A repeat of Dec 1938 would be interesting.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1938&month=Dec&dom=17&var=tmp®ion=NA&level=850&hour=00 

I only discovered it a couple of days ago when doing research for my Christmas video.

Remarkable to see all those cold plunges following on from the Atlantic lows in February, getting -5C 850s back then really was effortless.

IIRC 1984 was the last time we had "cold zonality" down here in the far SE, with snow showers on the back end of departing lows.

There does seem to be a shift (in both ECM and GFS ensembles) towards a somewhat colder-than-average spell in just over a week's time. The favoured outlook remains zonal, but the peaks aren't quite as high as normal, and the colder plunges are that bit colder too. It'll be interesting to see if this is the start of a trend (as yesterday's 12z output hinted at), or whether it's just one of those "hallucinations", as it's called when AI goes a bit wonky!

Both GFS and GEM bring the possibility of snowfall to higher ground from North Midlands northwards around next Tuesday, which is definitely something to keep an eye on. UKMO does also show something similar. 

Nothing exceptional for the time of year but on the face of it seasonal at least and the possibility of wintriness at times, particularly further north as you'd expect. 

WRT Brian's earlier comment about the current Northerlies seeming a bit colder than recent years, I think the MetO talked about SSTs oop North being a little cooler than they have been over the last few years at this stage, due to the unsettled weather late summer. May at least partly account for why the last cold shot was punchy enough to bring snow right down to Cornwall.  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

The GEM looks similar at the same time point. Although it’s rather academic at that time range.

In the closer range, many of the models are suggesting, on precipitation (type) charts, snow in some places on Tuesday, mainly on high ground. 

As mentioned by Dave there does seem to be a pattern of northerly shots to one extent or another in a generally mobile picture.

18-26th Dec [1938]., general heavy snowfall, 1ft in east, 2ft Dartmoor.

25th Jan., southern England and south Wales, Berks, Hants., Wilts. 2ft (14in Hampstead)

https://durhamukweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html 

It was all over by Christmas though.

GFS Op 0z - troughs regularly moving from the Atlantic across Britain (Mon 2nd, Wed 4th, Thu 5th, Sat 7th), S-lies before and N-lies after. the troughs mostly weak and affecting mainly the N. The last of these has a bit more 'oomph', as deep as 980mb Faeroes. Then HP ridges up from the SW, just about covering Britain; although winds become NW-ly the air has travelled round the top of the high from mid-Atlantic so not cold. Finally, the HP sinks S-wards after Sat 14th with strong W-lies as LPs travel along their usual corridor aimed at the Faeroes (970mb Sun 15th, 980mb Mon 17th) while pressure stays high over France.

ECM - like GFS with variations:  LP on Thu 5th is deeper (985mb Hebrides) and that on that on Sat 7th is further south (995mb Wales) . Then the HP reaches further NE-wards into Scotland with NE/E-lies for the south

GEM - somewhere between GFS and ECM, if anything inclining to ECM

GEFS - most ens members following the same up-and-down temp pattern, mild now, cool Tue 3rd, mild again Fri 6th, cool Sun 8th, before spreading away from each other. Mean stays near norm but e.g. in the S on Fri 13th the op is 6C above and control 8C below. Rain in modest amounts  Wed 4th to Sat 7th, bits and pieces irregularly before and after. Temp swings less marked in Scotland and rain always more probable in the far NW.

But in FI it gives a good northerly,  But Id rather bin this run!

The second one looks worse, with a core of hurricane force winds moving down the North Sea on Saturday, with potentially force 10-11 gales down eastern coasts from Scotland to East Anglia through the day.

Christmas 1945, that was!

I won’t call it cold zonality as it seems to cause some angst for us southerners…. But it looks much like that. 🙂

Yep, looks like Storm Darragh (the next named storm on our list after Storm Connal) could well be officially named by either the Met Office or Met Eireann by then.

Just a breeze compared to that awful 36 hours of near-gales we had down here last week - that saw 36 hours of forecast gusts in the 50s and 60s, whereas this morning's output is in the high 40s for 12 hours, and 40 or less beyond that (GFS), or below 40 throughout (MetO raw). Much more bearable, but far enough away that it could still change. It looks more lively further north and west, but even then - it's not looking as bad as that 36-hour blast.

I'd agree though that as it stands Sunday will feel raw - it looks like another blast of Arctic, low-dewpoint air. If nothing else that'd dry the ground out!

GFS Op - the trough moving into the N Sea tomorrow now forecast to be deeper, further south and with stronger following N-lies. HP struggling to move up from the south in the coming week, but knocked back by a weak trough Wed 4th and a deeper LP 965mb Fri 6th. As the latter moves away, an area of LP moves up from the SW deepening as it crosses Britain to 975mb Denmark Sat 7th. Both these LPs combine to set up Arctic N-lies HP  1050mb W of Ireland Sun 8th soon cuts these off but  the HP retreats and a couple of LPs run down the N Sea with cold N-lies affecting E Britain (central N Sea 970mb Fri 13th, Denmark 985mb Sun 15th)

ECM - similar to GFS until after Sun 8th when the Irish HP ridges to Scotland and the Danish LP moves SW-wards to produce strong and potentially cold NE-lies for England

GEFS - cool Tue 3rd, mild Thu 5th, cool/cold Sun 8th, in the S temps slowly recovering to norm by Tue 17th but more quickly in the N - good ens agreement for first week and not bad thereafter in the S but poor in the N. Rain most likely later this week and then around Friday 13th

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-31-5-276.png 

Ensemble mean Z500 anoms shows a strong signal for a deep mid atlantic ridge. Its not the greenland high you want for a prolongued cold spell but we are starting to trend in that direction.

Agreed not on the level of last weekend although with the unusual strong wind direction might have some impact.

Not sure on tides but coastal flooding probably an issue and definitely for the Low Countries.

Better than mild damp south westerlies!

The 1st attempt is midweek when we get a brief height rise north of the UK and over Scandanavia. This is a fairly weak blocking attempt but it is the start of a trend,.

The 2nd attempt comes next weekend, when we get a strong midatlantic high ridging north towards greenland and the UK in a pm flow. Although this ends up being a northerly toppler style situation, the blocking is stronger and higher than the 1st attempt.

The 3rd attempt, if it happens (we are into FI at this point) comes a few days later midweek (around 10 days away) we get a second ridging attempt further west this time, and now into greenland. This seems to produce more of a serious northerly in most solutions.

And I should say that although we are not likely to see serious prolongued cold until the 3rd attempt (if we do at all), all three attempts come with the risk of transient snowfall.