I assume you were discussing the 06z GEFS suite. If so, you must have been reading them incorrectly as 15 members dipped below -5°C for t850hPa for London.

(For this location all but one member went below -5).  

Until we get higher heights in the north I can't see much arising.

GFS Op - the 'legacy' from storm Bert referred to in previous reviews has greatly intensified and is now storm Connal in it own right, 1000mb German Bight by midnight but moving on quickly. As before, pressure rises behind it, but the HP in today's forecast then moves further east (now 1035mb Ukraine Sun 1st) allowing troughs to affect more of Britain than just the western coasts  and ushering in a mobile spell of weather - 1005mb generally for Britain with N-lies Mon 2nd, 990 mb Irish Sea Wed 4th, 975mb Hebrides Fri 6th. the last of these develops into an elongated trough from the N Sea down to Italy persisting with NW-lies for Britain until Fri 13th. At the end the Azores HP appears to be making an approach to the SW.

ECM - like GFS to Mon 2nd, but then leaves out LP Wed 4th, and that on Fri 6th does not develop to the SE, continuing HP more generally over Europe setting up a spell of zonal weather with W-lies not NW-lies.

GEM - closer to ECM; indeed more HP-dominated, the HP cell appears Wed 4th close to/over Britain, only just about breaking down Fri 6th with deep LP well to the N near Iceland

GEFS - mild and mostly dry to Mon 2nd, then back to norm  (indeed a brief sharp dip for Scotland)with rain setting in for many runs. Poor agreement for ens members after this date - mean temp is slightly below norm but by Wed 11th this is in the middle of a +/-10C range

All feels very 2017 to me....

Remind us? 

Obviously we had the Beast in Feb 2018 but I cant remember anything special before 

We had 14cm of snow on 10th December 2017. Some pics here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather-news/4102/berkhamsted-snow-gallery 

We didn't (we got a slushy dusting on the 12th, which didn't last long)

PV is trying to form, but struggling to become that horrible, singular blob due to areas of HP popping up over the Arctic, which is a small positive, I guess.

Otherwise, once again, the ridging AH (eastwards/north-eastwards) is our enemy. 

That blob of HP that forms to our NE in GFS's latest FI looks 'topple-y'

Was thinking something along those lines when I looked at the GFS 6z, although I did mentally add 'or as we like to call it here in the far SE, zonality'. 😜 I imagine on the ground it'd range from cool and damp to cold and damp for most of the time, although as usual hillier areas further north would potentially see snowfall.

In any case it's an interesting run purely because the cool/chilly air dominates with only brief milder slices rather than the more typical mild stuff with brief lee northerlies affecting Scotland/Northern England. 

The amount of rain shown over the Channel and northern France suggests there won’t be a block of high pressure sitting there, so perhaps it will be proper zonality and not the version that gets displaced north.

We had a week of pretty frequent snow showers here in mid-January 2018 during a spell of cold zonality, about 6 weeks before the Beast struck. The snow we had from the west in January gave quite a covering here for a number of days.

Had a lot of wet hill snow events followed by hard frosts in December 2017....lot of cold rain too in Kent...and the 2018 event followed .....this winter is showing a lot of potential at present....Still got to keep an eye on heights to the SW though....

The funny thing is that the recent cold spell (with snow for some) popped up at relatively short notice, and wasn't predicted by those who dwell in teleconnections. I remain sceptical of their worth, and just see them as an alternative way of viewing the pressure and rainfall charts.

The London GEFS retains its usual winter sine-wave look (with the waves out of period at the end, causing a mess) and there are very few runs touching -10. It does seem shifted down a bit towards the end (instead of the usual +5 to -5 spread, it's more like +5 to -7), but at the moment it's all looking rather zonal.

EDIT: And there'll be no help from the stratosphere either, the vortex is much stronger than usual for the time of year, and even by January it'll only be back to around normal.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202411270000 

Could be worse......could be better 🤔

GFS Op 0z - current HP soon off to E Europe allowing a broad trough to dip down from the north Mon 2nd, followed by a more-or-less zonal set-up , i.e. westerlies with an uncertain balance between LP to the north and HP to the south, an LP embedded in the flow Sat 7th 995mb introducing more unsettled weather as it crosses England. The zonal conditions are completely disrupted by very deep LP 935mb S Iceland Thu 12th quickly running down to the N Sea 975mb with storm force N-lies.

ECM - similar to GFS but zonal flow more disrupted by LP; an extra trough Fri 6th, and the LP after that is over Scotland 995mb on Sun rather than Sat.

GEM - differs from both the above after Wed 4th as HP develops in northern N Sea and persists until at least Sat 7th with strong S/SW-lies for western areas

GEFS - mild and mainly dry to Mon 2nd when temps dip for a couple of days before ens members increasingly disagree. Mean temps a degree or two above norm around Fri 6th and similarly below around Tue 10th within an envelope of +/-5C. Rain likely around Sat 7th, not much at other times.