theweatheroutlook

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DEW
  • DEW
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15 August 2024 06:51:09
Ernesto as cat2/3 hurricane reaching E of Newfoundland on Monday according to NHC, followed by an 'interesting' variety of forecast tracks pointing at N Ireland/W Scotland.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/08/hurricane-ernesto-brushes-puerto-rico-heads-toward-bermuda/ 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
DEW
  • DEW
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17 August 2024 08:06:10
NHC has Ernesto, still as a TS , about 250 miles west of N Irelandon Wed 21st. Agrees well with ECM but not other models
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
MBrothers
17 August 2024 08:09:24
The Bermuda port webcam was fun last night. It’s still dark now tho. 
DEW
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18 August 2024 07:34:54
Ernesto now caught up in the N Atlantic circulation so references to it now in the model output thread
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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24 August 2024 18:18:49
The Pacific comes alive: Tropical cyclone threats to Hawai‘i and Japan

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/topic/eye-on-the-storm/ 

Looks as if Japan may get a landfalling hurricane. But where is the action for the Atlantic?
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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29 August 2024 15:04:40
Disturbance in place near usual spot by Cape Verde islands, interesting that since this morning the chance of development as gone up from 20% to 40%. It's showing on GFS and GEM charts in about 10 days' time.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Quantum
29 August 2024 15:55:35
So it seems the main reason the season has been so subdued is that the African easterly waves have been pushed north giving record amounts of rain over the Sahara desert while not providing the seeds to germinate tropical storms over the hurricane belt.
2024/2025 Snow days (850hpa temp):10 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2), 22/12 (-5), 04/01 (-5), 05/01 (0),14/02 (0), 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6), 13/03 (-6),
2023/2024 8 days 29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 7 days 18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 12 days
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
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ozone_aurora
29 August 2024 17:01:11

So it seems the main reason the season has been so subdued is that the African easterly waves have been pushed north giving record amounts of rain over the Sahara desert while not providing the seeds to germinate tropical storms over the hurricane belt.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Yes, I noticed a lot of sferics over Sahara in the last few weeks when I looked at:-

https://www.sat24.com/en-gb 

and,

https://webflash.ess.washington.edu/ . 

Slightly off topic, I also noticed some cyclonic thundery conditions over central Mediterranean lately. It'll be interesting to see what Autumn will bring in terms of Medicanes (can't find a thread on it). 
DEW
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29 August 2024 17:14:59

So it seems the main reason the season has been so subdued is that the African easterly waves have been pushed north giving record amounts of rain over the Sahara desert while not providing the seeds to germinate tropical storms over the hurricane belt.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Data here:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/unexpected-rainfall-event-sahara-desert-2024-anomaly-fa/ 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Retron
29 August 2024 17:43:28

Data here:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/unexpected-rainfall-event-sahara-desert-2024-anomaly-fa/ 

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Blimey, parts of the Sahara will get more in a week than we've had here for the past couple of months. I guess that's why Kent is so parched, everything's moved north including the Sahara's rainlessness! 😁
Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
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30 August 2024 07:22:32
But now a couple of Cape Verde disturbances setting out on their traditional track across the Atlantic, the leading one having potential for development, too soon to tell for the other. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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09 September 2024 07:18:41
TD Six in Gulf of Mexico set to intensify rapidly and make landfall as hurricane just west of New Orleans on Wednesday, EDIT Now (Mon pm) TS Francine

A mid-Atlantic disturbance given 70% odds of developing into a major feature, presumably recurving to become the major mid-Atlantic storm shown on GFS Tue 24th - something like 940mb central pressure at that time
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
DEW
  • DEW
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09 September 2024 16:02:16
Cars plunge into river as super typhoon destroys Vietnam bridge
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqxjn3w9228o 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
09 September 2024 22:17:44

TD Six in Gulf of Mexico set to intensify rapidly and make landfall as hurricane just west of New Orleans on Wednesday, EDIT Now (Mon pm) TS Francine

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Wouldn't be surprised if Francine bombs out 😉 
The Beast from the East
10 September 2024 00:04:53

Wouldn't be surprised if Francine bombs out 😉 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


NHC only expected a Cat 2, but its been a while since that area was hit so it will be a significant event
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
picturesareme
10 September 2024 01:11:31

NHC only expected a Cat 2, but its been a while since that area was hit so it will be a significant event

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


A strong Cat 3 i reckon... Outside chance of Cat 4
picturesareme
10 September 2024 10:20:06

A strong Cat 3 i reckon... Outside chance of Cat 4

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Perhaps not now as dry air is hindering it 
DEW
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11 September 2024 21:03:46

Perhaps not now as dry air is hindering it 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Francine also now suffering from wind shear, so predicted to be top-end category 1 on landfall, about now. Main damage expected to be from storm surge of 5-10 feet.


TD7 now declared west of Cape Verde Islands and expected to become TS Gordon shortly, but staying away from land. Possibly this is the one playing "Now you see me, now you don't" on the western side of the GFS charts for next week.


TS Bebinca passing close to Okinawa on Saturday and forecast to ramp up to a cat 4 before landfall in China.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
11 September 2024 21:45:10

Francine also now suffering from wind shear, so predicted to be top-end category 1 on landfall, about now. Main damage expected to be from storm surge of 5-10 feet.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Francine is now a Cat 2 with sustained winds of 100mph.
tallyho_83
21 September 2024 00:01:39
This is interesting to read:
https://theconversation.com/experts-predicted-more-hurricanes-in-the-caribbean-this-summer-where-are-the-missing-storms-238824 

https://theconversation.com/experts-predicted-more-hurricanes-in-the-caribbean-this-summer-where-are-the-missing-storms-238824 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


+1
tallyho_83
21 September 2024 01:36:56
Looking at latest GFS - I did notice several tropical storms/Hurricanes etc forming/developing looking at the charts in the Gulf/Caribbean next week, so one to keep an eye on as things could get interesting in those areas.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
22 September 2024 23:21:21
If the 18z GFS came about then N.W Florida would be battered by a huge storm/Hurricane:
@ +102
UserPostedImage

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


The Beast from the East
23 September 2024 00:08:55

If the 18z GFS came about then N.W Florida would be battered by a huge storm/Hurricane:
@ +102
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Only just showing up on the NHC website, but no mention of anything potentially serious yet
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
tallyho_83
23 September 2024 22:04:58

If the 18z GFS came about then N.W Florida would be battered by a huge storm/Hurricane:
@ +102
UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


FYI
UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


DEW
  • DEW
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24 September 2024 06:18:17
PTC 9 forecast by NHC to dodge past the western end of Cuba without landfall, and then strengthen into major hurricane (which would be called Helene) as it heads for the Florida panhandle, arriving Thursday.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

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