Interesting - thanks for sharing! above.

This is the latest so far - apparently the central pressure of Milton is now down to 905mb

https://youtu.be/2wcx0DBU5lI?si=HKqqy5gO2n1lyPCN 

What is also very bizarre is how Milton is going from west to east in the Gulf - usually it goes from east to west or south to north etc!?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFiY5yq5sbU 

Milton’s expected track from the western Gulf to the west coast of Florida is unprecedented in living memory. In data going back to 1851, only three hurricanes – all of them prior to 1900 – moved from the vicinity of the Bay of Campeche to make landfall in western Florida. Unlike the more common approach from the south-southwest, Milton’s approach from the west-southwest is giving Milton much more time than usual to evolve over the Gulf before landfall.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/10/category-5-milton-poses-an-exceptionally-serious-threat-to-floridas-west-coast/ 

Incredible.  Scary as well.   😞 

That's almost like the 850 hpas being dragged down to almost sea level. 

The link I posted earlier forecast this weakening as part of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

Good news in terms of the strength of the wind, bad news in terms of the storm surge as it means that hurricane-force winds will now extend over a larger area (the eye was only a few miles across) and enhance the surge.

I don't think it was an ERC that caused the weakening; doesn't look like one from the satellite imagery or microwave data.

If I had to guess the mountainous terrain to the south disrupted an inflow layer and caused the inner core to degrade. Its a little suprising since the land is relatively far away from the centre of the storm; but these things are not always obvious. There was also a little island near the eye; its possible the inner core was so tightly bound that the island messed it up.

But I don't think it was an ERC; no big spiral bands prior.

That’s not correct, the commentary referred to signs of an eye wall replacement cycle, which has the effect of weakening the hurricane - but expanding the area of the storm.  Once the eye wall replacement has completed then it’s normal for a hurricane to strengthen again, if conditions are favourable; but in this case increased winds shear and ingress of drier air is likely to inhibit further strong development as it approaches the west coast of Florida.

From the 4am CDT NHS update:

“The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight.  The

pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data

showed a double eyewall structure.  More recent microwave images

show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is

completing an eyewall replacement cycle.  These eyewall replacement

cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak

winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. ”

I disagree with them. The earlier double eyewall structure could have led to an ERC but it did not, and those outer rainbands fizzled. The inner core became disrupted quite suddenly and it appeared to be unrelated to that convection which had already severely weakened by that point. I'm still thinking land interaction not ERC.

You disagree with the experts on the subject?  Gosh

I am technically an expert on this subject if it matters.

I am allowed to disagree.

But even if I wasn't an expert in the traditional academic sense, that doesn't mean you aren't allowed to have opinions if you are informed enough about the subject matter. Anyone who has read enough papers on the subject can have an opinion.

I’m not saying you can’t disagree, I’m just expressing surprise that you think you know better than the guys who have access to all the data and have the greater knowledge and experience.

Well my doctorate was in a subject not a million miles away from this subject. But that's not the point. I'm not saying I know better, I might be wrong, I have enough expertise to have a different opinion about this subject while not invalidating anyones knowledge and experience. To me this doesn't look like an ERC. I'm sure papers will be written on this subject in a couple of years, so perhaps I will change my mind. But to me it looks like land interaction of some kind.

The points against it is that:

- the double eyewall structure became *less* prominent not more. If this was an ERC you'd expect the outer rainbands to get stronger and more symmetrical; the opposite happened.

- the weakening was very rapid; I'd expect something a bit more gradual with an ERC

- not a huge amount of evidence of a wind field expansion which would be expected with an ERC

But what I do think is that a pinhole eye structure means a very small tightly bound inner core. I don't think it would take much to disrupt it. The little island could be enough; or perhaps Yucatan cut off an inflow layer. It doesn't look to me that the eyewall has been replaced by any outer convective structure; but that something has disrupted it.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents  

Briefly down to 897 hPa. Its intensifying again now, the eye has cleared out and the presentation is improving.

Perhaps only a few hours left before the vertical sheer kicks in and it weakens again, but the storm surge and flooding is baked in for large areas  regardless