I cannot remember the last time the Met office went for a colder than average winter.

Brian when will the two winter 2024/25 forecast be up and running? On the winter outlook page it said end of November? But I can't see it unless it hasn't been published yet?

It should be online today.

I think we need to see the seasonal forecasts as more akin to a prediction of the climate than a prediction of the weather: the forecasts talk about general trends and probabilities; they do not and cannot predict specific weather events. 🙂

Look forward to it Brian - Good luck with it haha! 🙂

MetO

TWO

NetWeather

Winter is over!

An active jet stream may mean a wetter and windier winter

.....

The longer range forecast for December, January and February suggests the jet stream will stay more active than not, which means overall wetter, windier and milder weather.

It means there's a greater chance of more storms to come over the next few months. [source: BBC]

I think Gav has gone for something a bit different.

You could also argue that Mark Vogan has also gone for something different to a certain extent because although he didn't actually go for a cold winter overall, he did mention that there were likely to be some decent cold spells and if that happens, winter is certainly not over by any means.

Perhaps the first sign of the European models moving towards the GFS evolution: the national weather forecast at the end of the 10pm BBC News showed milder weather by Sunday for the south, and said milder next week.  The BBC East local forecast 5 minutes later showed a sleet symbol for Sunday for East Anglia. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c1ee0klzvneo 

Huge fail! 

We’ve been discussing this in the Environment thread in UIA. It’s interesting that’s it’s made its way into the mainstream news.

That’s a bold statement to make on the first day of February, isn’t it? 🙂

It's looking v blocked atm. We'll see.

“Could the UK actually get colder with global warming?

Of all the possible climate futures, there's a scenario where the United Kingdom and north-west Europe buck the trend of global warming and instead face plunging temperatures and freezing winters.

It's not the most likely outcome, but a number of scientists fear that the chance of it happening is growing, and that the consequences would be so great that it deserves proper consideration.

They are concerned that the ocean currents that bring warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic could weaken - or even collapse - in response to climate change.

Huge uncertainties remain about when - or even whether - a collapse could happen. So, how likely is it, and what would it mean?

The system of Atlantic currents, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), is a key reason why the UK is warmer than Moscow, despite being a similar distance from the Equator.

Forming a vital part of our climate system, this conveyor belt distributes energy around the planet, bringing warm, salty water from the tropical Atlantic to cooler regions south of Greenland and Iceland, and also the Nordic Seas.

The warmth from the ocean is transferred to the air above it, helping keep temperatures milder than they otherwise would be.

As this salty water cools, it becomes denser, and sinks, before flowing back towards the southern hemisphere as a deep ocean current. This water eventually gets pulled back up to the surface, and the circulation continues.“

Hope you don't mind, but I'll move this to the media thread.

Indeed they went for very warm hot July last year which turn out cold wet dull month and below average.  LRF need to scrapped and stick to 1980s limited forecasts up to 5 days.