Just a few hours ago it was (apparently) a disturbance with a 20% chance of developing. Then they sent hurricane recon plane to investigate finding it was already a cat 1 hurricane.

Why is it embarrassing?  The earlier forecast was based on the latest available data. Are you suggesting they should guess?

The expectation is that with satellite data you should know about hurricane formation the instant it happens, if not before; against which, as we've seen already this summer, current models were developed for an era in which SSTs were not as elevated as they are now.

Well, since Oscar developed very fast obviously the satellite data wasn’t sufficiently up to date either.

As for the computer models, that’s not correct: the models are based on physics, so they should deal with warmer oceans - and as we have seen with other storms this season, they do.

As I understand it, the models are modified and improved with feedback from actual situations, which is why predictions of British weather are more accurate if there's a westerly dominance rather than, say, northerly or easterly. As SSTs in the Caribbean and W Atlantic have been unprecedently high, I would expect that a similar feedback process will lead to more accurate hurricane forecasts in the future.

The physics doesn't change, but our understanding of its implications does.

Meanwhile hurricane Kirsty in the east Pacific, far from land, blew up into a cat 5 and died again almost as quickly.

(Cat 3 on landfall)

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/31/asia/taiwan-typhoon-kong-rey-landfall-intl-hnk/index.html 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNA18_96_1.png 

90% chance in 7 days according to NHC, which is as close to certainty as you get from them.

Meanwhile TS Patty has cropped up by the Azores and is forecast to menace N Portugal as a TD in a few days.

Looking at the satellite it already looks like a tropical storm has developed. We'll find out later when the plane goes out to investigate.

EDIT: now officially named Rafael, no change in forecast

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2ldkg59j15o 

140mph in the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte

This peaked at 155mph. Believe it wiped out an island before hitting Mayotte a day or so later.

One of the issues is the remoteness of the island. If a hurricane hits the US for example, tv companies have no difficulty getting tv crews to view the immediate aftermath. Getting tv footage from somewhere as remote as Mayotte is a much bigger. And if there are few or no pictures, there's no story for tv.