The Weather Outlook

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nsrobins
18 November 2024 15:07:05
As tiring as it is to read all the ‘north/south’ debate on the various forums, it is a decent essay in the fine detail of the high-res models we have available and a lesson if it needed to be delivered that even the most impressive algorithms will still struggle from time to time with the nuances of the rain/snow situation in the UK.

To be fair, I’d take an old-school screaming easterly any day over this ‘modern’ marginal gunk - nailed on for us far-southerners.

On topic, and the ppn looks to be developing as per a blend of the output and I still expect an area between say Leicester and the M62 corridor to see a covering of snow by the morning.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Saint Snow
18 November 2024 15:24:39

To be fair, I’d take an old-school screaming easterly any day over this ‘modern’ marginal gunk - nailed on for us far-southerners.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Another decent essay would be on how different parts of a relatively small country rely on wholly different weather set-ups to get good snow!

I think there'll need to be some elevation to get lying snow - but do reckon the northern extent of the 'snow area' will be around 60-80 miles further north than the M62.

Incidentally, the latest NW radar has snow now falling across Dumfries and Galloway, but the traffic cams show nothing.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Snowfairy
18 November 2024 15:37:02
Hoping to see something wintery here in North Notts, Retford.
Caz
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  • Advanced Member
18 November 2024 16:06:22

Hoping to see something wintery here in North Notts, Retford.

Originally Posted by: Snowfairy 

Thinking the same here in Warsop.  Although  we visit our daughter in Retford on Tuesdays, so that might prove difficult if we get much. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Saint Snow
18 November 2024 16:09:26
Radar shows rain over us right now but it's still dry.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

scillydave
18 November 2024 16:19:37
Well that's thrown the cat amongst the pigeons a bit. The 12z GEM, GFS and Arome all show a period of snow for Central, South Wales and into parts of the Southwest overnight into Tuesday. 

Interesting times ahead!


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Quantum
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18 November 2024 16:53:08

Well that's thrown the cat amongst the pigeons a bit. The 12z GEM, GFS and Arome all show a period of snow for Central, South Wales and into parts of the Southwest overnight into Tuesday. 

Interesting times ahead!

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

And there is another possible system for northern areas on thursday, pretty uncertain times.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

overland
18 November 2024 16:59:49
Snow already being reported in north Staffs.
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
haghir22
18 November 2024 17:02:32
Chucking it down with rain here in Epsom, coming across the Downs earlier and the car thermometer dropped from 8c to 5c really quickly. Here's optimistically hoping for a surprise in the morning, it certainly had 'that feel' but I know very unlikely.
YNWA
Quantum
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18 November 2024 17:17:31
If I'm honest the pattern is much more similar to yesterday morning's UKV than any of today's runs.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Russwirral
18 November 2024 17:25:39
Heavy sleet here on wirral... big clumpy wet flakes on my windscreen..t emp 3.5*c
Brian Gaze
18 November 2024 17:44:46
I've added snow pellets to the TWO Arome plots after the earlier discussion.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arome.aspx?run=12&charthour=19&chartname=preciprate&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20rate 

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Quantum
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18 November 2024 17:47:38

I've added snow pellets to the TWO Arome plots after the earlier discussion.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arome.aspx?run=12&charthour=19&chartname=preciprate&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20rate 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I'm assuming you do a threshold calculation to determine type bins. You could add sleet aswell by creating a bin that must contain 0.3-0.5 rain and 0.3-0.5 snow.


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

scillydave
18 November 2024 17:59:36

I've added snow pellets to the TWO Arome plots after the earlier discussion.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arome.aspx?run=12&charthour=19&chartname=preciprate&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20rate 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

It's an excellent addition Brian but it totally pooped on my snow party🤣


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Retron
18 November 2024 18:05:41

I've added snow pellets to the TWO Arome plots after the earlier discussion.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Looks good!

I'm curious, though, as to how it works behind the scenes. Does the model (or any model, for that matter) handle mixed precipitation types? We all know full well, for example, that if graupel's around it tends to be mainly in heavier bursts, and there's often bits of rain and sleet mixed in too. The chart as shown by AROME is thus most unlikely to happen, showing as it does a massive area of graupel, as there would be bound to be rain/sleet mixed in.

Similarly, xcweather does something with the GFS data to enable it to come up with sleet forecasts. I know we discussed the other day about GFS having a snow parameter, and how it gets flagged if it's just sleet, but xc is doing something to differentiate between snow, rain and sleet... almost as if there's a "snow amount" and a "rain amount", and if both are non-zero then it defaults to sleet.

I've not looked at raw GRIB data before, though, so don't know how precipitation is handled. For all I know it could just be an "x mm this period" number, then a "snow" or "graupel" flag on top....


Leysdown, north Kent
dagspot
18 November 2024 18:32:10
Ben Rich giving  damp squib vibe on 630 news..  highest peaks, sleet etc 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Quantum
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  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 November 2024 18:43:19

Looks good!

I'm curious, though, as to how it works behind the scenes. Does the model (or any model, for that matter) handle mixed precipitation types? We all know full well, for example, that if graupel's around it tends to be mainly in heavier bursts, and there's often bits of rain and sleet mixed in too. The chart as shown by AROME is thus most unlikely to happen, showing as it does a massive area of graupel, as there would be bound to be rain/sleet mixed in.

Similarly, xcweather does something with the GFS data to enable it to come up with sleet forecasts. I know we discussed the other day about GFS having a snow parameter, and how it gets flagged if it's just sleet, but xc is doing something to differentiate between snow, rain and sleet... almost as if there's a "snow amount" and a "rain amount", and if both are non-zero then it defaults to sleet.

I've not looked at raw GRIB data before, though, so don't know how precipitation is handled. For all I know it could just be an "x mm this period" number, then a "snow" or "graupel" flag on top....

Originally Posted by: Retron 

AROME has I think separate parameters for each precipitation type. If you want to show mixed precip then you can do that by specifying that both the rain and snow parameters are within a specified interval proportion of the total precipitation (which will be the sum of all the precip type parameters).


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
18 November 2024 18:44:27
Sleety snow just started here. My sister 7 miles away near Sutton in Ashfield is reporting big snow flakes there. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Rob K
18 November 2024 18:49:50
A good example of how the weather apps can mislead people. Tomorrow shows a max of 11C on my app. But looking smart the hourly readings that maximum comes at 4am (up from 6C now at 7pm!) and by midday it will be just 4 or 5C. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Saint Snow
18 November 2024 19:00:39
Moderate rain here

(Which is what was forecast - want to see it turn sleety within the next hour or so, then hopefully to snow by midnight)


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Tim A
18 November 2024 19:12:26
Dry here, seems to be stalling , I think we might miss it now based on today's model runs. 
Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Crepuscular Ray
18 November 2024 19:16:56
My oldest is reporting snow falling in the north of Nottingham. She is around 100m amsl. My middle one reporting rain in the south of the city at 50m
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Chunky Pea
18 November 2024 19:19:15
My Davis V2 is currently showing a 'snow' symbol. 3.8c currently and feels bitter out with the wind and rain. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Kev71
18 November 2024 19:21:37
Light snow here in Sheffield (150m approximately)
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
18 November 2024 19:39:40

My oldest is reporting snow falling in the north of Nottingham. She is around 100m amsl. My middle one reporting rain in the south of the city at 50m

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

That sounds about right because it started very sleety here at 2c.  It’s turned to proper snowflakes now at 1.7c.  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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