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Isaac horror show on Fri 11th 😮
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_336_mslp500.png
Fortunately ECM and GEM, though Fri 11th is beyond the end of their published run, show no sign of Isaac moving towards Britain.
Originally Posted by: DEW
We are currently holidaying in Porto (leaving next Saturday) and a possible landfall for Issac in Portugal was mentioned above. What would be the best source of info to keep an eye on Issacs path?
Originally Posted by: wingman
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc for early development
or
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx for E Atlantic later on - latest GFS for longer term but ECM later on as the latter updates
Chichester 12m asl
NHC tracks show both Joyce and Isaac losing their way in mid-Atlantic rather than affecting coasts of W Europe as shown in some models yesterday but still need watching.
You might find this interesting:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240712-modern-hurricanes-are-rewriting-the-rules-of-extreme-storms
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White
A very interesting article, thanks. I have been thinking about the intensity of storms but as mentioned in this, the danger lies in the broader unpredictability associated with a warming ocean, including earlier start seasons and different paths. One might expect more northerly tracks eventually possible, although the unique shape of the gulf and the latitude of the Ethiopian highlands might mitigate to some degree.
A great article.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents
Isaac still a tropical storm S of Iceland by Fri 4th according to NHS forecast
It is forecast to be extra-tropical (I.e. lost its tropical characteristics) by tomorrow.
Current conditions (personal WS)
GFS picking up another potential hurricane hitting the pan handle again next week
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Yes I noticed that, seems like a rather similar path to Helene. The NOAA is watching that area.
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Originally Posted by: doctormog
Yup, as indicated by the white background to the "S" symbols. I know people have been caught out by that in the past. 😁
Originally Posted by: Rob K
ECM and GEM op doesnt pick it up at all though, but some ensembles do
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/crejvrzxgjpt
Looks like Hurricane Helene really packed a punch and has caught America off guard somewhat. North Carolina particularly badly hit could be 600 dead. Very slow response as well by authorities.
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
Given the scale of destruction and the damage to infrastructure is it surprising that the response has been slow in some places? Sometimes I think people expect miracles whenever a natural disaster strikes.
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E
If the Democrats were smart, they'd have had the military on high alert to go there pronto. Voters love seeing boots on the ground trying to help. And there should have been Harris with photo ops and interviews to say she prepared for the worst so that people would be helped quickly.
Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow
Do you appreciate that we’re talking about an area over twice the size of the entire UK? The scale and extent of the damage is almost incomprehensible.
East Galway, Ireland.
I hear that people in the affected areas are planting Ukraine flags in the hope that it will attract much needed aid.
Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea
Well, at least they’ll have some understanding of what Ukrainians have had to endure for the last 30 months, won’t they.
Fortunately ECM and GEM, though Fri 11th is beyond the end of their published run, show no sign of Isaac moving towards Britain keeping it slow-moving in mid-Atlantic.
Isaac reminds me of the Galveston hurricane of 1900, nicknamed 'Isaac's storm' after an early US meteorologist. Still one of the deadliest on record today, a huge storm surge destroyed hundreds of buildings. I recall the sudden change in wind direction in the account I read.
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com
"Milton" - Came out of nowhere all of a sudden we have something in the Gulf and this looks set to become a major hurricane and furthermore it could strengthen more than the model forecasts are usually conservative when it comes to wind speeds/strengths etc. This shows a direct hit on Tampa Bay if this model came off as forecasted.
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
Didn't exactly come out of nowhere, they've been talking about it for best part of a week now.
Well it was not on the NHC model. Usually it shows a percentage of probability like with Helena and yesterday when I checked all I could see was Kirk and Leslie. So Milton obviously strengthened and very quickly.
GFS had picked it up several days ago. But NHC does seem to be very cautious.
The various American experts have been doing a will it/won't it discussion for a about a week now. But the consensus was that it would stay unfocused and just drop copious amounts of rain on Florida. The strengthening to a major hurricane (=cat 3 +) by Tuesday will have caught them out.
Last time a hurricane took a similar track was apparently 1859
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/10/major-landfalling-hurricane-threat-setting-up-for-floridas-west-coast/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/060848.shtml