Anything from NE to E is good for me and Darren if it is cold enough and Thames streamers form. S.E. is my best direction for frontal snow to come from or other disturbances from Northern France.

How distant the memory now seems of more than two generations ago of me with my ear against the wireless listening to the Home Service forecast following the shipping forecast at 5.55pm waiting for that magic "heavy snow giving blizzard conditions with drifting". And that wasn't just for the Highlands of Scotland!

Just checked the 850s for that same period in ECM. Look even more interesting.

GFS Op 0z - mainly hp for Britain at first but LP near Iceland extends a trough into the N Sea Fri 6th followed by a deepening low crossing N England and  reaching Dogger 975mb later on Sat 7th with  N-ly gales to follow. Then a quiet spell of HP- controlled weather for Britain though the SE is on the edge of the cold pool over Europe created by that LP. A repeat from Sat 14th as LP this time from NW  crosses Scotland and again ends up in the N Sea 985mb Mon 16th with N-lies, quietening down as before though cold LPs in the final chart Thu 19th are waiting in the N Atlantic.

ECM - by comparison with GFS, the LP on Sat 7th is a weak feature running along the Channel an d merely serving to augment the trough already in the N Sea. Then the cold pool is better defined and more certain to affect England midweek 11th. Final chart has the HP n moving NE-wards Fri 13th; no LP from the NW but instead continental influence as LP 985mb Russia is threatening to bring in E-lies.

GEM - Like ECM to 11th then reverts to an Atlantic theme as per GFS

GEFS - milder with rain 5th-7th then  in the S colder  (5 or 6 C below norm) and dry through to Fri 13th with good ens agreement. Thereafter continuing cool though slowly recovering closer to norm with some rain in most runs. In the N the colder weather sets  in a day or two earlier (with snow in the Highlands) and temp recovers to norm more quickly though less certain to do so. 

I was thinking that the current output is quite unusual and has potential. Nothing especially cold but the pattern suggests rather below average temperatures with the odds tilted more in favour of cold than mild. We keep seeing repeated ridging northwards from the Azores high and raised heights around Greenland, with LPs getting into Scandinavia. The jet stream pattern across the US and North Atlantic is quite disjointed and relatively weak for this point in the year.

Exactly anything but usual dross for time of year and potential for some colder scenarios to play out. Obviously could slip into the usual patterns but that’s not what’s showing at the moment

Some GFS solutions would bring a significant wind event to the south whilst others more a shallow wave along the channel. Definitely one to watch in the next day or so to se how this develops.

Thanks for that, Neil; it prompted me to take a look at the postage stamps. As you say, quite a range of solutions still, from copious rain through to a snow event for North Wales and the North Midlands, some runs with v strong winds, others with not so much.  

Meanwhile the GFS 06z ensemble suite for London shows average to rather below average temperatures with some runs offering sleet or snow on about half the days. 

Further north, for the Edinburgh area it’s several degrees colder, with a slightly heightened snow risk.

The Op was amongst the milder options for much of the second half of the run and almost an outlier for a couple of days.

Looking at Toronto there no signs of deep cold or normal cold weather just mostly above average and just a day of subzero before quckly milder air, they are now having similar temps to here than supposed to be 1C or below average this month.  This help for UK to get some cold spells easier if N America does not get deep cold shots.  

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_384_arctic10.png 

Toronto doesn’t look especially mild if you look at the GFS 06z ensemble suite:  

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=18&lat=43.875&lon=-77.34375&runpara=0&type=6&ext=1 

It's been a theme over the past few decades, you mean - we see that sort of warming pretty much every year.

Inclined to agree. Short milder spells followed by short cooler spells and back again seems to be the theme over the next couple of weeks. All works out about average. Although, as others have said, there is a lot of unpredictability going on as well. 

Bouts of wintry rain for the rest. Uninspiring.

In other words seasonal for the entire country, except that the output is on the cool side of average. 🙂