That could be nasty Doc and could even give Edinburgh some blowing snow!

While us here at Kent look on in envy as we experience yet more rain and in-your-face southerly gales as that low pressure bomb through the UK. Yes, there is something of a seasonal flavour for most of the country once that low pressure tumble onto the North Sea, but those post-low pressure wintry set ups tend to be showery, short lived and marginal in nature for us South Coast gang - and even then have to get through two or three days of wind and rain to get to that. Thus it is of little interest to me as far as my back yard is concerned. When I start seeing a scandi high pulling -16 C uppers under a long fetched north east airflow in 48 hours range then I might raise an eyebrow.

Now I'm starting to sound like Jiries. 😃

Indeed, I've a sinking feeling that we're going to see yet more destructive winds widely across England and perhaps Wales in a few days' time. The 6z GEFS members, for example, have large swathes of 60+ gusts... It's mostly a matter of "how strong" rather than "if". A couple of random 6z GEFS members as an example. (The high res GEFS charts on MC don't cover the whole of the UK, sadly).

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/88/13801/gensfr_3_8_114xjx6.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/4635/gensfr_8_8_108zzu9.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/59/19989/gensfr_24_2_114kmb3.png 

Can you imagine the chaos that would cause!

The 06z GFS op meanwhile is going for a very anticyclonic (and chilly) medium term.

Gfs 06z Operational shows colder than average weather up until 12th and maxes of +2s and +3s widely. He control plunges Europe into the freezer we are colder than average still. We shall see. Interesting strat developments too.

The most notable fall being on the 1st with this snapshot (Northern Scotland gets most of it's snow from the preceding LPs):-

With some damaging winds around too (and for the Western Isles on 31/12):-

I imagine the snowfall picture will be different come the day but given recent form I wouldn't bet against a significant wind event. I guess that does all depend on the modelling of the jet and how it develops the LP so there's plenty of time still for things to change and the LP not to deepen so explosively. 

In terms of the bigger picture and it still looks like a colder spell is favoured, even IMBY, although there's enough dissenting members particularly on southern ens set to make a collapse to mild after a couple of cold days a possible albeit currently much less likely scenario. HP looks to be generally close to the UK after the above LP/LPs finish with us, so I'd imagine it would be fairly dry for many, away from prone areas. 

It's not the worst model watching at the moment, albeit I'd imagine most would be happy to see the models move away from phasing the LP with the jet to bring about the above outcome from a wind POV. 

Worrying trend for the high to sink and all the good stuff heading for Greece as is usual in the modern winter

…take the 06 ensembles in isolation and it’s a much colder picture than usual for early January. 

It looks like a hurricane. Lets hope this is wrong

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2024122806/gens-8-1-108.png 

Not one ground or airfrost so far this December...it's incredible.  Wow.

Same here, Incredible really and my expectations of the possible upcoming cold spell are very low, probably be max temps of 2-3c and a few frosts at night with no snow as that's what all cold snaps seem to deliver these days.

Hmm, the last frostless December here was the infamous 2015, the absolute low was 1.0. It's currently running at 1.1 this month - but with the unexpectedly cold day today, will that be beaten tonight? There's a decent chance, I'd guess, as the models are showing it to be 4C (MetO) or 6C (GFS) right now, but it's only 2.2... and that *is* cold for late December here.

 Nothing wrong with it as you live there pay council tax rent or mortgage then too right to focus on on your area.  

That wasn't there in the 00z. Honest! 

(But it was there in  yesterday's 00z - just another tiny flip and back again)

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/2/29682/animfjs4.gif 

It is interesting how both charts (2m temp anoms) are basically showing the same pattern broadly speaking. 

EC:

Control:

To be fair, you'd expect them to be much the same at only T+90 - it's a shame that site doesn't go beyond that! (There's no excuse really for it in this day and age either, but as you say you do see similar effects on other sites - WZ has been doing it for decades.)

T'other thing that stands out is the sheer warmth over and east of Hudson Bay. This morning's 0z ECM had 22C positive anomalies there around the same time (at 850), the whole airmass is just ridiculously warm.

Chances of a snow event central areas increasing. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=114&mode=16