Yes, the sudden shift in the major models is quite notable and surely must be regarded as a signal of some strength, even at this early stage.  Of particular interest, as mentioned, is the AIFS which was picking this up last night.  So if things do indeed pan out along the lines of the current Ops, will we remember this as the time that AI really came of age as a forecasting tool?

My interest is to see the back of this rainy dull HP out of the way as it been so dull and wet than the storm can produce,  Dry, then rain then dry when storm passed but HP no it 24/7 constant rain and dullness.  Some saying about snow over the Midlands in the New Year day so will see if this happen.  Once again just want the HP out for good.

Seen those ensembles for London and Nuneaton, both have precips high spikes same time at low 850's so we should be seeing snowfall from here to London area.  Not bone dry cold setup.

I saw that. I guess this year for the first time in many years we won't hear the "Darren Bett's catchphrase of "at least it will be mild" or "new year...old weather!"

The control run is an absolute cracker. Very indicative of a - NAO and -AO. It also shows a significant SW over the pole again at the end of the run. Interesting times. Tbh I would be delighted to see the back of this borefest of endless doom n gloomy and misty, drizzly, muggy and murky weather.

Looks like things could get Interesting by the new year. Whilst the models have flipped they have basically showed a different variation of the same pattern and the positioning of the high is fundamental because only yesterday it was a toppler and sinked south but the 18z Op has some good agreement and support from control and the ECM shows cold lasti until 8th with temps hovering around freezing or below all day on 6th January. Still plenty of time for it to flip back to mild but it's looking likely we will see a cold spell albeit brief but ...we shall see? At best we will see a colder spell by the New year...but how long for? Hmm..time will tell.

It’s been a drag hasn’t it. But I don’t mind as long as we can Avoid damaging winds 

As Q has pointed out some parts of Scotland could get a foot or more. And of course Sheffield will get a meter 😉. As ever time will tell alot depends on how the low around 144 behaves and develops. 

Well, to be fair most of the criteria for an "ensemble watch" have been met - there are consistently members showing -10 and there are some ice days mixed in. The third criteria is whether I think there's a reasonable chance of it happening... I've refrained over Christmas as I just don't trust the modelling. That said, as it's been a long time and we're still in the festive period I'll start one going. I've much lower confidence in it coming to anything down here though, but you never know...

As a reminder, these are based on the Meteociel ensemble charts for London, and show how many members of each suite bring -10 or lower 850s during the 384-hour period. Extra cold runs (-15) will be highlighted in blue on the chart. I'll keep this up for a week or so, by which time we'll know one way or another whether the snowy January drought is going to be broken down here.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/ens.png 

More generally there is still a lot of variability in the output but less so than yesterday and there is clearer clustering around the cold outcomes as we move into the new year. The theme in the medium term seems to be cold but more settled with high pressure in the Iceland region, something that will feel “seasonal”. 

This is the GEFS ensemble mean at day 10:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU00_240_1.png 

But I need that New Year's Day low further south please. 

I'd actually be worried. I think there is a very real risk the the extreme north of the mainland and the northern isles (mostly Orkney/Lewis) are at genuine risk of being cut off. These places don't have good infrastructure. And I know they are used to dealing with large amounts of snow but surely not this much over such a short period. It might not be a bad idea for people that live in that top left corner to have some supplies in case the worst case scenario plays out (again not saying it will, the models exaggerate snow amounts; even so though).

GFS Op 00z - HP hanging on across N France 1030mb for a couple of days before LPs start to run across Britain bringing N-lies in their wake; 1000mb N Sea  Mon 30th, 990mb Scotland Tue 31st, 985mb E Anglia Thu 2nd (but not the monster storm shown yesterday). These LPs run across to Scandinavia and reinforce the large semi-permanent LP there*, then from Sat 3rd Britain is a 'battleground' between HP west of Ireland and LP east of Denmark - could flip either way but always likely colder for East Coast. Then HP moves in as a ridge 1030mb covering Britain from Wed 8th, toppling as deep LP 950mb south of Iceland moves slowly E-wards.

* Where, oh where, is the Scandi High we used to know and love? 

ECM - Like GFS but the LPs Mon 30th/Tue 31st don't amount to anything much, just a general decrease in pressure; that on Thu 2nd is a little further north.

GEM - like ECM, nothing much at first but  LP 995mb English Channel Thu 2nd and then a contrast as HP never moves in from the Atlantic and Britain remains under weak N-lies through to Mon 6th.

GEFS - Heavy pptn Wed 1st (and Fri 3rd in north) accompanied by a sharp drop in temp and the major cluster of ens members staying 5-7C below norm to Wed 8th but some others for England, incl control at first, just as far above, A few dry days but quite pptn in most runs from Mon 5th, heavy in S, less in N. Temps after Wed 8th recover slightly at the expense of disagreement between ens members. Chances of snow from 1/3 in far south to near-certainty in far north.

The Spar in Durness was well stocked - when I was there earlier this year, and walkable from most properties. The road from Kylescue to Durness gets pretty narrow half way up, with passing places. The edges are jagged and can shred your tyres (as happened to me) if you leave the lane outside of a passing place (mind you, I have these stupid low profile tyres you get fobbed off with these days). Mostly you can see cars coming in time, but when you get a nut-case on full throttle passing 3 spaces and catch you in between, you have to leave the road to let the nutter go, and that’s the danger point. Once you get to Durness, there isn’t much infrastructure unless you are a local with the knowledge. My car was recovered to Inverness - 3 hours drive away and I had to pay £200 to get a hire car delivered - and the RAC deal only delivers a replacement for 3 days to your home address (which was 700miles south)! I had to drive The hired car to Inverness to pick up my car, a week after the tyre blow. There are few trees and the alpine scenery extends to sea level. A major snow event would be spectacular up there, but you need a four wheel drive type vehicle.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2024122806/gfs-0-108.png?6 

Even further north. Boo!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_114_1.png 

In isolation I would not read too much into the details at that range but the potential for something disruptive is there over the New Year period.

Agreed. The attention over the next few days will focus on New Years Day and a potentially severe event for parts of the UK. Heavy snow possible (North) and an increasing risk of severe gales (NW) but at this range much to be resolved. On her way to the Pelennor, Eowyn might be visiting the UK with all the fury of a storm.