The Weather Outlook

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DEW
  • DEW
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17 August 2024 08:06:10
NHC has Ernesto, still as a TS , about 250 miles west of N Irelandon Wed 21st. Agrees well with ECM but not other models
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

MBrothers
17 August 2024 08:09:24
The Bermuda port webcam was fun last night. It’s still dark now tho. 
DEW
  • DEW
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18 August 2024 07:34:54
Ernesto now caught up in the N Atlantic circulation so references to it now in the model output thread
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
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24 August 2024 18:18:49
The Pacific comes alive: Tropical cyclone threats to Hawai‘i and Japan

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/topic/eye-on-the-storm/ 

Looks as if Japan may get a landfalling hurricane. But where is the action for the Atlantic?

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
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29 August 2024 15:04:40
Disturbance in place near usual spot by Cape Verde islands, interesting that since this morning the chance of development as gone up from 20% to 40%. It's showing on GFS and GEM charts in about 10 days' time.
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Quantum
29 August 2024 15:55:35
So it seems the main reason the season has been so subdued is that the African easterly waves have been pushed north giving record amounts of rain over the Sahara desert while not providing the seeds to germinate tropical storms over the hurricane belt.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

DEW
  • DEW
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29 August 2024 17:14:59

So it seems the main reason the season has been so subdued is that the African easterly waves have been pushed north giving record amounts of rain over the Sahara desert while not providing the seeds to germinate tropical storms over the hurricane belt.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Data here:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/unexpected-rainfall-event-sahara-desert-2024-anomaly-fa/ 

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Retron
29 August 2024 17:43:28

Data here:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/unexpected-rainfall-event-sahara-desert-2024-anomaly-fa/ 

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Blimey, parts of the Sahara will get more in a week than we've had here for the past couple of months. I guess that's why Kent is so parched, everything's moved north including the Sahara's rainlessness! 😁

Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
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30 August 2024 07:22:32
But now a couple of Cape Verde disturbances setting out on their traditional track across the Atlantic, the leading one having potential for development, too soon to tell for the other. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
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09 September 2024 07:18:41
TD Six in Gulf of Mexico set to intensify rapidly and make landfall as hurricane just west of New Orleans on Wednesday, EDIT Now (Mon pm) TS Francine

A mid-Atlantic disturbance given 70% odds of developing into a major feature, presumably recurving to become the major mid-Atlantic storm shown on GFS Tue 24th - something like 940mb central pressure at that time

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

+1
DEW
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09 September 2024 16:02:16
Cars plunge into river as super typhoon destroys Vietnam bridge

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqxjn3w9228o 

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

picturesareme
09 September 2024 22:17:44

TD Six in Gulf of Mexico set to intensify rapidly and make landfall as hurricane just west of New Orleans on Wednesday, EDIT Now (Mon pm) TS Francine

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Wouldn't be surprised if Francine bombs out 😉 

The Beast from the East
10 September 2024 00:04:53

Wouldn't be surprised if Francine bombs out 😉 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

NHC only expected a Cat 2, but its been a while since that area was hit so it will be a significant event

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

picturesareme
10 September 2024 01:11:31

NHC only expected a Cat 2, but its been a while since that area was hit so it will be a significant event

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

A strong Cat 3 i reckon... Outside chance of Cat 4

picturesareme
10 September 2024 10:20:06

A strong Cat 3 i reckon... Outside chance of Cat 4

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Perhaps not now as dry air is hindering it 

DEW
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11 September 2024 21:03:46

Perhaps not now as dry air is hindering it 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Francine also now suffering from wind shear, so predicted to be top-end category 1 on landfall, about now. Main damage expected to be from storm surge of 5-10 feet.

TD7 now declared west of Cape Verde Islands and expected to become TS Gordon shortly, but staying away from land. Possibly this is the one playing "Now you see me, now you don't" on the western side of the GFS charts for next week.

TS Bebinca passing close to Okinawa on Saturday and forecast to ramp up to a cat 4 before landfall in China.

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

picturesareme
11 September 2024 21:45:10

Francine also now suffering from wind shear, so predicted to be top-end category 1 on landfall, about now. Main damage expected to be from storm surge of 5-10 feet.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Francine is now a Cat 2 with sustained winds of 100mph.

tallyho_83
21 September 2024 00:01:39
+1
tallyho_83
21 September 2024 01:36:56
Looking at latest GFS - I did notice several tropical storms/Hurricanes etc forming/developing looking at the charts in the Gulf/Caribbean next week, so one to keep an eye on as things could get interesting in those areas.
Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
22 September 2024 23:21:21
If the 18z GFS came about then N.W Florida would be battered by a huge storm/Hurricane:

@ +102

UserPostedImage

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

The Beast from the East
23 September 2024 00:08:55

If the 18z GFS came about then N.W Florida would be battered by a huge storm/Hurricane:

@ +102

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Only just showing up on the NHC website, but no mention of anything potentially serious yet

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

tallyho_83
23 September 2024 22:04:58

If the 18z GFS came about then N.W Florida would be battered by a huge storm/Hurricane:

@ +102

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

FYI

UserPostedImage

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

DEW
  • DEW
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24 September 2024 06:18:17
PTC 9 forecast by NHC to dodge past the western end of Cuba without landfall, and then strengthen into major hurricane (which would be called Helene) as it heads for the Florida panhandle, arriving Thursday.
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

The Beast from the East
24 September 2024 08:38:44

PTC 9 forecast by NHC to dodge past the western end of Cuba without landfall, and then strengthen into major hurricane (which would be called Helene) as it heads for the Florida panhandle, arriving Thursday.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Redneck heartlands in the target zone. 

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

DEW
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25 September 2024 06:53:41
NHC forecast now upgrades Helene to major hurricane (cat 3 +) on landfall Thursday.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/09/tropical-storm-helene-forms-in-the-western-caribbean/  is talking about a record storm surge doing as much damage as the winds

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

+1

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