It goes to show that this is far from nailed-on, but it's still 11 days out - plenty more changes to come, I'd wager.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/63/20955/gens_0_1_264zsw8.png 

Indeed, Darren.

Look at how long it took the models just over a week ago to fully resolve the exact track that Storm Darragh was going to take last Friday and Saturday, for instance.

Wish it was national wide cold like if Scotland get this similar set up by Xmas :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4RRAEgpeU

 -18C in Scotland and we get sub -10C here will be best Xmas cold spell with snow around.  

😮

That’s almost as bad as Brian putting polar bears on the home page. 🤔😉

GFS opens with complex low pressure to the north and a ridge from the Azores High over northern Iberia, sandwiching the UK under westerlies. These are cold enough in the NW  half of Scotland to bring snow, something which continues through the day.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/50/24088/gfs_0_240jch4.png 

The GEFS control has the UK under strong WSW'lies with a broadly similar synoptic setup. The slight change in wind direction means there's no snow to be had, though, with rain over Scotland instead.

We're now seeing fewer clusters in the output, with today's offerings being:

Ridge from south over England and Wales, WSW'lies: 10

Weak ridge over UK, westerlies: 7

Ridge to west, WNW'lies: 6

Weak trough over UK, westerlies: 4

Then there are a few one-offs, including a col over England and Wales with SW'lies elswehere, complex low pressure to the north with cold westerlies, and a trough to the east with relatively cold WSW'lies.

Compared to previous days winds from a westerly quarter are present in all the members, representing anything from widespread snow to wet, windy and mild conditions across the UK. Unusually the spread is quite narrow, mostly WNW'ly to WSW'lies, with SW'lies or SSW'lies absent. The GFS operational run sits towards the colder end of the spread.

Today's standout run is member 4, which has an active cold front sweeping SE'wards across the UK, bringing snow to most during Christmas Day.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/79/17611/gens_4_1_240sot4.png 

Last time I remember snowflakes falling from the sky was on Xmas day in 1970...pretty crazy wait now....I'm sure a short lived cold settled snap early mid January will happen before that gets pummeled away by stormy weather and named storms and a cold snap end of February early March  from a Mojo phase will occur that'll be it.Think heights to south will keep autumn going in the south at least for the next 9 weeks or so...roll on summer!

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-264.png?0 

(*Yes I know it’s not a percentage probability rather the percentage of members showing falling snow, but you get the point)

I have to say that the trend appears to be for the high pressure to be more influential, so we’re left with the positioning. Most likely at the moment is dryish and settled and therefore maybe a chance of it being coldish at the surface.

An inversion looks like a possibility in the south, but the GFS 06Z doesn't get there.

Last time snow fell and stuck on Xmas Day here was 2004. That was from showers on a NW'ly, flipping between snow pellets and flake for about an hour and half. Left around 4-5cm. Skies then cleared and, by 6pm, it was sub-zero and everything froze. Driving was perilous. 

I'd absolutely love a repeat.

(even if it was largely gone by the 27th)

Your location must have been one of those unlucky ones that missed out on a white Xmas in 2009 and 2010, Saint. We had not far off a foot of snow on the ground here on both occasions; in 2010 it has been lying since the start of that freeze in late November.

Oh, we had deep snow on the ground both those Christmases - but I don't think snow fell on the actual day itself.

We also had a thin (1cm) covering in I think 1996 that fell overnight. I was expecting just a frost, so was delightfully surprised when I woke and saw that.

Also had an almost freak snowfall Boxing Day 2014. Very marginal - but an area of SW Lancashire got very lucky. Put about 7-8cm (but turned to rain later in the evening and was all but gone by the morning)

I think that was the last time I saw snow fall on Christmas Day - just enough to give a light dusting. Before that I think there was some sleet in 1999.

And 2010 was the only time (since 1981) that I have seen a covering of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

Snow at Christmas has never been normal in my lifetime, so why do we fuss about it so much?    It's a bit like expecting a thunderstorm on  25th June every year ......

In my case it's because I want to see, just once before I die, snow falling and settling on Christmas Day. That hasn't happened in my lifetime (and I'm 45), the last such time being 1970. In my life there's been snow on the ground (twice, once when I was 2) and a few flakes falling, with no snow on the ground or settling - in a blink-and-you'll miss it, have to look really hard to see them, 30 seconds max thing - twice. I strongly suspect I'll snuff it without seeing proper snow falling (as in seeing it without staring hard at a dark area of the garden) and settling, which is a shame.

Anyway, onto today's analysis!

We're now 9 days away from Christmas Day, and the overall theme is similar to yesterday.

The operational GFS has a large high over northern France, ridging southwards, with the UK under mild WSW'lies. There's rain for NW Scotland, with low pressure to the NW.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/62/2937/gfs_0_216stx2.png 

The GEFS control is similar, also with a high centred over northern France and mild WSW'lies across the UK. There's a bit more rain over northern and western Scotland, but it's still too mild for any wintriness.

Delving deeper, the GEFS members show the following clusters:

High to south, mild WSW'lies: 11

Trough crossing the UK, WSW'lies: 8

High to ESE, southerlies and SW'lies: 3

Ridge to west, westerlies: 2

There are more one-offs compared to yesterday, including SW'lies with a trough to the west, an active cold front moving south with cold NW'lies following behind, and a ridge over England and Wales with SW'lies elsewhere.

The general picture remains a westerly one, with WSW'lies most likely, and a good chance of strong WSW'lies at that. Inside that group is a bit of variation; although most members bring mild air across the UK, a few are cold enough in the far north/NW of Scotland to bring snow.

Today's standout is member 6, which has a trough moving ESE'wards over the UK with sleet and snow in its wake - right down to the south and southeast coasts.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/93/27068/gens_6_1_216yxm2.png 

Temperatures on this morning's 00Z aren't as high. Also, that area of high pressure to the south is looking so robust I do wonder whether GFS could be overcooking temperatures, at least in southern Britain, as it did in early November.