This latest (06z) GFS op run seems to bury the Pennines in snow but the details are very much up for grabs.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/28/3642/arpege_52_98_0dhx2.png 

EDIT: Here's the TWO view of the GFS wind gusts - note the mid to high 70s about as inland as you can get! It still baffles me why there's not more interest in the winds.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_84_windvector_gust.png 

Your expectations are realistic.

With decent confidence a yellow will be issued in the morning covering Wednesday risks and upgraded to Amber on Tuesday should confidence increase further, which seems likely.

Certainly fine margins - pushes the low further north so on Sunday it has a max of 12C in London and 0C in Leicester. Rather reminiscent of November where we had a huge temperature gradient across the south. 

The 06Z ‘solution’ from day 7 if you believe such a thing is possible is well within the ENS envelope and a variation on a theme. If expect it to wave around the general idea for a few days.

I’m especially interested in the 3-4day period with severe gales and heavy snow in the mix for the UK.

All by a modest 985 mb low which isn't that exceptional (Ciaran last November was 964 mb when it passed almost directly over Kent). Seems that this time round the issue lies with a tight pressure gradient due to high pressure still being close by to the south. 

The one tiny crumb of comfort I might just be able to derive out of this upcoming set up is it being fairly fleeting with hopefully just a few hours of peak gusts on the Wednesday evening as that runner low races through the middle part of the country (but like you say there are still some changes). Darragh was a much more slower moving system with an unusual direction, so the strong winds lasted for literally days.

PS: in a MUCH more IMBY aspect (sorry some of you), I'm also hoping that this forecast wind may just have enough of a SW component for my house to be sheltered by the nearby built-up hilly bit. 🤣

Well, the good news (if any) is that most of the GEFS keep the winds in the 60s, rather than the 70s. The bad news is that there were some members that supported the op, and this... well, suffice to say that lighter purple colour over Kent, East Anglia etc is 81mph, and there's a smidge of 87mph winds just offshore.

I continue to hope for a downgrade, it's still far enough away that it's plausible.

(And while you're protected from SW'lies, I'd rather have southerlies - my neighbour's massive house shields me nicely! I think it's going to be bog-standard SW'lies though... the 6z GFS has SSW'lies veering WSW'ly during the 70mph+ phase of the storm down here).

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/55/7038/gensfr_4_8_84rpt9.png 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_150_1.png 

Hopefully no worse than the last one where we were under a red warning, and it was just a run of the mill storm for here

After all that looks like nothing will verify now looking at the 06z runs. Sad. What looked like a prolonged cold and wintry spell and blocked pattern with multiple snow events and persistent easterlies have been replaced by westerlies and this annoying Azores ridge to our south! Or am I being too pessimistic here? To me if the 06z verifies it looks like NYD will be more seasonal and 2nd will be cooler and 3rd will be colder than average followed by milder weather on 4th and to remain unsettled and milder thereafter!? I suppose Met Office will have to update their text forecast to show milder wetter weather and removed the newly worded "easterly". But the fact there was so much cross model agreement for cold to remain post 4th January.

After the NYD rain, MBY gets a couple of hours of back-edge snow as the low pulls away. A cold few days then loads of snow from the feature next Sunday.

Track and trajectory is obviously going to change each run, but hoping to be within the sweet area when it gets settled.

Wouldn’t be interesting if it was guaranteed would it 😂 the snap itself could disappear! If I was Midlands and further North would definitely be prepping for some heavy snow though

I blame Brian for mentioning “significant cold” on the homepage…

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=06&lid=ENS&bw=1 

At the surface the suite still translates to a prolonged cold spell:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

We’re rarely going to see continuous silly 1684 charts like last nights pub run so expect the usual wobbles and caveats. 

"A deep area of low pressure is expected to cross the UK from the west, bringing a spell of very strong winds. Gusts of 65-75 mph are likely around coasts and hills, especially in the south and west, with 50-60 mph gusts likely fairly widely inland."

There are also some snow warnings for northern England, southern Scotland and Northern Ireland, and again these are on the amber track.

A band of rain in association with a deep low pressure system moving in from the west pushes east on Wednesday. This is likely to turn to snow as it moves into cold air across the northern half of the UK. 2-5 cm and locally nearer 10 cm of snow accumulations are possible widely, with 10-15 cm and locally 20-25 cm over hills with significant drifting due to strong winds.

The fact that there are now weather warnings out for the coming week for wind, snow and rain sums up the outlook quite well!

What a split in the 06Z ENS

Absolutely - I won't be telling friends and family just yet because that usually does for it ! Funny the trash media and click bait sites don't seemed to have picked up on it yet. Probably because they are so used to making weather extreme stuff up they miss the truth!

I don’t recall seeing anyone commenting on the NAVGEM output? 🤔😉