https://images.meteociel.fr/im/27/14988/gfs_0_192fnw1.png 

The operational GFS kicks things off with a large high centred to the immediate SW of the UK, with WSW'lies for most. There's rain for the far NW of Scotland, with more rain clipping Kent. Temperatures are mild everywhere.

Today's GEFS control run is broadly similar, again with a high to the SW and WSW'lies over the UK.

The remainder of the pack show the following outcomes:

High to south or SW, WSW'lies: 21

Trough crossing UK, westerlies: 6

There are few minor one-off variations, and one member with a completely different outlook - number 11, which shows a Scandinavian High ridging SE'wards over the UK. This is also today's standout run, showing a band of rain turning sleety as it moves slowly across the Midlands on Christmas Day.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/32/6240/gens_11_1_192ipn6.png 

The picture today is an overwhelmingly WSW'ly one, with the only real variance being the strength of the wind, or whether there's a trough crossing the UK or not.

I'm loathe to call it at 8 days out (as that's faintly ridiculous), so I'll keep going for another day or two - I'm not expecting much change though!

Hopefully will be sunny at least and not a dirty high

Christmas Day record is 15.6 C and given that it was set back in 1920 (in Killerton, Devon), it looks about time that it was broken. It's the lowest date record for any day in December, only equalled by the 24th (1910, Rhyl, and widely in E Scotland 1931).

Remarkably, the highest date record for any day in December is as late as the 28th; 18.7C at Achfary in Sutherland, 2019. Most other date records for December are 16-point-something. https://www.torro.org.uk/extremes/date-records/max-temp 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/77/27420/gfs_0_168ixm6.png 

...and today there aren't really any clusters in the GEFS, as they all show a WSW'ly flow over the UK with high pressure close to the SW, much like the op. It's highly likely to be a mild, dry Christmas Day for most of us, with rain for the NW of Scotland; there's a small chance of that rain turning to sleet or snow. A few of the members show the rain making further inroads south and east across Scotland.

And with that, I think it's time to call a halt to the countdown - barring something very unexpected, we have a good idea of the weather a week out.

I'll post again on Christmas Day with the actual chart, and it'll be interesting to see how much changes in the meantime. 🙂

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=2&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Absolutely bonkers - presumably something to do with the trough to the west and the hills, a foehn effect that extends all the way up to 850hPa. 15C 850s in summer sunshine would give temperatures comfortably in the 30s, as a comparison.

Even further south, though, there's a large blob of 14C 850s on that chart. The anomaly charts (only available for part of the UK on MC) are zany - yes, that is of course 14C above the long-term mean!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/24/19176/gemfr_15_174zyy1.png 

Of course with insolation at its minimum level this time of year there won't be any help should the sun come out, but the potential is certainly  there for somewhere to smash the current date record. We'll see!

EDIT: And here's the op GFS anomalies - they peak at 12 above normal, with 10 above more widely.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/66/19756/gfs_15_168due3.png 

Come summer we won’t find them anymore summers get cooler to winter temps levels as the way of this modern climate heading too. 

Whisper it but we are due a very hot summer!

Maybe 2025 is the big one

Except that is blatantly untrue: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/summer-mean-temp.png  

Come on Jiries, that’s quite clearly not supported by the evidence, is it!!!

We have a warming climate but also a more chaotic one. But the evidence remains that new temperature records are predominantly seeing new highs and increasingly rarely new lows.

App was going for 15 and sunny to now 10C so if this rate go on might end up 5C or less.

See last summer was below average so it show that UK climate is getting worst with summer cool temps are now almost or matching winter temps with low to mid teens temps.  Either you like or not UK average temps range from winter to summer are narrowing not widening.

Last summer was the coolest for 10 years but compared with the average for 1961-1990 it was warmer than average, which proves how much temperatures have risen.

Comparing 1961-90 with 1991-2020, winter average temperatures have risen by 0.9c whilst summer has risen by 0.8c, ie pretty much the same. So the range has hardly changed in terms of the average, but the extremes have increased.

Here are the annual data and trend again: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/summer-mean-temp.png

So, yes last summer was slightly below average. The trend line however shows the trend clearly and also summer temperatures are not almost matching winter temperatures. The coolest summer days and mildest winter ones have often been in a similar range in the UK.

For comparison last year’s summer (2023) was 0.8°C above the 1991-2020* averages and the 2022 summer was 1.1°C above.

*Bear in mind this climate comparison period is warmer than the 61-90 period too.

...and the real thing ended up as:

Pretty solid really, with a decent forecast all the way from day 8 out. The biggest change was something that's oh-so-common in recent years, a flatter pattern upstream than was originally forecast. That's been the end of many a potential cold spell in the past, and seems to be a bit of a model bias.

See you all again this time next year for another Christmas countdown! 😁

I think it's worth pointing out that today could actually be quite unusual. Most years a white Christmas is recorded at one or more of the official stations. This year it's likely that all will report green. 

I think 2016 was similar, it was certainly very mild here.

Merry Christmas to all on TWO!

Our last white Xmas here (I personally term a white Xmas as being when there any reasonable amount of snow on the ground, irrespective of whether or not any falls from the sky on the day) was 2010. I believe a few places in the north of Scotland did see some snow late on Christmas Day last year as colder air moved south.

Looking at the current model output and especially the GFS 12z op, New Year could well be a very different matter in terms of the weather compared to what we have at this moment.

And we had just had the classic Dec 81 then